What We’re Watching: Zemmour jumps in, Bong bows out, Turks get mad

Eric Zemmour, presidential candidate for the 2022 election, speaks on French TV channel TF1.

Zemmour for president. After months of rising in opinion polls, far-right French polemicist Erich Zemmour has made it official: he’s running in next year’s French presidential election. Zemmour, who blames Muslims, liberals, elites, and the EU for what he sees as the decline and emasculation of France, says he is running in order to “prevent our children and our grandchildren from experiencing barbarity.” Could he win? Never say jamais these days, particularly as Zemmour has something of Donald Trump’s provocative star power and media savvy.Still, most polls show that while he could reach a second-round runoff against current President Emmanuel Macron, he would then lose decisively as moderates from across the political spectrum unite behind the incumbent. The more immediate political problem is for far-right stalwart Marine Le Pen who, in trying to broaden her appeal beyond the far right, now finds herself outflanked by the more unapologetically extreme Zemmour.

Bell tolls for Bong in the Philippines. Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, President Rodrigo Duterte’s preferred successor, has dropped out of next year’s presidential race, citing pressure from his family. That means Duterte, who is legally limited to just one term, can now give his (valuable) endorsement to someone else. As things stand, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr — son of the dictator who ran the country until the mid 1980s — is still the clear frontrunner, thanks to his name recognition and strong political alliances in vote-rich regions of the country. But current vice president Leni Robredo is gaining traction, and there is still an outside shot that world-famous boxer Manny Pacquiao, now a senator, could land a punch or two of his own ahead of the vote next May. Duterte’s endorsement could give either of those challengers a big boost, but he’s currently not on great terms with either of them.

In Turkey, prices rise and anger grows. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, like all world leaders, wants a strong economy that can boost his popularity. But Erdogan, unlike other leaders, directly intervenes in the operations of his country’s central bank. By keeping interest rates low, he encourages borrowing that can help boost economic growth. But the constant surge of money into the marketplace also fuels inflation. That’s now happening once again in Turkey, and many consumers are furious. The Turkish lira has lost more than 45 percent of its value this year, and nearly 20 percent just in the past week. Protests are popping up around the country, and police arrested more than 70 protesters in Istanbul last week. Opposition parties are calling for early elections and hoping to organize mass demonstrations. If the unrest grows, Erdogan could declare a state of emergency and grant himself powers more sweeping than those he already has. Turkey looks to be headed for a rough new year.

More from GZERO Media

Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.

President-elect Donald Trump appears remotely for a sentencing hearing in front of New York State Judge Juan Merchan in his hush money case at New York Criminal Court in New York City, on Jan. 10, 2025.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced in his New York hush money case on Friday but received no punishment from Judge Juan M. Merchan, who issued an unconditional discharge with no jail time, probation, or fines

Paige Fusco

In a way, Donald Trump’s return means Putin has finally won. Not because of the silly notion that Trump is a “Russian agent” – but because it closes the door finally and fully on the era of post-Cold War triumphalist globalism that Putin encountered when he first came to power.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria

Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term.

Paige Fusco

Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you. The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive, writes GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon.

- YouTube

Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.

During the Munich Security Conference 2025, the BMW Foundation will again host the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt Pavilion. From February 13th to 15th, we will organize panels, keynotes, and discussions focusing on achieving energy security and economic prosperity through innovation, policy, and global cooperation. The BMW Foundation emphasizes the importance of science-based approaches and believes that the energy transition can serve as a catalyst for economic opportunity, sustainability, and democratic resilience. Our aim is to facilitate solution-oriented dialogues between business, policy, science, and civil society to enhance Europe’s competitiveness in the energy and technology sectors, build a strong economy, and support a future-proof society. Read more about the BMW Foundation and our Pavilion at the Munich Security Conference here.