Podcast: UN Secretary-General António Guterres explains why peace in Ukraine is his top priority

Transcript

Listen: The challenges facing the world today, from conflict in Ukraine to climate catastrophes across the globe, cannot be solved by one country alone. The need for multilateral solutions between nations, even between warring nations, has never been greater. And yet, as diplomats, ministers, and heads of state converge on the United Nations in New York this week for the 78th annual UN General Assembly, the UN Secretary-General fears that we are entering a time of increased global fragmentation.

"We really need stronger and reformed multilateral institutions to be able to coordinate on what is becoming a multipolar world" Secretary-General António Guterres tells Ian Bremmer in an exclusive interview for the GZERO World podcast. "I would remind you that Europe, before the First World War, was multipolar. But because there was no multilateral governance institutions at the European level, the result was the First World War."

Whether it’s the costly war in Ukraine, lurching towards its third year, or the ongoing climate crisis that, in Guterres’ words is quote “boiling” the planet, the Secretary-General and Ian discuss a wide-array of pressing global issues. And don’t forget our brave new world of artificial intelligence, which will need a new global regulatory framework of its own.

TRANSCRIPT: UN Secretary-General António Guterres explains why peace in Ukraine is his top priority

António Guterres:

The single most important thing is to have peace in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is a complicating factor of everything else. The first thing that we need is to stop that war.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today my sit down interview with UN Secretary-General António Guterres. I met up with him in New York at the UN headquarters, fancy that, just ahead of this year's general assembly. We talked about the ongoing war in Ukraine, the climate crisis that he says is creating, and I quote, a boiling planet and exacerbating hunger and poverty, not to mention a brave new world of artificial intelligence technology without government guardrails. Is it all as bad as it sounds? You are about to find out. Here's my conversation with UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Announcer:

The GZERO World podcast is brought to you by our lead sponsor, Prologis. Prologis helps businesses across the globe scale their supply chains with an expansive portfolio of logistics real estate, and the only end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today. Learn more at Prologis.com.

Ian Bremmer:

Secretary-General António Guterres, thanks so much for joining us again.

António Guterres:

Enormous pleasure to be here again.

Ian Bremmer:

So I want to start with the news that I'm sure is keeping you very busy today, massive humanitarian crisis floods in Libya, thousands and thousands of people, we already know, dead. What is the United Nations prepared to do to help?

António Guterres:

Well, we immediately mobilized all the resources we have in both countries. We have a central emergency response fund and we mobilize $10 million to support the operation in Libya. We are discussing with Moroccan authorities how best we can support them, but of course Morocco has another capacity that Libya lacks and we'll be doing everything to mobilize international community to support these two countries in this very, very tragic situation. Especially, I would say, when one feels that this tragedy in Libya is the result of the war, the conflict, inability to invest in basic infrastructure, it's really something appalling.

Ian Bremmer:

In Libya, a country that doesn't have centralized authority right now, has been fighting a war, I see that at least on the humanitarian front, these two leaders are engaging with each other, are facilitating humanitarian aid. Does that give you any hope that we might more quickly bring an end to this conflict?

António Guterres:

We've seen other situations in which humanitarian needs to bring together people then add consequences. And I hope there is no fighting in Libya. As you know, the problem is to find a political solution allowing for elections and with those elections to create a government with the legitimacy that has been lacking until now. And I hope that these will facilitate an agreement on how to move forward. There are a number of legal questions that need to be addressed, but an agreement on how to move forward allowing for those elections and for the normalization of the political life in Libya. It will not be easy. We know the divisions, we know the problems. Of course, many resistance of many people that, to a certain extent, like to be where they are and they are not sure if there are elections they will still remain. So, we know how complex these situations are, but indeed the suffering of the people may unite politicians to understand that it's better to come together.

Ian Bremmer:

On Russia and Ukraine, last year when you and I sat down just before the General Assembly, there was a breakthrough grain and fertilizer deal that you facilitated along with the Turkish president. We don't have that deal today. These sides are still talking, facilitated in part by you and Mr. Erdoğan. Do you have any hope that we can get back to an agreement that would allow all of these essential commodities to get to the poorer countries of the world?

António Guterres:

Hope is the thing that never dies, but it will not be easy and I'm perfectly aware it will not be easy. We are in an area of escalation, not an area of easy solution of problems, but hope never dies. And of course I will be going on talking with the Ukrainians, with the Russians and with the Turks, because it would be very important for the global markets and especially for prices to come down and for everybody to benefit if we were able to have the Black Sea Initiative back on track.

Ian Bremmer:

On climate, you said coming out of the G20, nothing was accomplished. There was some talk in advance on green hydrogen, on biofuels, but ultimately very little movement. Now, we have the UAE coming up with the COP Summit of course. Every year I hear your speeches on climate, they're not getting any easier. A lot of that is baked in, but a lot of that is inadequate response from the rest of the world. Is the technology at least moving fast enough that it's getting easier to get countries moving?

António Guterres:

Technology is moving very quickly and we are witnessing some extraordinary developments. For instance, China, one of each two cars that they sell now-

Ian Bremmer:

Is electric.

António Guterres:

... in the Chinese market is electric, so there are... The capacity to storage energy is increasing by the day, so there are very good technological developments that make us understand that if there is political will, it is perfectly possible to have the 1.5 degrees still as the limit of temperature growth by the end of the century. But that political will is today dramatically lacking.

Ian Bremmer:

We're not heading to 1.5 right now?

António Guterres:

We are heading to 2.8, if nothing changes. Of course things will change. But we are at high risk too, at a certain moment, make it irreversibly impossible to get 1.5.

Ian Bremmer:

What's the single biggest thing that needs to happen in the near term that would make you feel a little bit more optimistic that we are not moving over the cliff?

António Guterres:

Well, the single most important thing is to have peace in Ukraine, peace based on international law, on the charter of the United Nations. But let's also be clear, I don't see that in the immediate future. But the war in Ukraine has had a very negative impact on deepening the geopolitical divides. The war in Ukraine is a complicating factor of everything else. And so the first thing that we need is to stop that war.

Ian Bremmer:

I see President Lula from Brazil saying that Ukraine is getting far too much attention at the General Assembly and other places, very frustrated. He wants to take a much more global stance. He thinks this is mostly a European problem. What do you say to him? Because we know that the costs of the Russia-Ukraine war are global, they're global costs.

António Guterres:

It is obviously today a global problem and it is undermining the capacity of the world to come together. Capacity was already difficult before, but now it's much more difficult and this is a factor that is poisoning the international political atmosphere, independently of the horrible impacts for the Ukrainian people that is suffering enormously and the impacts on energy markets, food markets and financial markets globally.

Ian Bremmer:

So you just came from India for the G20. The Prime Minister, by all accounts, did a pretty solid job of chairing the G20 process this year. We saw that there was a communique at the end that everyone around the table could make good on. I was thinking back from this summit on your words in Paris a few months ago, on how strongly you called multilateral financing broken for the global south, inadequate. That was a big part of the focus of the G20 this last week. There are headlines, a lot of announcements, but did we move the ball?

António Guterres:

Well, first of all, we need to pay tribute to the Indian Presidency, because they manage-

Ian Bremmer:

Of the G20?

António Guterres:

Of the G20, yes, because they manage to have the voice of the South clearly expressed and they managed to put the development agenda in the center of the work of the G20. And indeed, the declaration that was approved is a declaration that is very strong on supporting the need to overcome the present tragic situation in which the Sustainable Development Goals are not moving forward as they should. They welcomed the SDG stimulus. That is a mega proposal that we made to accelerate the implementation of the SDGs. And there were some important references, namely in relation to the needs for multilateral development banks to be reformed and to be more effective and to have more resources. So, there is a number of things that I believe were important.

On climate, there was no progress. Let's also be clear. But I think that this has created the dynamic that will be useful, I hope, in our summit for the Sustainable Development Goals where we hope to have a clear declaration saying how important it is to have the Sustainable Development Goals stimulus in what it means in relation to debt, in what it means in relation to concessional funding, in what it means in relation to the way SDRs can be distributed or redistributed in a much more effective way. So there are a number of things that would create conditions finally for developing countries to have the resources they need to implement the Sustainable Development Goals. But we hope also to have a clear signal about the needs for reforms of international financial architecture. We have an international financial architecture that was created after the Second World War. It represents the power relations and the economy of that time. It is totally outdated, it is dysfunctional and it is unfair.

Ian Bremmer:

The money for Africa, for example, is completely inadequate in that environment.

António Guterres:

Yes.

Ian Bremmer:

We brought the African Union in now as a member, just like the European Union, of the G20. The leadership of the G20 has been very focused on the global south. Is that enough to move the money? Do we see the Americans, the Europeans, the Japanese, even the Chinese making a response that matters?

António Guterres:

Let's be clear, there has not been more additional money, except in relatively small quantities. Official development assistance will not increase. So the question is; how can we multiply the resources that exist? That is why it is so important to channel the Special Drawing Rights through multilateral development banks. Each dollar will allow them to go to the market, get $5 and make those $5 at the disposal of developing countries. That is why it is so important that multilateral development banks, beyond their loans, are able to provide guarantees and to be first risk-takers in coalitions of financial entities in order to massively mobilize, to leverage private finance. Without private finance we are not going to do it. But multilateral development banks need to concentrate on that in the way they do business, which is a big change in relation to their traditional modus operandi.

And we need to have a serious response to the debt problem. We have a huge number of countries in debt distress. We have a huge number of countries at high risk and many of them simply have no fiscal space for anything. Africa is paying more in relation to debt than in relation to education or else. This is totally unacceptable when we see the dramatic problems that the continent is facing. So, we need to do reforms in the system in order to allow the system to be able to multiply the resources that exist, knowing that those resources are probably not going to increase substantially. But there are different ways. For instance, one thing is for you to provide money to a project. The other thing is to put money on the capital of the World Bank or of any other multilateral development bank. If you provide $1 to a project, it's $1. If you provide $1 to the capital of the multilateral development bank-

Ian Bremmer:

You also get leverage.

António Guterres:

... that will allow them to multiply. So what we need is to redesign the way the international financial system works in order to be able to multiply the resources we have. And then there is another question, a central question is that they are today small. If you look at the World Bank, the paid in capital of the World Bank today is less than one fifths in percentage of global GDP than what it was in 1960.

Ian Bremmer:

Because it hasn't changed in decades basically.

António Guterres:

And so the point is very simple; these reflect the world after the Second World War. They are essentially under the control of the developed countries. But we know we now see a number of emerging economies with a growing role in the global economy. I think it's in the interest of developed countries to reform international financial institutions, to make sure that they correspond to the realities of today economy. By the way, developed countries would still maintain a dominant position, but these would make those institutions truly universal in relation to what the universe is today. And this would also allow to have a meaningful increase in their capital, because the alternative to reform is not the status quo. The alternative to reform is fragmentation.

Ian Bremmer:

And it just breaks down again.

António Guterres:

What we will witness, unless we make our institutions truly universal, what we'll witness is inevitable, the alternatives, the appearance of new institutions and that will not contribute to what I believe is essential, which is to preserve one global market, to preserve one global set of trade rules, to preserve one global internet, open internet, and to preserve the capacity to converge in this global market to deal with the new disruptions caused by new technologies with a minimum of international cooperation.

Ian Bremmer:

Since you've been Secretary General, if we look at the global architecture such as it exists, the big change has not been the G20 getting stronger. The big change has been the G7 getting more aligned and the BRICS being created and strengthened. Is that a reasonable assessment?

António Guterres:

But that is a source of concern, because that does mean that instead of bringing together people, working together in an effective way, we tend to have a fragmentation and-

Ian Bremmer:

Clubs of the like-minded.

António Guterres:

Like-minded working among like-minded and this polarization is not good at global level, as polarization is not good at national level. When we see a country with a polarized public opinion and polarized political groups and polarized media, that doesn't help to solve the problems of the country. If you have a polarized world, that doesn't help to solve the dramatic challenges we are facing and I would name two existential threats; one is climate change and the other is the fact that we have not yet in place any mechanism to guarantee that disruptions caused by artificial intelligence will not become a serious threat to us all.

Ian Bremmer:

Specifically at the G20, so we saw Xi Jinping chose not to come and the premier was there from China. You were in these meetings. Number one, did it matter much that it was the number two and not the one from China that was around the table? And do you think the Chinese were sending a broader message that they want to be in their own more like-minded groups? Is this something that's becoming a bigger deal from China?

António Guterres:

It is clear that we not only have a fracture between developed countries and emerging economies, but we also have fractures within emerging economies. It is clear the relationship between China and India is not an easy relationship. So there are many possible interpretations of what happened. What matters is that the Indian Presidency manage to have a strong impulse from the point of view of recognizing the importance of the Sustainable Development Goals, and I would say a first important shakeup of the present, rigid structures and the recognition that something has to change for our institutions to be able to respond to the problems of today.

This is true for the bilateral system as I mentioned, but it is also true for Security Council of the United Nations. It's true for the World Trade Organization that has been paralyzed, as you know, for a long time, and this is a serious problem for today's economy. It's true about the World Health Organization, and I would like to have the World Health Organization with much more resources and with much more authority. We have seen the lack of authority, how it's complicated the response to the COVID. So, we really need stronger reformed multilateral institutions to be able to coordinate what is becoming more and more a multipolar world. And I would remind you that Europe, before the First World War, was multipolar, but because there was no multilateral governance institutions at European level, the result was the First World War. So multipolarity, that many considered to be a factor of equilibrium and it is a factor of equilibrium, it's a positive development, but multipolarity doesn't guarantee peace and doesn't guarantee effective cooperation. Multipolarity requires even stronger-

Ian Bremmer:

Institutions.

António Guterres:

... multilateral institutions.

Ian Bremmer:

Absolutely. Now, most of the changes that you're talking about are really being driven by different members of the global south. Is that fair to say?

António Guterres:

I think that there has been a growing conscience in the global south that something fundamentally wrong is in the present situation of the world economy and the world's power systems, and that it is essential to change it. And the global south is appearing with a stronger voice, not always a united voice, but with a stronger voice. And I believe that countries in the developed world are understanding that they need to listen to that voice. This is very clear when I speak with our European friends. It is still more complex in the United States, because we are close to elections and we know in election year it is always very difficult to make changes. But I think more and more developed countries are understanding that the present situation leads nowhere. It's better to open the institutions. It's better to have more fairness and equity in the way the international systems work, economically and political, to the benefit of everybody.

Ian Bremmer:

Is China sort of a member of the global south or not really?

António Guterres:

China is on one hand still a developing country. And China has good relations with most of the countries of the global south, but China is also today one of the most developed countries in the world in several key areas and namely areas of high technology. If you look at artificial intelligence, if you look at space technology, and we could go on and on, china in many aspects is not only a developed country, but a living developed country. But on the other hand, China still has problems of not extreme poverty, but problems of poverty. They still have a meaningful number of young people unemployed. They still have big differences and big inequalities between the coast and the inland. So China still has a number of significant problems as a developing country, but it is clear that in today's world and in many key areas, China today occupies the first or the second place.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, the reason I asked you is because when you responded about how, whether or not the developed countries were constructive in responding to the global south, you said, "Well the Europeans increasingly recognize something needs to change. The Americans, it's more complicated. We've got elections coming up." You didn't mention China and China doesn't have elections of course. China also is an enormous creditor to the global south. I'm wondering how do you see China's role in responding to what is clearly this dramatic change in demand for new global architecture?

António Guterres:

It's essential that China is part of the solution of debt relief for the developing countries. And in my conversations with the Chinese, they are admitting that many of the loans that they made need to be extended in time and need to have better conditions. The Chinese are still reluctant to the so-called haircuts, but are open at least in our discussions and in what I've seen in some international negotiations are open to increase their time. Because you cannot fund an infrastructure like railway with the loans at 10 or 15 years. You need loans at 30 or 40 years. So, I think China is understanding that they need to be part of the debt solution and that there must be a cooperation between China and other creditors for things to effectively work. And until now, this has been one of the difficult things to put together. Some mistrusts, misinformation, lack of capacity to bring these things together.

On the other hand, it is for me obvious that if we want to have a global market, there must be a serious negotiation between western countries and China on trade and technology. And China needs to be more transparent into a number of things and more open to a number of aspects of integration of the global economy. On the other hand, I believe western countries need to understand the reality of China, as China is today. So it's no longer a small economy. It's a large economy, growing even if we have now some problems in the Chinese economic and financial situation with the real estate bubble. But it is impossible to ignore that China is a central aspect of the global economy today. And so a serious negotiation between the west and China is absolutely central to have one global market, to have one global financial system and to have, in other aspects, the unity that is essential if we want to have a rules based order in which everybody abides by.

Ian Bremmer:

So the last big question I wanted to end with was technology. You already talked about AI and the disruptive implications of AI as one of the big existential crisis for the world today, climate being the other one. I just saw Ursula von der Leyen, of the European Union, at her State of the EU and she called for a UN-led intergovernmental panel on artificial intelligence. Nice to see the head of the EU calling for the United Nations to take a strong leadership role here. Do you think that's feasible and how can the United Nations help to respond to this very, very fast moving challenge?

António Guterres:

Well, first of all the decision will be a decision of member states. Let's not forget it, but we will put in place immediately after the General Assembly, a high level advisory body on artificial intelligence to work with me to come with concrete proposals in this regard. And for me it is clear that we must have some kind of global entity. There are different models that have been put on the table. One is the International Agency of Atomic Energy. The other is the IPCC, the-

Ian Bremmer:

On climate change?

António Guterres:

... scientific board of climate change. The others talk about like how as a model. We need to have some kind of global entity in which there is competence, technical competence, and in which there is some monitoring capacity and eventually some regulatory capacity. And at the same time to be a platform in which the different sectors come together, including of course-

Ian Bremmer:

The companies.

António Guterres:

... the companies, including the scientists, including the civil society, because governments alone will not be able to tame this complicated animal that is artificial intelligence. We need to have preparation of everybody.

Ian Bremmer:

Do the member states, are they prepared to accept an institution where the governments don't have all of the power. That's the reality, but are they prepared to accept that reality?

António Guterres:

We'll see. I believe that there needs to be an intergovernmental part on it, but also there needs to be a platform on the key stakeholders need to be present for us to be able, as I said, to move in an effective way, to guarantee artificial intelligence is a fundamental tool for our common development, and it's not a threat for the future of humankind.

Ian Bremmer:

So, I asked you a whole bunch of big questions. You're coming up to literally hundreds of bilaterals over the course of the next week. What's the one thing that we should watch out for that I didn't mention from the United Nations High-level Week next week?

António Guterres:

There will be of course a lot of discussions on Ukraine, but our most important objective in this week is in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals summit and the possibility not only to approve a declaration that is far-reaching, but to have a number of strong commitments by member states and by other entities in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals, in general, and climate in particular. We will have our Climate Ambition Summit. And unfortunately now we have not seen much ambition.

Ian Bremmer:

Much ambition.

António Guterres:

I hope that the Climate Ambition Summit will contribute to make some countries that have not been so ambitious until now and also private sector to come with concrete proposals that are game changers in relation to our needs to tame climate change.

Ian Bremmer:

Secretary-General, it's so nice to kick off the week with you and I wish you a great deal of luck as we go through it.

António Guterres:

Thank you very much. It's always an enormous pleasure to discuss with you.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Do you like what you heard? Of course you did. Well, why don't you check us out at gzeromedia.com and take a moment to sign up for our newsletter. It's called GZERO Daily.

Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our lead sponsor, Prologis. Prologis helps businesses across the globe scale their supply chains with an expansive portfolio of logistics real estate, and the only end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today. Learn more at prologis.com.