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Saudi navy officials help civilians onboard their ship to be evacuated from Sudan.
No truce in Sudan
Fierce fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces resumed on Sunday in Sudan, with the two warring parties accusing each other of violating a fragile ceasefire. The truce was again extended for another 72 hours, but don't keep your hopes up.
As the security situation worsens, foreign countries keep scrambling to get their citizens out. The US, which last week was reluctant to carry out a mass evacuation of Americans, over the weekend changed its mind and dispatched a convoy to Saudi Arabia via Port Sudan. Other foreign nationals were less lucky: A Turkish aircraft came under fire, highlighting how dangerous airlifts have become.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis has gone from bad to worse. Some two-thirds of hospitals in battleground areas of Khartoum are out of service, with medical supplies, health workers, water, and electricity all in short supply. More than 500 civilians have been killed in three weeks of clashes and over 20,000 Sudanese have fled to neighboring Chad.
Former PM Abdalla Hamdok warned that the ongoing conflict could become worse than Libya or Syria. Based on the available firepower and the sheer number of outside players that might get involved, it's certainly no exaggeration.What We're Watching: A shaky deal in Sudan
A tenuous deal in Sudan. One month after the Sudanese army deposed the country's joint civilian-military government, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok was released from detention Sunday. The new deal negotiated by Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who led last month's coup, reinstates Hamdok as PM and calls for the release of arbitrarily detained political prisoners. Al-Burhan says he supports the return to a power-sharing agreement, though it's unclear what this might actually look like given that the military staged the coup in the first place to avoid handing over executive powers to the civilian leadership. Meanwhile, protesters took to the streets of Khartoum Sunday, saying the deal is merely a ploy by the military to get Washington to remove crippling sanctions, while still maintaining a grip on power. Indeed, critics say that the ongoing political involvement of Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – a former paramilitary leader with close ties to Sudan's former despot Omar al-Bashir – is proof that the military wing of the government is not serious about democratic reforms.
Aid to Sudan suspended over military coup; China's bid to join CPTPP
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Sudan's military coup, China's efforts to join the CPTPP, and the UK's Brexit-induced disruptions.
The coup has taken over in Sudan. What's happening there?
Well, there are coups and attempted coups in Sudan all the time. In this case, the military taking out a transitional civilian government, which is problematic for a couple of reasons. One, because they're not going to allow investigations to proceed. And with a lot of the generals taking over, being with corruption charges against them. And secondly, because the money that they desperately need from the IMF international aid and other sources not coming because they've gotten rid of the economic comparative technocrats, including the Prime Minister, an economist himself. There's going to be need to back down and at least compromise at some point because they're desperate to have international support, but first, they want to ensure that they're all staying in power. And that is unfortunate for the people of Sudan. And if it mattered to the United States and Europe, they'd be making headlines, but it really doesn't. It's like Egypt and Ethiopia and the Emirates are the key players here and you're not going to see many headlines.
Following China's application to join the TPP, what does it mean for the agreement and how does it influence the United States?
The interesting thing about the CPTPP, the Comprehensive Partnership, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or whatever we call it now, it is the most important high-level, high-standard multilateral trade deal in the world. And the two most important economies globally aren't a part of it. China, because they won't be let in, because they don't actually have the standards, the trade standards, the transparency, the rule of law, the lack of state control over the economy to be allowed in. And the United States, because free trade and multilateral trade deals can't get support in Congress from either the Democrats or the Republicans. That's what's really interesting about this. The fact that they want to join does show that they want to be seen by countries in Asia as an economic solution and partner, especially as the United States is continued to be seen, if anything, only more strongly as the principal military and national security partner. But ultimately, this is about when the Americans and Chinese can't get it done, other countries can. Not the worst thing in the world always, we're seeing some of that on climate too, by the way.
Is Brexit still a mess in Europe?
Well, the interesting thing here is I'd say, no, not really. It's really a mess in the UK. The UK is having an enormous problem. They can't get truck drivers. And so, you've got all of these good shortages and price inflation that's worse because of Brexit. And they're saying, "Oh, we'll let in immigrants from other countries near term because we just desperately need the labor." Well, yeah, if you were still in the EU, this wouldn't be such a problem for you, but you voted for Brexit. Meanwhile, I was just talking to the German government last week. I did a brief for a lot of the new leaders that are coming in and the traffic light coalition. And this was an entire day of meetings with different policy analysts and leaders around the world. And the UK Brexit literally was not brought up once. They have other challenges right now. And as a consequence, ultimately, this is a bigger problem for the UK, which has a lot less influence and a lot more difficulty in terms of disruptions to their economy.