What We're Watching: Ukraine won't negotiate, AMLO busted spying, North Korean missile diplomacy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during an interview with Reuters in Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during an interview with Reuters in Kyiv.
REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Ukraine on offense

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree on Tuesday asserting that all the lands that Russia’s Vladimir Putin claimed to annex last week — and Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014 — remain part of Ukraine. Zelensky and his generals appear to believe that Ukraine is winning the war with Russia, and they have battlefield advances to back up their case. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military think tank, has reported that Ukraine has made “substantial gains” on both the eastern and southern fronts over the past few days and that the units they’re defeating are “some of Russia’s most elite forces.” No wonder Zelensky and many others would swat away suggestions from billionaire eccentric Elon Musk that Ukraine might trade land for peace. Russia has acknowledged recent losses, and blame continues to land on the country’s military brass. It’s not clear how far Ukraine can extend its current gains, but the recapture of Crimea, in particular, will be even more difficult than the more immediate tasks ahead for Ukrainian forces. But for now, Ukraine has pushed the Russian military, and the Kremlin, onto its heels.

Mexico’s AMLO caught riding a winged horse

A new report says the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, has been snooping on journalists using the fearsome Pegasus spyware. Researchers at the Canada-based watchdog Citizen Lab and the Mexican digital privacy advocacy group R3D say the program was installed on the phones of at least three Mexican human rights investigators between 2019 and 2021. The revelation is particularly damning for AMLO, who promised after taking office in 2018 that he’d discontinue the use of Pegasus following revelations that his predecessor had used it against journalists. As recently as last year, AMLO said his government had cut all ties with NSO, the Israel-based company that makes Pegasus, which is typically sold only to governments or law enforcement agencies. According to Human Rights Watch, Mexico remains one of the most dangerous places on earth for journalists and human rights defenders.

North Korea wants attention

Kim Jong Un doesn't like to be ignored. To get attention — particularly from the US and South Korea — his usual shtick is to test ballistic missiles, which North Korea's supreme leader has been doing consistently since the beginning of the year. But he hasn’t gotten much of a rise out of Washington or Seoul – just the usual strongly worded statements. So on Tuesday morning, Kim decided to look elsewhere, firing off a rocket that arced directly over Japan before plunging into the Pacific Ocean. By launching their first missile test over Japan in five years, the North Koreans may hope that rattling a US ally will get Washington to come back to the negotiating table, where Pyongyang wants the Americans to lift economic sanctions without having to surrender its nuclear weapons program first. But North Korea is hardly a priority these days for US President Joe Biden, who has enough on his plate with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China bullying Taiwan, inflation soaring, and the midterms around the corner. And what about Japan? Expect the shock of the missile overflight to give fresh impetus for Tokyo to boost defense spending.

This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.

More from GZERO Media

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tours the galvanizing line at ArcelorMittal Dofasco in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada February 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

On Tuesday, the US will impose 25% tariffs on its two closest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, driving a stake into one of the world’s largest trading relationships.

U.S. President Donald Trump makes an announcement from White House March 3, 2025.
REUTERS/Leah Millis

Despite European leaders declaring that they will lead a “coalition of the willing” to reach an end to the Ukraine war, the Trump administration seems focused on striking a deal with Russia – regardless of whether it actually ends the conflict, or whether the EU and Ukraine agree to it.

- YouTube

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: For the first time, Europe is leading the charge on a Ukraine ceasefire, with the US stepping back after the Trump-Zelensky fallout. Can they succeed? Ian Bremmer explains in Quick Take.

Playing cards depicting President Donald Trump on display in West Palm Beach, Florida, late last year.
REUTERS/Marco Bello

European leaders are forced to confront the reality of President Donald Trump’s “transactional” and competitive negotiation style, which prioritizes US interests above traditional alliances.

Iran's outgoing VP Mohammad Javad Zarif speaks during a news conference in Tehran back in 2019.

Nazanin Tabatabaee/WANA via Reuters

The administration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suffered a second blow in as many days with the resignation Monday of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs. His departure comes after the impeachment on Sunday of another Pezeshkian ally, Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati, over the decline of the Iranian rial, and is a sign that conservative forces are gaining ground within the current administration.