GZERO North
Trump anxiety again builds north of the border
President Donald J. Trump (R) meets with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (L) in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 20 June 2019.
Reuters
The prospect of a second Trump administration is worrying millions of Americans, but plenty of Canadians are feeling a similar anxiety — including those in Justin Trudeau’s government. Last week, Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the US, played it cool, saying the country is “ready and prepared and able” to work with either Joe Biden or Donald Trump, noting the presumptive Republican presidential nominee “doesn’t worry us.”
But Hillman’s words obscure the frantic preparations in Ottawa for a potential Republican White House. Just four months ago, Trudeau said of a potential Trump win: “It wasn't easy the first time and if there's a second time, it won't be easy either.”
The Trudeau government is all-in on a “Team Canada” approach that emphasizes the close relationship between the two countries nationally and subnationally. That means working political and industry contacts in Washington and pivotal states, both by the federal Liberals and provincial allies.
The Trump administration brought troubles for Canada – including a rocky renegotiation of the free trade deal between the two countries. Should Trump win again and make good on his promise of a protectionist agenda, Canada could find itself at the bargaining table once again.
Trump is also a severe critic of Canada’s defense spending, which he thinks is far too low. Last month, he threatened to leave NATO allies who fail to spend 2% of GDP on defense — this includes Canada — to fend for themselves. So, Canada is preparing for an anxious few months up north, and possibly, several years to follow.
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The US-Canada relationship has long been one of the closest partnerships in the world, but tensions have emerged since Donald Trump returned to office. The timing is far from ideal: the USMCA trade agreement is up for review in a few weeks.