Viewpoint: G20 leaders grapple with global inequality in Trump's shadow

​A member of the cleaning crew walks past a G20 Summit sign outside the Museum of Modern Art, the venue of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2024.
A member of the cleaning crew walks past a G20 Summit sign outside the Museum of Modern Art, the venue of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2024.
REUTERS/Pilar Olivares

Amid geopolitical tensions fanned by wars in Europe and the Middle East and Donald Trump’s reelection in the US, world heads of state will gather in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 Leaders’ Summit from Nov. 18-19. They will discuss proposals to combat global inequality and climate change and try to agree on a common position toward the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza in a carefully worded closing statement. Following the summit, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host China’s Xi Jinping on a state visit in Brasilia, where the two will announce a series of partnerships in trade and investment.

We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson to learn more about this year’s G20 Summit.

What items would you highlight on the agenda?

Brazil, which holds the G20’s rotating presidency this year, tried to keep divisive geopolitical issues out of the subject matter meetings held in preparation for the summit, allowing for the approval of communiques with policy recommendations on a wide range of issues. I think those related to global inequality, a priority issue for the Brazilian presidency, are likely to get the most attention when the heads of state meet. There are two main proposals: the creation of a new tax on the super-wealthy and the new launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.

There is not much consensus yet about the tax – what the rate would be, how it would be levied – but the Brazilian presidency considers it a victory to have gotten the issue on the agenda and thinks the proposal can be fleshed out in the coming years. With the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, Brazil aims to export ideas such as the Bolsa Familia program of cash transfers that have been successful at reducing hunger in Brazil. Thirty-one countries have already signed on to the initiative and another 27 have asked to join.

What impact will Trump’s election have on the summit?

The impact will be greatest on the discussion of climate and sustainability policies, another one of Brazil’s priority areas. Brazil and other emerging market countries have been pressing for assistance in financing climate change mitigation efforts from the wealthy industrialized countries that bear more responsibility for the carbon emissions causing global warming. That already fraught conversation will become much more difficult with Trump, a noted climate skeptic, poised to assume the presidency of the world’s largest economy and second-largest carbon emitter next year. I understand that Lula has been updating his planned speech at the summit to reflect this reality. A silver lining for Brazil is that South Africa, another leading global south country, will assume the G20 presidency next year, so the work done this year on this issue will likely continue.

What do you expect G20 leaders to say about the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza?

Drafting the final communique, which will have to mention these issues, will obviously present some challenges. There are stark divisions among G20 members about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. So, the most likely outcome is some vague language about the desirability of peace, as in previous years.

Outside of the G20 agenda, what else do you expect from this gathering of world leaders?

Lula will meet with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines, though Biden’s lame-duck status limits the potential for important outcomes from their conversation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be at the summit, which creates the opportunity to advance the discussions on a trade pact between the EU and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, which is expected to be finalized in the coming months. But there will be much more focus on Xi Jinping’s follow-up state visit to Brasilia. Chinese officials are expected to announce a slew of investments in sectors of the Brazilian economy ranging from satellites to logistics and infrastructure. Xi will be arriving in Brazil after a stop in Peru to attend the APEC Leaders’ Summit and the inauguration of the Chancay port, which is majority-owned by a Chinese company. There are plans to link this Pacific Ocean-facing port to Brazil to open up a lower-cost trade route to China.

So, it sounds like Lula is expecting some good outcomes. Will that help him politically?

There was more optimism at the beginning of the year, when Lula and his team did not foresee a Trump victory and there was this idea that geopolitical conflicts could have eased by now. Still, Brazil sees hosting the G20 as good for its foreign policy agenda, offering the opportunity to dialogue with the world’s main economies. Brazil sees itself as a non-aligned country striving to maintain good relations with the US, China, and Europe.

Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.

More from GZERO Media

Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of defense, gestures as he leaves a Senate Committee on Armed Services confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Jan. 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary, appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. Dems grilled him on allegations of misconduct and his history of opposing women in the military, while Republicans applauded his performance. Is he likely to be confirmed?

President Donald Trump talks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a North Atlantic Treaty Organization Plenary Session at the NATO summit back in 2019.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Incoming US President Donald Trumpposted on Tuesday that he will create an “External Revenue Service” to oversee his planned trade tariffs, underlining his commitment to these policies – much to the chagrin of America’s neighbors.

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a beachfront cafe amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on January 14, 2025.
(Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto) via Reuters

After months of negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, Hamas on Tuesday accepted a draft ceasefire agreement that could bring an end to the fighting in Gaza – at least temporarily – if Israel’s cabinet approves it.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, DC, on Nov. 13, 2024.

ALLISON ROBBERT/Pool via REUTERS

In just under a week, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. These final days of Biden’s administration mark the very end of the calm before the storm.

- YouTube

A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon? What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk? What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

When his daughter was born, Johnny was able to use Walmart’s paid parental leave to spend six weeks bonding with her: “I’m a living example of the benefits Walmart provides.” Walmart’s comprehensive benefits — including paid parental leave, healthcare, tuition coverage, and more — help associates live better at work and at home. With a $1 billion investment in career-driven training and development, Walmart is creating pathways to higher-paying, higher-skilled jobs, so associates like Johnny can build better lives for themselves and their families. Learn why it pays to work at Walmart.

As we look ahead to the next four years, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the role of American AI. The path forward demands collaboration across all sectors, and Microsoft is ready to help chart this course. At Microsoft, we envision a three-pronged approach. First, the US must advance AI technology and infrastructure to maintain its global leadership. Second, it’s critical to expand skilling initiatives to equip the workforce for an AI-powered future. Finally, exporting American AI innovation to allied nations will not only strengthen international partnerships but also bolster domestic economic growth. Realizing this vision requires a unified effort from government, industry, and educational institutions, and Microsoft is committed to playing a key role in this journey. You can learn more here.