What We're Watching

Winning isn’t everything in Lisbon

Andre Ventura, the leader of the party, is casting his vote to elect the new Prime Minister of Portugal at the Parque das Nacoes school in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 10, 2024. Pre-election polls are indicating that the Democratic Alliance (AD) is the likely winner of the legislative elections.
Andre Ventura, the leader of the party, is casting his vote to elect the new Prime Minister of Portugal at the Parque das Nacoes school in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 10, 2024. Pre-election polls are indicating that the Democratic Alliance (AD) is the likely winner of the legislative elections.
Nuno Cruz/NurPhoto via Reuters

Portugal’s election over the weekend had two winners.

The mathematical winner: the center-right Democratic Alliance, which took 79 seats in the 230-seat Parliament, eking out a narrow victory over the left-leaning incumbents of the Socialist Party, with 77.

The zeitgeist winner: the far-right Chega party, which quadrupled its seats to 48. Chega, which means “Enough!” is fiercely anti-immigration and has adopted the “God, Country, Family, and Work” slogan of Portugal’s former dictatorship.

The trouble is that those two winners can’t work together. DA leader Luis Montenegro has ruled out a coalition with Chega which, despite its strong performance, carries the stigma of the country’s fascist past.

That leaves Portugal in its most fragmented and uncertain political state since the end of the dictatorship.

But this isn’t the first time in recent months that a European far-right party has found itself unable to use its kingmaker’s powers. Precisely the same thing happened in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party was popular enough to sing at the polls, but too toxic to enter government.

As the EU heads towards European Parliamentary elections, bear this in mind – the recent “resurgence of the right” in Europe is more nuanced than it looks.

More For You

Mastercard Economic Institute's Outlook 2026 explores the forces redefining global business. Tariffs, technology, and transformation define an adaptive economy for the year ahead. Expect moderate growth amid easing inflation, evolving fiscal policies, and rapid AI adoption, driving productivity. Digital transformation for SMEs and shifts in trade and consumer behavior will shape strategies worldwide. Stay ahead with insights to help navigate complexity and seize emerging opportunities. Learn more here.

Miami Mayor-elect Eileen Higgins points as she thanks her staff and supporters on the night of the general election, on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025.
Carl Juste/Miami Herald/TNS/ABACAPRESS.COM

A Democrat won Miami’s mayoral race for the first time in nearly 30 years. The Republican defeat will ring some alarms for the party – and their support among Latino voters.

Women work in the plastic container assembly area inside the El Oso shoe polish factory, located in Mexico City, Mexico, in its new facilities, after officers from the Secretariat of Citizen Security and staff from the Benito Juarez mayor's office arbitrarily and violently remove their supplies, raw materials, machinery, and work tools on January 17 of this year following a coordinated operation stemming from a private dispute. On August 27, 2025.
Photo by Gerardo Vieyra/NurPhoto

50: Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is taking a page out of US President Donald Trump’s book, implementing up to a 50% tariff on more than 1,400 products in a bid to boost domestic production.