What does Trump’s mass deportation mean for Canada — and immigration policy?

Donald Trump’s radical plan to crack down on undocumented immigration has sparked widespread concerns across the US. Beyond the human rights implications, there are serious questions regarding the potential economic toll of Trump’s immigration proposals. Trump has promised mass deportations and this week confirmed plans to involve the military. He has vowed to begin deportations on his first day in office.

State and municipal leaders are already taking steps to protect immigrants ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Earlier this week, Los Angeles passed a sanctuary city ordinance codifying the rights of migrants. Governors in California, Massachusetts, and Illinois are considering plans of their own to protect migrants at the state level, setting up a showdown between the federal government and state and local governments.

Rights groups have raised the alarm about the potential for violations and abuse if Trump’s plan moves forward, as economists warn that the president-elect’s immigration plan would lead to higher prices for food and other goods, alongside labor shortages. In 2022, undocumented workers made up nearly 14% of the construction industry, 13% of the agriculture industry, and 7% of the hospitality industry. On top of all that, it’s estimated that Trump’s plan could also take a decade and cost nearly a trillion dollars.

Trump’s push to deport millions comes amid shifting public sentiment toward immigration. Gallup’s tracking poll has seen a sharp increase in recent years in the share of Americans who want to see lower immigration levels — from 28% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. A similar trend is emerging to the north.

Canada watches closely — and faces its own migration problem

Canada is keeping a particularly close eye on what happens next in the US, especially with regard to Trump’s immigration plan. The two countries share the world’s longest undefended border and a trade relationship worth a trillion dollars a year.

Experts have warned that Trump’s push for mass deportations could lead undocumented immigrants in the US to flee to Canada and trigger a migrant crisis, destabilizing the country at a time when it’s already turning against newcomers domestically.

After decades of a strong pro-immigration consensus in the country, Canadians have recently begun to oppose higher levels of immigration. A fall poll found that roughly three-quarters of Canadians want to reduce immigration until housing gets cheaper. The shift in support has been building for some time as politicians point to a growing rate of immigrants — which federal and provincial governments control — as a source of pressure on housing affordability, healthcare resources, and jobs.

In recent months, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has introduced changes to immigration policy aimed at curbing numbers. In the fall, the government moved to limit the number of international students the country would admit. It also reformed the country’s temporary foreign worker program, scaling it back. More recently, the Liberals introduced a plan to cut immigration levels by roughly 20% next year and more in the following two years — after raising those targets as recently as last year. Economists warned the moves could slow the economy.

Managing a mercurial Trump

Trump’s mass deportation plan puts Canada in a precarious position. The Trudeau government will have to manage the logistics of regular and irregular crossings along with a potential spike in asylum claims. Meanwhile, Ottawa will face the more general challenge of maintaining strong relations with Washington under a president who often blindsided Canada on issues like trade during his first term in office.

Some of Trump’s appointees have already ripped into Canada over border security, painting the country as a laggard and a threat — particularly incoming border czar Tom Homan, who cites concerns about terrorists crossing between the countries. Homan says there is an “extreme national security vulnerability” along the US-Canada border and expects “tough conversations.”

For its part, the Canadian government says it’s prepared to “do the work” in response to US border concerns, particularly as irregular crossings at the northern border are up. But that work could become complicated if Trump proceeds with his plan for mass deportations — especially if Canadian police and border officials lack the resources to manage what may come.

An uncertain path ahead

The word “unprecedented” gets thrown around a lot lately, but what follows next on immigration, border policy, and the relationship between Canada and the US could indeed be unprecedented. A mass deportation program, combined with softening support for immigration on both sides of the border, politicians ready to scapegoat migrants, and the economic consequences of bringing in fewer newcomers — at a time when people are just beginning to see the early stages of relief from a years-long housing affordability crisis — will be, to say the least, a mess.

It’s an extraordinary, and dangerous, moment of realignment.

Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, notes that the US and Canada have “traditionally been highly welcoming of new immigrants, at least compared to other countries.” However, he points out, there’s been a dual shift lately driven by two different sources.

He argues that Canada doesn’t necessarily have to harmonize its immigration policy with the US under Trump, but it will face pressure to tighten border security and screening processes for newcomers.

Nonetheless, Canada doesn’t have to follow Washington’s lead, he says, since the two face different challenges.

“The immigration pressures in each country are very different. In Canada, the primary focus is on bringing down numbers of international students and temporary foreign workers, in large part due to cost-of-living pressures, whereas in the US, the emphasis is on undocumented immigrants who entered the country illegally, which is not a significant problem north of the border.”

But the question remains: What will Canada do if and when Trump proceeds with his mass deportation plan and the northern border becomes a focal point for migrants, particularly as the country worries about Trump on trade and defense? And as the Liberal government, down 20 points in the polls, faces an election due by October 2025?

The Trudeau Cabinet says it’s focused on the matter and has a plan for the border, but details have been scant so far, leaving Canadians — and migrants — left to wonder what comes next.