Watching and Ignoring

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Shinzo Abe — With scandals back home and an approval rating of 26.7 percent, Japan’s Prime Minister Abe needed a boost from his Mar-a-Lago meeting with President Trump. He returns to Tokyo with no waiver on US steel tariffs, no US steps back toward the Transpacific Partnership, and no guarantees Trump will remember Japan’s interests if/when he sits down with Kim Jong-un. Can Abe keep his job through a long hot summer and survive his party’s leadership election in September?

Turkey’s elections — Why call for elections on June 24 when you could wait until November 2019? Because you want to catch the opposition napping, and because you expect your leadership will look much better in two monthsthan it will next year. Turkey’s economy is headed in the wrong direction. Its adventure in Syria has reached the limits of the military’s capabilities. And there’s reason for Recep Tayyip Erdogan to fear that familiarity with his leadership will only further polarize his country. We’ll watch to see how hard he must work to win.

The Middle East’s Culture Wars — Last month, an Iranian woman was sentenced to two years in prison for becoming the latest to remove her headscarf in public. This week, the head of the department of Islamic guidance in the Iranian city of Mashhad was arrested after video appeared that showed men and women dancing together at a local shopping center. Meanwhile, Saudi filmgoers (!) ate popcorn and enjoyed screenings of the popular film Black Panther as Saudi cinemas reopened for the first time since 1979. That’s the year Saudi society became much more conservative in response to the Islamic revolution in rival Iran.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Macron’s understanding of Trump — Following comments from French President Macron that he had convinced President Trump to keep US troops in Syria, the White House quickly reiterated its goal to withdraw troops… because Trump loves it when other people take credit for his decisions. The two men will have a chance to discuss their differences during a very interesting meeting next week.

The WhatsApp call to prayer — In response to complaints about noise pollution, authorities in Ghana are calling on Muslims to broadcast the call to prayer via WhatsApp instead of loudspeakers. I’m not Muslim, a technophobe, or a fan of cacophonous racket. But it’s a call to prayer. Maybe other sources of sound could move to quiet mode.

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Donald Trump is seen here at a Jets football game next to his campaign manager Susie Wiles, on Oct. 20, 2024. The president-elect has just named Wiles his White House chief of staff.
Evan Vucci/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

At last count — yep, they’re still counting ballots from last week’s US election — Republicans looked set for a clean sweep: taking not only the White House and Senate but possibly the House too. Attention now turns to the president-elect’s naming of names for the first cabinet of “Trump 2.0.”

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 2, 2024.
West Asia News Agency via Reuters

The Gulf Arab emirate announced this weekend it would stop mediating efforts to broker a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Hamas and Israel until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”

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Climate activists project a message onto the Embassy of Azerbaijan ahead of COP29 climate talks, in London, on Nov. 7, 2024.
REUTERS/Chris J. Ratcliffe

Donald Trump’s election victory will loom large in the minds of delegates at this year’s UN climate conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, from Nov. 11-22. We asked Eurasia Group expert Herbert Crowther how this will affect COP29 and UN efforts to mitigate climate change more broadly.

Digital Saksham — saksham translates to “able” in Hindi — is a collaboration between the Confederation of Indian Industry and Mastercard Strive, a global philanthropic initiative to support small businesses. It’s part of a broader effort by the Indian government to unlock the full potential of micro and small enterprises — and part of Mastercard’s efforts to bring 50 million small businesses into the digital economy by 2025, a goal it recently met. Accessing digital tools can help small businesses scale up, reach new customers, and hire more employees. Read more about these efforts to equip small business owners — especially women — with the tools they need to build their businesses and become financially resilient.

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Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer examines the impact of Donald Trump’s return to office, exploring how his populist victory and the GOP’s control could reshape US governance amid historian Nicole Hemmer’s warning of “accelerating democratic erosion” and journalist Molly Ball's concerns over eroding checks on executive power.

Donald Trump gestures after taking the oath of office during his first inauguration in Washington, DC, in January 2017.

Olivier Douliery/ABACAPRESS.COM via Reuters

The US Justice Department on Friday charged three men with plotting to assassinate Donald Trump on the orders of the Iranian government.