What We’re Watching: Biden-Xi call, Khan’s momentum

What We’re Watching: Biden-Xi call, Khan’s momentum
Jess Frampton

Biden and Xi to talk ... Taiwan

US President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping are scheduled to speak via video call on Thursday for the fifth time. And the timing is, to put it mildly, not good. The two will likely talk about whether Biden will lift some of Trump's tariffs against China, or if Xi will dust off his passport to attend the November G20 summit in Indonesia, and the war in Ukraine. But the elephant in the room is, once again, Taiwan. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's still-unconfirmed visit to the self-governing island has caused shockwaves in Beijing, which threatens “consequences” for America if Pelosi sets foot in Taipei. The US military — which according to the president opposes the trip — fears China could even try to shoot down her plane. Biden is expected to tell Xi that he doesn't support Pelosi's plans, but also can't force her to cancel, which will do little to assuage the Chinese leader. Pelosi, second in line for the presidency, would be the first US speaker to visit Taiwan since 1997, a year after the last big standoff over Taiwan ended with China backing down after the US flexed its military muscle.

Ousted PM wins in Pakistani court

Pakistan's Supreme Court overturned on Wednesday a recent vote by the Punjab assembly to pick a chief minister from the ruling party over a candidate backed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The ruling is a big win for Khan — removed in a no-confidence vote in April — because Punjab is Pakistan's most populous province, as well as a bellwether for national politics right when the ousted former PM is plotting his comeback after leading months-long nationwide protests calling for a snap election. Also, the verdict might indicate that part of the powerful army — which directly or indirectly always calls the shots in Pakistani politics — might have buyer's remorse with current PM Shehbaz Sharif, whom the generals allowed to take over without intervening. Pakistan can’t catch a break: the last thing it needs now is more political turmoil when it's teetering on the brink of default while also suffering an energy crunch and sky-high inflation.

More from GZERO Media

Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.

President-elect Donald Trump appears remotely for a sentencing hearing in front of New York State Judge Juan Merchan in his hush money case at New York Criminal Court in New York City, on Jan. 10, 2025.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool

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In a way, Donald Trump’s return means Putin has finally won. Not because of the silly notion that Trump is a “Russian agent” – but because it closes the door finally and fully on the era of post-Cold War triumphalist globalism that Putin encountered when he first came to power.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria

Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term.

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Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you. The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive, writes GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon.

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Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.

During the Munich Security Conference 2025, the BMW Foundation will again host the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt Pavilion. From February 13th to 15th, we will organize panels, keynotes, and discussions focusing on achieving energy security and economic prosperity through innovation, policy, and global cooperation. The BMW Foundation emphasizes the importance of science-based approaches and believes that the energy transition can serve as a catalyst for economic opportunity, sustainability, and democratic resilience. Our aim is to facilitate solution-oriented dialogues between business, policy, science, and civil society to enhance Europe’s competitiveness in the energy and technology sectors, build a strong economy, and support a future-proof society. Read more about the BMW Foundation and our Pavilion at the Munich Security Conference here.