Why quantum computing could be a geopolitical time bomb

Late last month, Google confirmed that a special kind of rig known as a "quantum computer" had performed an amazing feat. In just a few minutes, it managed to perform a calculation that would have taken the world's most powerful supercomputers thousands of years. The race to develop these computers is in, and it's not just computer nerds who are hyped up about this – the fight for "quantum supremacy," could one day have huge geopolitical implications too.

So what the heck is quantum computing, and why does it matter? Here's a quick rundown:

What the heck is quantum computing? It's a way of computing that is immeasurably faster than what existing computers do. Traditional computers work by adding up 1s and 0s. Quantum computers are, very roughly speaking, able to make finer distinctions between the two, which allows tremendously complex calculations to be done in a fraction of the time it would take using a traditional computer.

There's still a lot of work left to do before Google, or anyone else, can create a reliable quantum computer that works outside of a narrow laboratory setting, but as this recent article by a computer scientist argues, Google's breakthrough is an important milestone on the way there.

Why it matters: the US, China, Russia, and other countries are racing to roll out national strategies, cultivate talent and pump money into quantum computing. Why? Well, quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize how scientists create new medicines or materials, which could boost health and the national economy. They might even help answer fundamental questions about the nature of the universe, which would be a huge win for science. But much more important than all of that is the fact that whoever can build a powerful enough quantum computer might be able to use it to CRACK ALL OF THE CODES.

Consider: In order to crack the encryption on everything from your bank account to nuclear war plans, today's most powerful supercomputers would have to crunch numbers longer than the lifespan of the known universe. But a powerful enough quantum computer might be able to crack the same code in just a few hours, giving whoever owns it access to other countries and their citizens' most sensitive secrets.

No alarms and no surprises, please: That would be a geopolitical earthquake, and at some point, maybe even soon, it's bound to happen. The big question isn't if, it's how: will it be a surprise when it happens? If so, buckle up. If one country suddenly gained an ability to crack its adversaries' codes it might be tempted to use that power to its advantage, while rivals that suddenly wake up to find their most sensitive information compromised might feel a strong temptation to lash out defensively, heightening the risk of global conflict. A quantum surprise could also have immediate destabilizing effects on the economy if people suddenly feared their money was no longer secure and sparked a run on the banking system.

Conversely, the risks of a major flare-up would be lower if governments and companies were able to give each other some measure of transparency about their quantum projects and to develop new, stronger forms of encryption that can keep pace with that progress to keep essential information secure.

But that doesn't seem to be where things are headed. Instead, technologies like artificial intelligence and 5G have already become hotly politicized by growing strategic competition between the US and China. The closer scientists get to building a working quantum computer, the greater the risk that governments will move the most cutting-edge research behind closed doors. That would heighten the risk that one country or another pops a politically destabilizing quantum surprise.

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

Fifty years after the fall of Saigon (or its liberation, depending on whom you ask), Vietnam has transformed from a war-torn battleground to one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies—and now finds itself caught between two superpowers. Ian Bremmer breaks down how Vietnam went from devastation in the wake of the Vietnam War to becoming a regional economic powerhouse.

Eurasia Group and GZERO Media are seeking a highly creative, detail-oriented Graphic and Animation Designer who lives and breathes news, international affairs, and policy. The ideal candidate has demonstrated experience using visual storytelling—including data visualizations and short-form animations—to make complex geopolitical topics accessible, social-friendly, and engaging across platforms. You will join a dynamic team of researchers, editors, video producers, and writers to elevate our storytelling and thought leadership through innovative multimedia content.

The body of Pope Francis in the coffin exposed in St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City on April 24, 2025. The funeral will be celebrated on Saturday in St. Peter's Square.
Pasquale Gargano/KONTROLAB/ipa-agency.net/IPA/Sipa USA

While the Catholic world prepares for the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday – the service begins at 10 a.m. local time, 4 a.m. ET – certain high-profile attendees may also have other things on their mind. Several world leaders will be on hand to pay their respects to the pontiff, but they could also find themselves involved in bilateral talks.

A Ukrainian rescue worker sits atop the rubble of a destroyed residential building during rescue operations, following a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building block in Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025.
Photo by Justin Yau/ Sipa USA
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce.

Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
Photo by David Talukdar/NurPhoto

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government.