What We're Watching: Brazilian runoff, Burkina Faso coup 2.0, Ukraine's response to Russian annexations

A supporter of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts as people gather after polling stations were closed in the presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
A supporter of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts as people gather after polling stations were closed in the presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli

Lula’s bittersweet first-round win

Left-wing former President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva won the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday but fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid an Oct. 30 runoff that might now be tighter than expected. With almost 97% of the ballots counted, Lula got 47.9% of the vote, 4.2 percentage points more than his nemesis: the far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula is still favored to also win in the second round, the result is good news for Bolsonaro because he outperformed the polls, which had him trailing Lula by a wide margin and led many to believe his rival could win it all in the first round. Some experts think that Bolsonaro is consistently underestimated because many Brazilians are hesitant to admit they vote for him — a theory pollsters deny. Lula's narrower-than-expected victory might give Bolsonaro even more fodder to claim that the surveys are rigged against him. Brazil's president has spent months firing up his base with baseless doubts about the integrity of the election process, and no one would be surprised if he tries to pull a 6 de Janeiro if he loses the runoff.

Coups and counter-coups in Burkina Faso

Coups are always messy affairs, but the West African nation of Burkina Faso is taking it to a whole new level. Late on Friday, Col. Ibrahim Traoré announced the removal of Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba — who ousted democratically elected President Roch Kaboré in January — for failing to defeat an Islamist insurgency. The next day, Traoré claimed Damiba was planning a counter-coup with help from former colonial power France. Pas moyen, says Paris, as protesters attacked French interests in the capital, Ouagadougou, before Damiba agreed to step down on Sunday. Meanwhile, Traoré's junta is reaching out to "new partners" to fight the jihadists — possibly code for Russian mercenaries employed by the notorious Wagner Group, already active in neighboring Mali. The Sahel remains a hotbed for Islamist insurgents despite almost a decade of French military presence, which has hurt France's reputation in many of these countries. A Russian-propagated conspiracy theory that the insecurity is a ruse by Paris to protect its interests is also fueling anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, where coups are making a comeback.

Ukraine won’t give up

Ukraine is claiming a strategic victory in one of its four regions recently annexed by Russia. Lyman, a logistical and railway base in the eastern Donetsk province, has been cleared of Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin blasted Vladimir Putin’s recent nuclear threats, calling them “irresponsible” and “nuclear saber-rattling.” As for the Russian president and his recent land grab of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk, interesting times are ahead: after holding a ceremony to sign accession treaties, Moscow is expected to process the documents through its parliament, after which Russia will consider the annexations complete. Next up? Russian laws and prosecutors would be imposed on the regions; militias fighting for Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk would be incorporated formally into the Russian military; the Russian ruble would be made the only legal currency; and after an oath of loyalty, residents would officially become Russian citizens. Meanwhile, the leaders of nine NATO countries issued a joint statement on Sunday condemning Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories and pushing NATO to increase military assistance to Kyiv.

This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.

More from GZERO Media

People attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 29, 2025.
REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of Istanbul this weekend to protest the detainment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a popular contender for the next presidential election.

Democratic-backed Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford and Republican-backed Waukesha County Circuit Judge Brad Schimel square off in their only debate until their April 1 election.
Brian Cahn/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters

Elections are back in the United States — and so is the money. Six months after the 2024 US presidential vote, Wisconsinites will head to the polls Tuesday to decide whether liberal candidate Susan Crawford or her opponent, conservative Brad Schimel,will tip the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court. The liberals currently have a 4-3 advantage.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on March 30, 2025.
POOL via ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters

In his first trip to Asia this weekend, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called for greater military cooperation between Tokyo and Washington.

People walk by as a painter repaints an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, on Saturday, March 29, 2025.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening to bomb the country and impose secondary tariffs if Tehran fails to reach a new agreement on its nuclear program. In a telephone interview with NBC News, Trump stated, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

President Donald Trump waves as he walks before departing for Florida from the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on March 28, 2025.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Is the bloom off the bromance between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin? On Sunday, Trump took Putin to task over Russia’s foot-dragging on a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to tariff Russian oil and impose more sanctions on the country.

Rescuers work at the site of a building that collapsed after the strong earthquake in Mandalay, Myanmar, on Sunday, March 30, 2025.
REUTERS/Stringer

The death toll continues to rise in Myanmar after a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck near the central city of Mandalay on March 28. Approximately 1,700 people are dead and over 3,400 injured, with the US Geological Service estimating that casualties could top 10,000. Relief operations are further complicated by Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, though a two-week ceasefire was declared on Sunday.

Listen: Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, made his fortune-breaking industries—space, cars, social media—and is now trying to break the government… in the name of fixing it. But what happens when Silicon Valley’s ‘move fast and break things’ ethos collides with the machinery of federal bureaucracy? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with WIRED Global Editorial Director Katie Drummond to unpack the implications of Musk’s deepening role in the Trump administration and what’s really behind his push into politics.

France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference following a summit for the "coalition of the willing" at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27, 2025.

LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS

At the third summit of the so-called “coalition of the willing” for Ukraine on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a multinational “reassurance force” to deter Russian aggression once a ceasefire is in place – and to engage if attacked.