Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses

Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses | World In :60 | GZERO Media

How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going? Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern? Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?

Well, it's just started. It's a little premature to ask me that question. Right now you're looking at probing attacks, artillery for the Ukrainians to try to assess where Russian defenses might be weakest so that when Zelensky gives the order for the full counteroffensive, it's starting, but not with masses of troops, that it's most likely to succeed. There is general optimism right now. The Russians are dug in along three lines of defense in southeast Ukraine. There's pretty significant optimism the Ukrainians will be able to break through one, at least maybe two of those lines of defense, which puts them in striking distance of artillery of the coast of the Sea of Azov, which means being able to threaten the land bridge to Crimea. That's a pretty big deal. It improves Ukraine's ability to negotiate if that happens after the counteroffensive is over.

Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern?

Well, the elections were free. They were fair, but the system structurally advantages the military and the pro-military parties and electors. The military gets to determine basically a large percentage of those people that form a government. What that means is that even with a massive win for the pro-democracy opposition, the possibility that they form a government is pretty much a coin flip. It's about 50-50 right now. The structural disadvantages for pro-democracy forces in Thailand are that great. It's going to be a very hard-fought few weeks and we'll see where it goes, but I would not yet hold my breath that this is a meaningful transition election in Thailand. Still though, there's an opportunity, as there isn't in Turkey, as Erdogan is likely to win, very likely to win is in the second round.

Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage?

I don't know if I'd say the global stage. Remember this is in the Emirates. It's Abu Dhabi. There has been a re-engagement of the Gulf States with Syria's Bashar al-Assad. That does not change the way the United States is feeling about Assad, or most of the Europeans for that matter. But despite the red line and the whole, "Assad must go," that President Obama once said, and Obama's well gone, Assad is still there and Assad is now increasingly someone that you engage with internationally. It is harder to say no to rogue states when other countries are prepared to deal. Hey, Venezuela is now pumping more oil and Chevron's licenses have been re-approved. Any other gas exploration is now happening. Same Maduro, but the United States with the war in Russia going on and with Ukraine is saying, "Hey, we need to work with these guys." Basically what we're seeing is that more and more tolerance for countries and rogues that act in despicable impunity, but nonetheless, less capacity, less willingness of the world to bring them to bear, and Assad is a piece of that.

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs? I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? Why does Trump want to take Greenland? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

President Donald Trump, seen here on the South Lawn of the White House in February, is set to unveil his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

REUTERS/Craig Hudson

T-Day has arrived. On Wednesday afternoon, Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners will take effect immediately after a Rose Garden announcement.

A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.
REUTERS/Florence Lo

Beijing conducted one of the largest and most provocative military drills ever around the island -- but why now?

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing, Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2025.
Ukrinform/ABACA via Reuters Connect

Vladimir Putin insists that Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer Ukraine’s legitimate president because his government has imposed martial law and delayed elections that were due in 2024.

President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office flanked by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the day he signed executive orders for reciprocal tariffs, Feb. 13, 2025.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Details of a group chat between senior administration officials that leaked last week – the so-called Houthi PC small group – provide allies, adversaries, and watchers with revealing insights into the administration’s foreign policy blueprint. Lindsay Newman explores the takeaways.

Proud Source became a Walmart supplier in 2021. Today, its team has grown by 50%, and it's the largest employer in Mackay, ID. Walmart supports small businesses across the country, and nearly two-thirds of Walmart's product spend is on products made, grown, or assembled in America. It’s all a part of Walmart’s $350 billion investment in US manufacturing, which helps small businesses grow and supports US jobs. Learn more about Walmart’s commitment to US manufacturing.

As Microsoft celebrates its 50th anniversary, Vice Chair and President Brad Smith sits down with company cofounder Bill Gates for a special episode of Tools and Weapons. They discuss Gates’ new memoir, "Source Code: My Beginnings," reflect on Microsoft’s impact over the past five decades, and explore why the next phase of the digital revolution is shaping up to be the most exciting yet. Subscribe and find new episodes monthly, wherever you listen to podcasts.