Who wins and loses from Trump's new Syria policy?

October 07, 2019

and

In a major and unexpected reversal of longstanding US policy, the White House has given Turkey a green light to send its forces into northern Syria, an area currently controlled by US-backed Kurdish militias who have been fighting ISIS. US troops are pulling back. Turkey is delighted. The Kurds are dismayed. Even ISIS might have something to smile about now. By Monday evening, Turkish forces had already waged attacks against American-backed Kurdish forces, which are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Here's a rundown of what this means for the key players:

Turkey: Thrilled. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants two things here. First, to create a "safe zone" within Syria where he can send some of the increasingly unwelcome 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey. Second, to prevent Syrian Kurdish groups – whom Ankara considers terrorists linked to Kurdish militants inside Turkey – from being able to set up any kind of autonomous Kurdish polity in Syria that's right on Turkey's border. Now Erdogan gets to kill two birds with one invasion. But will he go further?

The Kurds: Ghosted. Few peoples in modern history have been as repeatedly and spectacularly betrayed by outside powers as the Kurds, the Middle East's largest ethnic group without an independent country. The 60,000 fighters of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) played a key role in the destruction of ISIS' worldly caliphate, and control of much of northwestern Syria. Now Washington is basically cutting them loose. As they prepare for an onslaught from Turkey, they'll doubtless look for alliances with other key power brokers – whether that's the Syrian government, which will want to push back against Turkish incursions, or the Russian and Iranian forces also active in the country.

US: Unmoved. Trump, who campaigned on disentangling the US from foreign wars, has been trying to get US troops out of Syria for months despite Pentagon concerns that this will open up a vacuum for other powers (such as Russia, Iran, or even ISIS) to fill. As he faces an impeachment inquiry at home, he seems even more fixated on making good on that campaign promise. While earlier US administrations have anguished over the fine line between support for Kurdish groups and the US relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally, Trump is far less conflicted about all of this, even as he comes under fire from some of his strongest Republican allies. Trump has made perfectly clear that he sees little strategic value in Syria. Removing US troops and throwing the problem into Turkey's hands is a win-win from his perspective.

ISIS: Freedom!? SDF-run prisons in Syria currently hold more than 10,000 ISIS fighters from Iraq and Syria, and about 2,500 from elsewhere in the world. If the SDF is at war with Turkey, these fighters might make an easy escape. The White House appears to be giving Ankara wide latitude to do what it wants with any ISIS detainees, but it's unclear what Turkey's plan is. It's worth noting that when former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis left his post last December, he and a host of Pentagon officials had cautioned about precisely the risk of ISIS fighters finding a path back to the battlefield.

Russia: It's too easy. Moscow has had its ups and downs with Turkey in recent years (since almost going to war several years ago they've cultivated a deepening relationship based on shared grievances with "the West"). But the Kremlin will be very pleased to see a scarcer US presence in Syria, the country that Vladimir Putin has made into the keystone of his strategy to reassert Russia's clout in the Middle East.

The biodiversity-shaped piece in the climate crisis puzzle: How to solve it

Mastercard

The clock is ticking on efforts to help halt and reverse biodiversity loss, but there’s still time to help support the animals, plants, and ecosystems that are all necessary for a healthy planet. In order to protect biodiversity — every living organism and ecosystem from microbes to mangroves — citizens, companies, and countries all need to do their part. That’s why the Mastercard-led Priceless Planet Coalition is on a mission to restore 100 million trees and regenerate biodiversity-rich forests. Read more about the Coalition's approach and progress.

Hot topics at the IMF-World Bank meetings

- YouTube

youtu.be

Delegates at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings have been giving rosy outlooks to the press while the cameras are rolling, but GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick heard a different story in private settings. He told Tony Maciulis that the global outlook depends heavily on US policy continuity — which is highly unlikely under a second Trump administration — and successful efforts in China to revive its own floundering economy.

Can the IMF change to help more women?

Matthew Kendrick

When a country hits rock bottom financially, the International Monetary Fund is meant to step in with funds to stabilize the economy without damaging its society — or the gender gap. But studies show that these programs often push women out of work at a disproportionate rate to men as the economy contracts. Matthew Kendrick reports from the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings on a push to build more equitable programs.

North Korean troops move into Russia’s border area with Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a farewell ceremony before Putin's departure at an airport in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024.

Gavriil Grigorov/Reuters

Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.”

Who wins and loses from Trump's new Syria policy?

GZEROMEDIA

More from GZERO Media

The biodiversity-shaped piece in the climate crisis puzzle: How to solve it

Hot topics at the IMF-World Bank meetings

Can we achieve gender equality by 2030?

This week World Bank announced a bold initiative to bridge the gender divide by creating more economic opportunity, broadening female leadership, and reducing gender-based violence in the next 5 years as 2030 approaches.

Can the IMF change to help more women?

Opinion: Colors, Ta-Nehisi Coates, and the use of your eyes

There are times when we need more context, and there are times when we do not. How do we tell the difference?

GZEROMEDIA

Hard Numbers: Turkey retaliates for terror bombing, Boeing workers reject deal, Biden to issue historic apology, Brand new prime number, Los Angeles DA recommends resentencing for Menendez brothers

North Korean troops move into Russia’s border area with Ukraine

Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.”

Georgia’s vote: A contest between Russia and the West

Georgian Dream insists the country is still on track to join the EU, as critics accuse the party of pushing Georgia in an increasingly anti-Western, authoritarian direction.

Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7

In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.

Texas showdown: Trump and Harris target the different sides of gender divide

With the latest polls still showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the swing states, both candidates are heading to Texas, a far less competitive state, with hopes of reaching key voter groups nationwide.

Who wins and loses from Trump's new Syria policy?

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

More from GZERO Media

This week World Bank announced a bold initiative to bridge the gender divide by creating more economic opportunity, broadening female leadership, and reducing gender-based violence in the next 5 years as 2030 approaches.

There are times when we need more context, and there are times when we do not. How do we tell the difference?

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.”

Georgian Dream insists the country is still on track to join the EU, as critics accuse the party of pushing Georgia in an increasingly anti-Western, authoritarian direction.

In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.

With the latest polls still showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the swing states, both candidates are heading to Texas, a far less competitive state, with hopes of reaching key voter groups nationwide.