Your move, Iran

It's been four days since Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, died in a hail of bullets on a highway near Tehran. Iran has plausibly blamed Israel for the killing, but more than that, not much is known credibly or in detail.

This is hardly the first time that an Iranian nuclear scientist has been assassinated in an operation that has a whiff of Mossad about it. But Fakhrizadeh's prominence — he is widely regarded as the father of the Iranian nuclear program — as well as the timing of the killing, just six weeks from the inauguration of a new American president, make it a particularly big deal. Not least because an operation this sensitive would almost certainly have required a US sign-off.

So what's the aftermath?

Killing Fakhrizadeh does two things immediately. In the most immediate term, it may — along with the recent bombing (also likely by Israel) of a key nuclear site — deal a temporary blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions. But it will hardly derail a program as extensive and sophisticated as what the Iranians have built over the past two decades.

But more broadly, the killing could complicate the prospects of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, something that US president-elect Joe Biden has said he wants to do when he takes office in January.

As a refresher: Under that pact, Iran froze its nuclear weapons programs in exchange for the removal of some US and international sanctions. But Israel and many Iran hawks in Washington said the pact didn't do enough to permanently stop Iran's path to a bomb, and that it failed to curb Iran's other weapons programs and regional proxy wars. In 2018, Trump left the deal and reimposed sanctions. Since then Iran has ramped up its nuclear program, while the Trump administration has applied tighter sanctions still.

Now, with tensions rising and the Iranians progressing towards a bomb again, Biden says he's willing to consider stepping back into the agreement, lifting sanctions again if Iran goes back to the uranium limits agreed in the 2015 deal.

Doing that would require Biden to lead extremely deft negotiations not only with Tehran but also on Capitol Hill, where many American lawmakers are skeptical of any overtures towards Iran at all.

And that's where the Fakhrizadeh killing could make things even harder: if the Iranians respond forcefully to the assassination — say by striking at a target within Israel, or by attacking US forces as they did in retaliation for the US killing of Qassim Suleimani in January — Biden could take office in January amid a cycle of escalation that makes it very hard to sit down and talk calmly with Tehran at all.

That puts the ball in Iran's court right now — and it's a court divided. Strong supporters of the Iran deal, like president Hassan Rouhani, will doubtless want to keep things cool until January and see what Biden brings to the table. But harder line figures who were always skeptical of the Iran deal will be itching to respond to the killing, but they also wish to see some of the more crippling oil and banking sanctions removed.

How, then, to balance the revolutionary impulse to save face with the pragmatic need to get economic relief? In part it depends on how realistic Tehran thinks a return to the Iran deal is.

Either way, we would love to be inside the Iranian Leadership's "Assassination Response" WhatsApp group right now. Supreme Leader Khamenei is typing...

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

Fifty years after the fall of Saigon (or its liberation, depending on whom you ask), Vietnam has transformed from a war-torn battleground to one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies—and now finds itself caught between two superpowers. Ian Bremmer breaks down how Vietnam went from devastation in the wake of the Vietnam War to becoming a regional economic powerhouse.

Eurasia Group and GZERO Media are seeking a highly creative, detail-oriented Graphic and Animation Designer who lives and breathes news, international affairs, and policy. The ideal candidate has demonstrated experience using visual storytelling—including data visualizations and short-form animations—to make complex geopolitical topics accessible, social-friendly, and engaging across platforms. You will join a dynamic team of researchers, editors, video producers, and writers to elevate our storytelling and thought leadership through innovative multimedia content.

The body of Pope Francis in the coffin exposed in St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City on April 24, 2025. The funeral will be celebrated on Saturday in St. Peter's Square.
Pasquale Gargano/KONTROLAB/ipa-agency.net/IPA/Sipa USA

While the Catholic world prepares for the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday – the service begins at 10 a.m. local time, 4 a.m. ET – certain high-profile attendees may also have other things on their mind. Several world leaders will be on hand to pay their respects to the pontiff, but they could also find themselves involved in bilateral talks.

A Ukrainian rescue worker sits atop the rubble of a destroyed residential building during rescue operations, following a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building block in Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025.
Photo by Justin Yau/ Sipa USA
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce.

Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
Photo by David Talukdar/NurPhoto

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government.

- YouTube

“When things are going fine, nobody really tests the skills and talents of their financial advisor, but this is a moment where really good advice can be extraordinarily powerful,” says Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute's CEO and President. In conversation with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis, Franklin describes the current financial climate as “maximum uncertainty,” rating it a 10 out of 10 on the risk scale.

President Donald Trump at a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he would deliver a “fair deal” with China and that he’d be “very nice” to the country after meeting with major retailers. But Beijing denies that there are any ongoing talks and has told the US it must cancel its unilateral tariffs before China will broker any negotiations.