Will Pegasus set Bibi free?

sraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wearing a face mask, looks as his corruption trial resumes, at Jerusalem's District Court April 5, 2021
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his corruption trial at Jerusalem's District Court
Abir Sultan/via REUTERS

Israel’s spy agencies are notoriously sly operators. They have been known to take out high-profile targets in far-flung places around the world. Most famously, the Mossad tracked down and killed those involved in the massacre of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972.

But Israel’s spying prowess is rarely used on civilians at home – until now. (They do regularly track Palestinians.) It was recently alleged that police used Pegasus, state-of-the-art spyware, to track and hack a slew of politicians, activists, and journalists. Crucially, the bombshell report by Calcalist, an Israeli financial daily, claims that members of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s inner circle – including witnesses in his ongoing corruption trial – were also hacked.

A government-led investigation is now trying to get to the bottom of the still-uncorroborated claims. But if they’re confirmed, the political ramifications could be mammoth.

Background. The name Pegasus might ring a bell. The software, developed by NSO, a private Israeli tech company, was sold to a variety of unsavory governments that used it to hack political opponents and dissidents. (The Saudis reportedly used malware to hack relatives of slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi.) Because of laws governing the export of cyber tools, the Israeli government, then led by Netanyahu, signed off on these sales.

Bibi resurrected? As Bibi’s public trial on bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges has brought yet more damning revelations to light, many observers have said in recent months that the Likud leader could end up in jail.

But if it is proven that police hacked and stole data belonging to Netanyahu’s son, his political advisors, and other key witnesses without judicial approval, then much of the evidence presented in court could be compromised. While Israeli law does not require judges to dismiss evidence obtained illegally, the court handling this case will have to decide whether to disqualify any illegally obtained evidence on a case-by-case basis.

Natan Sachs, who heads the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, says it’s too early to know what the court might do with the evidence. “In general, the Israeli rules for admissibility of evidence are less strict than in the US, and the ‘fruit of the poisonous tree’ is not dismissed quite as quickly,” he says. Still, “a lot is still unknown … and I’m sure Netanyahu’s legal team will mount an effort to dismiss the evidence.”

Whatever happens, recent revelations are likely to dilute the prosecutor’s case by lending credence to the pro-Bibi battle cry that the charges are part of a political “witch hunt.” The court has already agreed this week to delay two hearings while the wiretapping allegations are probed. If Bibi – who heads the biggest party in the Knesset and is popular on the right – gets off with just a slap on the wrist, he would remain a formidable player in Israeli politics.

Can a fragile coalition survive? Last summer, after four elections in two years, Israel finally formed a new government. The broad coalition – made up of seven parties, including Arabs and Jews – is one of the most ideologically diverse in the country's history. Motivated by a shared ambition to keep Bibi out of power, the coalition – which successfully passed the first state budget in almost three years – has so far proven wrong the naysayers who predicted its imminent downfall.

Still, the coalition is unwieldy, and a scandal like this would be hard for any government to weather. Things could start to unravel if it’s revealed that high-level government officials had any prior knowledge of the hacks.

But Lahav Harkov, diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Post, disagrees. She doesn’t think this scandal will impact the coalition’s stability. “It seems that the entire government agrees that there should be an investigation of some type, and many ministers have publicly called for a commission of inquiry,” Harkov says. This sort of “high-level government-appointed investigative body has been used to examine huge issues like the handling of the Yom Kippur War.”

Indeed, recriminations are already flying: Gidon Sa’ar, who now heads the ministry of justice, says these illegal wiretaps occurred under Netanyahu’s watch. Meanwhile, Bibi’s Likud party, now in opposition, smells blood in the water and an opportunity to reverse its political misfortunes. But that effort is unlikely to succeed, according to Sachs, who points out that “this affair all happened, ironically, under Netanyahu, and most of the relevant ministers and police officials were his own appointments.”

Looking ahead. Ultimately, a lot would have to go right for charges against Bibi to be dismissed. But never rule out the resilience of a man who has managed to maneuver his way across many political minefields over the past four decades.

More from GZERO Media

Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.

President-elect Donald Trump appears remotely for a sentencing hearing in front of New York State Judge Juan Merchan in his hush money case at New York Criminal Court in New York City, on Jan. 10, 2025.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced in his New York hush money case on Friday but received no punishment from Judge Juan M. Merchan, who issued an unconditional discharge with no jail time, probation, or fines

Paige Fusco

In a way, Donald Trump’s return means Putin has finally won. Not because of the silly notion that Trump is a “Russian agent” – but because it closes the door finally and fully on the era of post-Cold War triumphalist globalism that Putin encountered when he first came to power.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria

Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term.

Paige Fusco

Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you. The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive, writes GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon.

- YouTube

Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.

During the Munich Security Conference 2025, the BMW Foundation will again host the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt Pavilion. From February 13th to 15th, we will organize panels, keynotes, and discussions focusing on achieving energy security and economic prosperity through innovation, policy, and global cooperation. The BMW Foundation emphasizes the importance of science-based approaches and believes that the energy transition can serve as a catalyst for economic opportunity, sustainability, and democratic resilience. Our aim is to facilitate solution-oriented dialogues between business, policy, science, and civil society to enhance Europe’s competitiveness in the energy and technology sectors, build a strong economy, and support a future-proof society. Read more about the BMW Foundation and our Pavilion at the Munich Security Conference here.