What We’re Watching: Irish PM rotation begins, Karachi stock exchange attacked, Poles go to runoff

Ireland has a new Taoiseach: Mícheál Martin was elected on Saturday by parliament as Ireland's new "taoiseach" (prime minister). Martin, leader of the center-right Fianna Fáil, will head a coalition government with the center-left Fine Gael and the Green Party. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — which have taken turns in power since 1905 — will rotate the prime minister position in the latest example of mainstream parties striking odd deals to exclude anti-establishment forces, in this case the far-left Sinn Féin. The new coalition now has five years to show voters it can be more than a "green" version of business-as-usual.

Separatists target Pakistan stock exchange: At least seven people died after armed militants from a local separatist group stormed Pakistan's stock exchange in Karachi on Monday. The attack was claimed on social media by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which demands self-determination for this mineral-rich province. The BLA has traditionally targeted Chinese interests in the region, but there have been more recent clashes with the Pakistani military. There is also growing suspicion that the BLA is conducting joint operations with their former rivals from the Balochistan Liberation Front.

Poland presidential vote goes to runoff: President Andrzej Duda won the first round of Poland's presidential election on Sunday, but fell short of the 50 percent majority needed to avoid a July 12 runoff against Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw. Exit polls showed Duda — an ally of the governing Law and Justice party — got almost 42 percent of the vote, while Trzaskowski from the centrist Civic Platform party received over 30 percent. Despite Duda's double-digit lead, the runoff is expected to be very tight in a high-stakes election for Poland, and for the country's tense relationship with the European Union. The Polish president is less powerful than the prime minister but can refuse to sign legislation, and the ruling party doesn't have enough votes to override a veto if Trzaskowski wins.

What We're Ignoring

Iran wants Trump in handcuffs: Iran on Monday asked Interpol to detain US President Donald Trump after issuing an unprecedented arrest warrant for Trump and nearly 40 other US officials Teheran links to the killing of Qassim Suleimani earlier this year. Suleimani, the former leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, was killed by a US drone strike in Iraq in a targeted assassination that brought both sides to the brink of war. Brian Hook, US envoy for Iran, dismissed the move as a "publicity stunt," while Interpol flatly refused to honor the request. Iran said it will continue to pursue the matter even after Trump leaves office.

More from GZERO Media

Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.

President-elect Donald Trump appears remotely for a sentencing hearing in front of New York State Judge Juan Merchan in his hush money case at New York Criminal Court in New York City, on Jan. 10, 2025.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced in his New York hush money case on Friday but received no punishment from Judge Juan M. Merchan, who issued an unconditional discharge with no jail time, probation, or fines

Paige Fusco

In a way, Donald Trump’s return means Putin has finally won. Not because of the silly notion that Trump is a “Russian agent” – but because it closes the door finally and fully on the era of post-Cold War triumphalist globalism that Putin encountered when he first came to power.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria

Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term.

Paige Fusco

Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you. The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive, writes GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon.

- YouTube

Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.

During the Munich Security Conference 2025, the BMW Foundation will again host the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt Pavilion. From February 13th to 15th, we will organize panels, keynotes, and discussions focusing on achieving energy security and economic prosperity through innovation, policy, and global cooperation. The BMW Foundation emphasizes the importance of science-based approaches and believes that the energy transition can serve as a catalyst for economic opportunity, sustainability, and democratic resilience. Our aim is to facilitate solution-oriented dialogues between business, policy, science, and civil society to enhance Europe’s competitiveness in the energy and technology sectors, build a strong economy, and support a future-proof society. Read more about the BMW Foundation and our Pavilion at the Munich Security Conference here.