What kind of leverage does Biden really have with Bibi?

What kind of leverage does Biden really have with Bibi?
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) shakes hands with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden during their meeting at Netanyahu's residence in Jerusalem March 9, 2010.
REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

The bloody conflict between Israel and Hamas is now in its second week. Hamas militants are firing rockets at major population centers in Israel, while the Israeli military continues to pound the densely-populated Gaza Strip with artillery and missiles. More than 200 Palestinians are dead and at least 10 Israelis have been killed.

Given the lopsided death toll and the humanitarian impact of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, critics of Israel's campaign have called on the US, Israel's closest ally, to do more to stop the violence.

Until Monday evening, the Biden administration had pointedly avoided calling publicly for a ceasefire, allowing more time for Israel to respond to the ongoing Hamas rocket attacks, but also deepening the humanitarian impact on the people of Gaza.

Why didn't the US intervene before the death toll mounted? And what kind of leverage does Washington, in practice, have over the situation?

A few things to consider.

Powerful as the US is, Biden probably can't just pick up the phone and order the Israelis to stop targeting Gaza. If he did, Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu would almost certainly ignore him. Yes, the rightwing Netanyahu is ultra-hawkish when it comes to the Palestinians, but it's hard to imagine any Israeli prime minister, even from the left, calling off a strong military response in Gaza while rockets are raining down on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Even Merav Michaeli, leader of the leftwing Labor party, hasn't opposed the military campaign itself.

In fact, so far no major Jewish Israeli political leaders, from left or right, have done so. While Jewish Israelis may differ sharply on other aspects of the conflict such as settlements policy or the best path to a two-state solution, on this there is mostly broad consensus. A recent poll showed that 72 percent of Israelis oppose a ceasefire at the moment. That's a wall of support that even a phone call from the US president would be unlikely to crack.

What about holding back arms sales or military aid? The US supplies $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel annually, as part of a decade-long agreement reached in 2016 under the Obama administration. Washington is also Israel's main arms dealer, and in principle, these are powerful tools that Biden could use to influence Israeli behavior. But there are several major caveats.

First, President Biden himself is historically reluctant to use that lever of power: "I have been on record from very early on opposed to the [illegal Israeli] settlements [in the West Bank]," he told reporters in 2019, "but the idea that we would draw military assistance from Israel on the condition that they change a specific policy I find to be absolutely outrageous."

Second, even if — like his one-time presidential rival Bernie Sanders — Biden did want to put that aid in play, oversight of these appropriations lies chiefly with the US Congress rather than with the White House. And in Congress, despite rising concerns from some Democrats about the human rights and humanitarian impact of Israel's Gaza campaign, there's still a bipartisan consensus against using military aid as a tool of influence over Israel.

Last month, more than three-quarters of House representatives signed a letter saying as much. And on Tuesday, the Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), agreed to drop a recent call to review a $735 million shipment of precision guided bombs to Israel. The sale had been approved by the White House before the current violence began.

What are Washington's other points of leverage? The US holds a UN Security Council veto which it has often used to shield Israel from condemnation by the international community. This is a powerful instrument and one that matters for Israel, which is keen to avoid broader international isolation. Over the past week, the US has in fact blocked three UNSC resolutions calling for ceasefires, because the texts did not mention the Hamas rocket attacks as part of the problem.

So… will there be a ceasefire? Observers expect some movement by the end of this week now that the US has explicitly supported one. Both Hamas and Israel are looking to get their last licks in while Egypt leads the effort to broker a halt to the fighting.

But at this point, what pauses the violence may have less to do with US pressure and more to do with the calculations of Israel and Hamas themselves.

UPDATE: Includes polling numbers on Israeli support/opposition to cease-fire in 7th paragraph. 05/20/21

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

Fifty years after the fall of Saigon (or its liberation, depending on whom you ask), Vietnam has transformed from a war-torn battleground to one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies—and now finds itself caught between two superpowers. Ian Bremmer breaks down how Vietnam went from devastation in the wake of the Vietnam War to becoming a regional economic powerhouse.

Eurasia Group and GZERO Media are seeking a highly creative, detail-oriented Graphic and Animation Designer who lives and breathes news, international affairs, and policy. The ideal candidate has demonstrated experience using visual storytelling—including data visualizations and short-form animations—to make complex geopolitical topics accessible, social-friendly, and engaging across platforms. You will join a dynamic team of researchers, editors, video producers, and writers to elevate our storytelling and thought leadership through innovative multimedia content.

The body of Pope Francis in the coffin exposed in St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City on April 24, 2025. The funeral will be celebrated on Saturday in St. Peter's Square.
Pasquale Gargano/KONTROLAB/ipa-agency.net/IPA/Sipa USA

While the Catholic world prepares for the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday – the service begins at 10 a.m. local time, 4 a.m. ET – certain high-profile attendees may also have other things on their mind. Several world leaders will be on hand to pay their respects to the pontiff, but they could also find themselves involved in bilateral talks.

A Ukrainian rescue worker sits atop the rubble of a destroyed residential building during rescue operations, following a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building block in Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025.
Photo by Justin Yau/ Sipa USA
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce.

Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
Photo by David Talukdar/NurPhoto

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government.

- YouTube

“When things are going fine, nobody really tests the skills and talents of their financial advisor, but this is a moment where really good advice can be extraordinarily powerful,” says Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute's CEO and President. In conversation with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis, Franklin describes the current financial climate as “maximum uncertainty,” rating it a 10 out of 10 on the risk scale.

President Donald Trump at a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he would deliver a “fair deal” with China and that he’d be “very nice” to the country after meeting with major retailers. But Beijing denies that there are any ongoing talks and has told the US it must cancel its unilateral tariffs before China will broker any negotiations.