Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Will these new charges finally sink Trump?
And the answer is probably no. Special counsel Jack Smith this week announced a new set of indictments against President Trump for tampering with and destroying evidence in the case related to his mishandling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. President Trump has survived multiple rounds of scandal, legal challenges, and ethical lapses that would've sunk any other politician. And politically, it sure looks like this one's not going to make much of a difference. He's still on top of the dog pile. That is the Republican presidential nomination process, and there probably won't be any consolidation or action on that until the first votes are cast in Iowa in January. What this does mean, however, is that it increases his legal jeopardy because it seems unlikely that the special counsel would've brought these additional charges if he didn't think he had sufficient evidence to find him guilty in a court of law.
So, for President Trump, the best hope he has is that it's impossible for Smith to find a jury that would convict him, or that he can get out of this in some kind of legal technicality because the evidence that's starting to mount against him, both for the mishandling of the documents and now for obstruction of justice sure looks pretty bad. The trial is set to begin in May of next year, which means that a guilty verdict could come down even before the Republican Convention in July. And if not then, then maybe before the November election, or of course he could be acquitted. If he is found guilty, the sentencing would be the big question. Does he get sentenced before the election and does he continue to run from office while he's serving in jail? So, lots of unprecedented questions coming out about this latest case as President Trump continues to destroy norm after norm of American politics.