Will Trump reverse Biden’s move on long-range missiles for Ukraine?

President Joe Biden has reportedly decided to lift a ban on Ukraine using US-supplied long-range missiles on targets inside Russia — and Moscow is livid. The change in US policy comes after North Korea deployed thousands of troops to help Russian forces.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday said the outgoing administration was pouring “fuel on the fire.” One Russian lawmaker went as far to warn that the move could spark World War III.

Is the Kremlin’s bite as strong as its bark? “Throughout the war, Russia has taken actions aimed at avoiding a direct military confrontation with NATO states, and so has NATO against Russia. Rhetoric aside, Moscow’s caution most likely hasn’t changed,” says Alex Brideau, a Russia expert at Eurasia Group.

Will Trump reverse course? President-elect Donald Trump, who’s expressed opposition to continued US aid to Kyiv, wants to quickly end the war in Ukraine and could pump the brakes on this policy shift once in office.

“Trump can roll back the permission or otherwise limit what Ukraine can do with the missiles,” says Brideau. “At the same time, the permission to use the missiles is a leverage point against Russia, to try to push Putin into negotiations. So it is possible Trump could hold onto that card as he tries to get the two sides to the table.”