1. Models will improve—but how much? There is serious concern that the rate of progress for artificial intelligence is actually slowing down—perhaps there are diminishing returns on large language model investment. Will we achieve AGI—some artificial superintelligence—in 2025? Likely not. If anything, the models could start to underwhelm. If that happens, maybe the hype cycle for AI will begin to twilight. It’ll be up to the industry’s leaders to prove to the public and to investors that the future is bright—even if it requires some patience before the much-hyped awesome future of AI reveals itself.
2. Meet your new assistant: In 2025, you will encounter AI that looks slightly different. Corporate leaders are focusing on multimodality, the idea that chatbots should be able to use text, images, videos, and more all in one interface. But AI executives are already talking about the next great thing: AI agents. These models, in theory, will be able to perform tasks for you — like fill in time cards or order your groceries — not simply chat with you and answer requests. But do we trust AI programs to actually work autonomously? Or should they stay completely responsive to our every line to text?
3. Labor will fight back: Organized labor has already pushed back against the advent of artificial intelligence, especially in Hollywood and the video game industry. Expect that creative workers from all walks of life may get more frustrated with AI companies allegedly ripping off their work and not compensating them for it. That could mean more lawsuits, but also more strikes. Can labor and tech find a happy compromise? It could prove crucial.
4. Trump will refocus regulation: President-elect Donald Trump will take a hands-off approach to regulating artificial intelligence — unless AI companies cross him. Right now, tech leaders from Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and even Perplexity are donating to Trump’s inaugural fund in order to get on his right side. But we’ll also see the influence of AI executive Elon Musk on the administration: Will he enact his own revenge, or use his position in charge of government efficiency to cut federal contracts for AI?
5. War will get more automated: The government may not fully embrace AI in all of its departments and agencies, but the military almost certainly will. We’ve written extensively about how the Pentagon is embracing AI and firms are lining up to become defense contractors or bolster their existing contracts with additional AI services. And with the AI industry still searching for a profitable business model—ignoring the ethics of it all—why not defense contracting?