What are the chances of a “reformist” leading Iran?

Iranians head to the polls on Friday to vote in a surprisingly competitive election that could see a reformist and more West-friendly candidate assume the presidency. The election season began in June when the Guardian Council approved six candidates in the wake of President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, but now only four remain, with three front-runners: conservative hardliners Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.

The regime now wants Qalibaf or Jalili to bow out so as not to split the conservative vote, which would benefit Pezeshkian, who appears to be leading. But neither man is willing to step down. The polls favor Jalili, while Qalibaf, a former military officer, has the backing of the influential IRGC, highlighting the deepening factionalism within the conservative regime.

The divided conservative vote could very well result in Friday’s election failing to produce a clear winner, which would lead to a runoff, likely between Pezeshkian and a conservative.

What could most impact the vote? High voter turnout is key to Pezeshkian prevailing, but amid rising voter apathy, turnout is expected to be about 50%. In past elections, conservative voters have gone to the polls in mass numbers to rally behind their candidate, whereas reformist and disillusioned Iranians, Pezeshkian’s voter base, usually stay home in protest.

What would a Pezeshkian-led Iran look like? Likely not very different. Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew says that even if Pezeshkian wins, “The parliament, judiciary, military, and other parts of the regime will still be dominated by hard-liners — in that sense, Friday's election or next week’s runoff won’t change much.”