Watching and Ignoring

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Locked-up Lula Alex wrote a piece for your Tuesday edition on the emergence of Joaquim Barbosa as a presidential contender in Brazil. Then we got more big news from the country this week. Late Wednesday night, by a vote of 6–5, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Tribunal ruled that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, popularly known as Lula, must sit in prison while he appeals a 12-year sentence for a corruption conviction. Lula still leads in opinion polls ahead of October’s presidential election — though the number of voters who say they’re dead-set against him would make it hard for him to win. Lula’s incarceration creates space on the left for other candidates, like Barbosa. But, as Alex points out, it could also delegitimize the election for those who agree with Lula that the charges against him are politically motivated.

Macron vs the unions Every French president who tries to change that country’s labor laws knows that sooner or later the showdown with unions will come. It’s Emmanuel Macron’s turn, and a wave of strikes, led by staff at state railway SNCF, is now under way. Strikes are scheduled to disrupt transport on 36 separate days over the next three months. Rail workers want to protect their relatively generous benefits, while the government says the state can’t afford them — and that EU rules require that state railways open to competition. On Wednesday, students, angry over more selective university entry requirements, added their challenge to President Emmanuel Macron. This is a crucial test for a leader with grand ambitions — for France and for Europe.

The Weiner-Dog Museum — Did you know that Albert Einstein, Pablo Picasso, and Star Trek star Leonard Nimoy loved dachshunds? Did you know that Germans bred dachshunds in the Middle Ages to flush predatory badgers from underground tunnels? Did you know the mascot of the 1972 Munich Olympics was a dachshund called Waldi? If you didn’t know these things, would like to learn more, and are passing through Bavaria, Signal recommends the newly opened Dackelmuseum in Passau, Germany.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

US withdrawal from Syria — President Trump made news last week by telling a cheering crowd in Ohio that “We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now.” But there’s been little clarity since then on what “very soon” means. The Pentagon is not ready for withdrawal. Defense officials made clear this week that ISIS is not finished. Turkey’s intervention in Syria has delayed the “fight going against the remnants of ISIS,” said Defense Secretary James Mattis ten days ago. The Pentagon also appears interested in countering Russian influence in shaping Syria’s future and in dissuading Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, and Iran that it’s safe to attack US Kurdish allies. Until the Commander in Chief and Pentagon sort these questions out, the words “very soon” don’t mean much.

Bahrain’s new oil find — This week, the Kingdom of Bahrain — with a population smaller than Barcelona or Phoenix, Arizona — announced discovery of an offshore shale oil field large enough to push the tiny country’s oil reserves from 66th to 8th in the world. This may be good news for the already wealthy and well-connected in Bahrain, but we’re ignoring this story because its government, in lockstep with Saudi Arabia, won’t use new wealth to pursue a more independent foreign policy.

Iranians who fear nipples — The team logo for Italian football club AS Roma features the traditional Roman image of two babies, city founders Romulus and Remus, being suckled by the Capitoline Wolf. During its coverage of UEFA Champions League football, broadcasters in Iran altered the image by blurring out the wolf’s teats. We’re speechless.

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Jennifer Sciubba to explore a looming global crisis: population collapse. With fertility rates below replacement levels in two-thirds of the world, what does this mean for the future of work, healthcare, and retirement systems? In the US, Vice President-Elect JD Vance and Elon Musk are already sounding the alarm, the latter saying it's “a much bigger risk” to civilization than global warming. Can governments do anything to stop it?

Senegal's Presidential Bassirou Diomaye Faye casts his ballot during the early legislative election, at a polling station in Ndiaganiao, Mbour, Senegal on Nov. 17, 2024.

Abdou Karim Ndoye/Senegal's Presidency/Handout via Reuters

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye called the snap vote eight months after taking office, seeking a majority mandate for economic reforms as the country grapples with high inflation and widespread unemployment.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres ahead of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Ricardo Stuckert/Brazilian Presidency/Handout via Reuters

As G20 leaders meet in Rio de Janeiro on Monday, it’s not just the city’s famed statue of Christ the Redeemer casting a shadow: it’s US President-elect Donald Trump.

President Joe Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a trilateral meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024.

REUTERS/Leah Millis

In a joint press conference on Friday at the APEC summit in Lima, Peru, US President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, and Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned of the latest “dangerous and destabilizing” cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

Former President Donald Trump attends court during closing arguments in his civil business fraud trial at the New York Supreme Court on Jan. 11, 2024.
John Nacion/NurPhoto via Reuters

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election puts the country in an unprecedented position. He’s the first convicted felon to win the presidency and was elected to the nation’s highest office while facing multiple criminal cases at the federal and state level. What will happen to these criminal proceedings?

- YouTube

The world is quietly being reshaped by a demographic time bomb: Birthrates are plummeting, and the global population is rapidly aging. By 2050, one in six people will be over 65. While the overall population is still increasing—driven by growth in developing countries like Nigeria and Pakistan—experts predict it will peak in about 60 years. The shift to depopulation will have huge implications for the future of work, healthcare, and retirement. So what can we do about it? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the different strategies governments are using to try to get people to have more kids, particularly in East Asia, where the population crisis is severe.

The Puerto Princesa Forest Restoration Initiative is a project to plant more than 400,000 seedlings to restore Palawan forests destroyed by Super Typhoon Odette in the Philippines. It’s part of a larger global effort by the Priceless Planet Coalition, launched by Mastercard with Conservation International and the World Resources Institute, to fund the restoration of 100 million trees around the world. These projects extend beyond carbon sequestration — they’re aimed at creating economic opportunities for women in the region, enabling them to better provide for their families. Read more about how many local women and community members are leading the charge on nursery construction, maintenance, and seedling production.

- YouTube

Listen: The world is on the brink of one of the most fundamental demographic shifts in modern human history: populations are getting older, and birth rates are plummeting. By 2050, one in six people on Earth will be over 65, which will have a huge impact on the future of work, healthcare, and social security. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Jennifer Sciubba, President & CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, to discuss declining fertility, the aging crisis, and why government efforts all over the world to get people to have more babies don’t seem to be working.