Ukrainians and North Koreans clash in Russia. Could NATO get involved?

​Ukrainian service members of the 43rd Hetman Taras Triasylo Separate Artillery Brigade fire towards Russian troops in a Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a position in Donetsk region, Ukraine October 26, 2024.
Ukrainian service members of the 43rd Hetman Taras Triasylo Separate Artillery Brigade fire towards Russian troops in a Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a position in Donetsk region, Ukraine October 26, 2024.
REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi

Ukrainian officials said Monday their troops had fired upon North Koreans in the Kursk region, which Ukraine has partially occupied, in the first known contact between the two sides. Thus far, the action has been confined to Russian territory, where North Korea can point to its mutual defense pact with Russia for some legal cover (not that Pyongyang has admitted it deployed a single soldier yet), but what happens if the Korean People’s Army pushes into Ukraine proper?

It’s a possibility the US is eager to head off, according to Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer. “The United States sees North Korean combat troops entering Ukraine (as opposed to Kursk, on Russian territory) as a major escalation in the war — and has warned Russia that such a decision would risk NATO troops being sent into Ukraine,” Bremmer said after discussions with senior Biden administration officials. The National Security Administration and NATO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

There are reasons for skepticism: Ukraine is not a NATO member and has expressed great frustration with its allies over how fear of escalation in Western capitals has clipped its military’s wings and resulted in preventable civilian and military deaths. How seriously Russian President Vladimir Putin takes it all depends heavily on the results of the US election tomorrow, as a second Trump administration would be much friendlier to Russian interests.

But Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says Moscow ought to be well aware of the risks. “As soon as North Korean troops cross into sovereign Ukrainian territory, it would make resolving the conflict far more complicated,” he says. “It would also engender a dramatic response from the West, and you could even see the Chinese come off their preferred position right on top of the fence because this would not be in Beijing's interests and would be a pretty flagrant violation of China’s five principles of peaceful coexistence.”

More from GZERO Media

Mastercard made a commitment in 2020 to help 50 million more small businesses accept card payments by 2025, a goal it recently met. Many entrepreneurs are tapping into digital commerce to gain an edge, harnessing the broadcasting power of social media and the data insights revealed by modern payment systems while offering shoppers more choice and convenience in how they pay. Read more about how Mastercard is helping provide small business owners with the newest payment technologies and data insights so they can succeed in the digital age and build a stronger, more resilient economy.

- YouTube

Trump’s return to power—amid global wars, strained alliances, and economic tensions—could radically reshape the world order. It threatens to deepen rifts with Europe, complicate Middle Eastern conflicts, and push US-China relations to a breaking point. That might not be a bad thing, according to Ian Bremmer. He breaks it down on Ian Explains.

- YouTube

As Trump makes his cabinet picks, there's a lot more clarity on the national security side than there is on the economic side, says Jon Lieber. He breaks down the key picks and the key roles that remain open so far.

Test of a Russian ICBM, launched on October 26, 2024. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has placed its nuclear forces on ready and has increased testing and development of its ICBMs.
Russia MOD via EYEPRESS, from Reuters.

All sides are pulling out the stops right now -- for one important reason.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
REUTERS/Amir Cohen

These warrants will pose a test for Israel’s Western allies if Netanyahu ever plans to visit, and raises questions over how they should interact with the Israeli leader more generally.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., withdrew his bid to become attroney general on Nov. 21 over continuing allegations of sexual impropriety. President-elect Donald Trump appointed him on Nov. 13, 2024.
USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect

Matt Gaetz announced Thursday that after meeting with senators, he would not go through with the nomination process to become Donald Trump’s attorney general, claiming he did not wish to be a “distraction.”

Are you a reporter and writer with creative flair and an academic or professional background in international politics? Do you think it's more important than ever to help the general public understand the dizzying political changes in the world today? If so, you could be a strong candidate to fill our opening for a senior writer on the GZERO Daily newsletter team.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks, on the day of the 114th anniversary of the Mexican Revolution, in Mexico City, Mexico November 20, 2024.

REUTERS/Raquel Cunha

The lower house of Mexico’s Congress approved the text of a constitutional proposal to scrap oversight bodies on Wednesday, a first step in the ruling Morena party’s goal of eliminating autonomous institutions and consolidating power.