German army servicemen participate in NATO's Quadriga 2024 military exercise in Pabrade, Lithuania May 29, 2024.
REUTERS/Ints Kalnins
He’s not even president yet, and Donald Trump is already making huge waves in Europe. According to the Financial Times, his aides have been quietly letting European capitals know that the incoming president will do three things:
- Demand that NATO countries increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP. That’s nearly triple the current non-binding standard of 2%. During his first term, Trump used the implied threat of withdrawing from the treaty organization to scare members into meeting that benchmark Mr, and about two-thirds of NATO members now do. But no one is even close to 5%, a level that would put an immense strain on most European economies. Poland currently leads with just over 4%, while the US is at about 3.5% – a level that, reports say, Trump might settle for alliance-wide.
- Link trade policy preferences to this standard – in other words, countries that meet this standard will get better terms with the US than those that don’t. In this context, remember that Trump has promised to put blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all imports to the US.
- Continue supplying weapons to Ukraine to ensure that the country is well-armed enough to sustain any peace deal with Russia, but without ever joining NATO.
The context: For decades, European allies were confident in the US commitment to collective defense through NATO and to free trade. No longer. Trump wants Europe to contribute more to its own defense rather than rely on the Cold War legacy security umbrella provided by the US. He has no problem linking that demand with trade policy in order to use America’s economic muscle to get what he wants.
The caveat: Trump won’t take office for another month. These demands may be preliminary, and they could certainly be flexible. But at a minimum they bring into focus the main features of Trump’s foreign policy towards Europe.