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Mexican authorities and firefighters remove injured migrants, mostly Venezuelans, from inside the National Migration Institute (INM) building during a fire, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico March 27, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Deadly Mexican fire, ZAUKUS, terror in the Sahel, Luke Skywalker saves Ukraine
38: Migrants fearing deportation set an immigration detention center ablaze in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, killing 38 asylum-seekers and critically injuring dozens. The blaze was one of the deadliest incidents ever for Mexico's immigration system, which is accused of mistreating migrants as it struggles to accommodate the rising number of asylum-seekers arriving at the U.S-Mexico border.
4: New Zealand may become the 4th country to join the US, UK, and Australia in the AUKUS alliance – or shall we say ZAUKUS? While less concerned with the non-nuclear pillar of the alliance – the part Wellington may join – China has already signaled its opposition to AUKUS’S potential to disrupt the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
2,000: The number of terrorism victims has increased by 2,000% in the Sahel region of Africa over the past 15 years, according to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index. More than 20,000 civilians have been killed by terrorism in the region since 2007 – a concern for local governments and European leaders faced with increased migration as a result of the violence.
14 million: Luke Skywalker has joined the fight. Mark Hamill, who played Skywalker, is the new voice of Ukraine's aerial bombardment Air Alert app. The app has been downloaded over 14 million times, and now Ukrainian users will hear the Jedi Knight warn them when to find shelter – before sending them on their way (when the danger has passed) with the iconic phrase: “May the force be with you.”
Then and Now: Iran’s public trials, Somalia’s new cabinet, El Salvador’s state of emergency
Three Months ago: Islamic Republic announces (sham) public trials
Media attention may have subsided, but protesters in Iran remain unbowed four months after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini – she was arrested by the Islamic Republic’s “morality police” three days before her death – set off something resembling a revolution. Three months ago, we wrote that the mullahs who rule the country with an iron fist had announced the public trial of around 1,000 Iranians for participating in anti-regime demonstrations. Since then, at least four men have been publicly hanged: Sayed Mohammad Hosseini, 39, Mohammad Mehdi Karami, 22, a karate champ, Majid Reza Rahnavard, 23, a store worker, and Mohsen Shekari, 23, a barista. They were each accused of killing a member of the Basij paramilitary, a ruthless volunteer force that operates under the draconian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp – though rights groups say their confessions were coerced under torture.
What’s more, these death sentences were doled out by a small group of radical judges in “sham trials.” At least 17 others have been handed down death sentences, but several have been stalled due to appeals. (This is likely a gross undercount as the Islamic Republic isn’t known for transparency.) A whopping 19,500 people have been arrested since September for taking part in demonstrations, which are still ongoing but smaller. The Islamic Republic was hoping that images of hanged men dangling from cranes would scare protesters into submission, but as one protester told The Guardian, they’ve simply made people more furious, noting that “they’ve created this fire under the ashes.”
Six months ago: Somalia’s government recruits former al-Shabab chief to fight … al-Shabab
When appointing a new cabinet last summer, Somalia’s PM did something unheard of: He tapped Mukhtar Robow, a former al-Shabab spokesperson who trained with al-Qaida in Afghanistan and once had a $5 million bounty on his head – as the new religious affairs minister. The aim was for Robow, who broke ranks with the radical Sunni group in 2017, to help the government encourage additional al-Shabab defectors as part of its bid to wage “total war” against the militant group. So, how’s that plan going? Al-Shabab has continued to wreak havoc on the country, including a recent attack on a Somali military base that killed 11 soldiers as well as a deadly attack on a Mogadishu hotel frequented by lawmakers in Nov. 2022. Crucially, the US-backed government has also made some gains in pushing the group out of urban areas in central Somalia. And in recent days, US ground troops killed Bilal al-Sudani, the Islamic State’s point person in Somalia. While ISIS is less potent in Somalia than the al-Qaida-aligned al-Shabab, the fact that President Joe Biden greenlit this ground operation reinforces that Washington is deeply concerned about Somalia exporting terrorism throughout the region. Meanwhile, Somali troops recently captured Harardhere, a port town and major supply route for the terror organization, as well as the nearby town of Galcad. In recent days the US carried out airstrikes northeast of Mogadishu that killed 30 combatants. Indeed, these are significant gains, but much of the campaign’s future successes will be contingent upon the government’s ability to cooperate with clan militias around the country.
Nine months ago: Will El Salvador’s strongman remain popular?
Last April, we wrote about El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s bid to address the gang-ridden country’s out-of-control crime rate. It’s been nine months since Bukele, a millennial and former political outsider, enforced a state of emergency that gave him extraordinary powers to crack down on the country’s roughly 70,000 gang members. At the time, Bukele’s approval rating was sky-high, but citizens accustomed to democratic proceedings don’t typically take well to curbs on their rights. Nine months later, Bukele’s approval rating hovers around … 83%. Despite the fact that he’s rounded up and jailed nearly 2% of the entire adult population, resulting in at least 90 in-custody deaths, support for his state of emergency remains widespread. What’s more, a new Human Rights Watch report, based on a leaked government database, suggests that children have also been rounded up as part of this tough-on-crime spree, while prisons remain dangerously overcrowded. Some 100,000 have been arrested as part of his campaign, which includes suspending the right to be informed why they were detained and the right to legal counsel, and Salvadorans still want more Bukele! That’s in large part because his plan is working: According to government data, El Salvador’s homicide rate reportedly declined by a staggering 56.8% in 2022. Human rights groups have criticized Bukele’s government, but Salvadorans say they care more about security. This bodes well for Bukele, who should cruise to reelection in 2024.
Internally displaced Somali women stand in a queue waiting for relief food to be served south of Mogadishu, September 5, 2011.
Famine looms in Somalia
The effects of the global food crisis have hit some parts of the globe harder than others. Prone to drought and largely reliant on food imports, the Horn of Africa is reeling, and Somalia, in particular, is facing an acute crisis.
The UN warned this week that “famine is at the door” of the 17 million-strong country, cautioning that several provinces in the southern Bay region could be in the throes of a deadly famine by the end of the year.
Somalia’s current predicament is a cautionary tale for other East African states that have also been pummeled in recent decades by extreme weather events and social and political instability.
First, what constitutes famine?
The UN, in conjunction with national governments, will give a famine designation when 20% of households in a given area are facing an extreme lack of food – and if 30% of children in those areas suffer from acute malnutrition. Technically, it means two adults or four children out of every 10,000 people are dying daily. Parts of Somalia could reach these grim milestones as early as next month, the UN says, with more than 850,000 Somalis living in affected areas.
How did Somalia get here?
Drought and climate change. Somalia has long been prone to drought as a result of arid conditions and irregular rainfall that also affects the wider Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia and Kenya. The problem has been exacerbated by climate change, which has led to more prolonged dry spells that have decimated livestock and water supplies and pummeled the agriculture trade.
The collapse in domestic food crops in Somalia – and surging demand as a result of urbanization – has led to a massive increase in food imports over the past three decades. In 2015, agriculture imports in Somalia rose 18 times to $1.5 billion, up from $82 million in the late 1980s. Indeed, this reliance on outside food sources has made the country increasingly vulnerable to global economic shocks and rising food prices. What’s more, government ineptitude and corruption led to vast underinvestment in the agriculture sector, which in 2018 accounted for 75% of Somalia’s total gross domestic product.
But would an official famine designation drive up foreign funding? Eurasia Group Africa analyst Connor Vasey says that is unlikely.
"The UN designation is important – it provides a bigger platform for the food security issue and increases the perceived urgency – but it comes at a time where other serious crises are still unfolding," Vasey says, adding that "many of the big financial players are primarily concerned with what is going on in the western hemisphere, which is not encouraging."
The Russia-Ukraine factor. Before the war in Ukraine, Somalia imported 90% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe. As Ukrainian supplies have been choked off by a Russian blockade at its Black Sea ports, Mogadishu has been forced to compete for limited global supplies with other major wheat importers (like Turkey and Egypt) that have deeper pockets.
Conflict. Thirty years since Somalia’s brutal civil war ended, the country is still rife with violence and mired in sectarian conflict.
Al-Shabab, the terror group affiliated with al-Qaida, has wreaked havoc throughout Somalia – and the region – since 2006, targeting civilians in deadly suicide bombings as part of its anti-government insurgency. The group also controls large swaths of territory, particularly in southern and central Somalia, and has often targeted UN aid workers, which has made it difficult to get food aid to those who need it.
In recent years, some aid organizations have balked at having to negotiate with – and pay off – al-Shabab militants to deliver food aid, while other groups say it’s too dangerous to send their staff into such volatile areas. Indeed, the UN World Food Programme has previously suspended its operations in southern Somalia because of an uptick in Islamist violence.
"Access issues are major hindrance to the deployment of humanitarian assistance," Vasey says.
"On the one hand this is created by al-Shabaab itself and its activities, but it is further complicated by the efforts of pro-government forces (and others) to neutralize al-Shabaab. Recent rhetoric from the government suggests an increase in the latter issue, with hard-to-reach areas becoming, well, harder to reach."
Moreover, aid organizations and foreign governments are fearful of running afoul of US laws preventing the financing of terror organizations. (Washington in 2008 designated al-Shabab a Foreign Terrorist Organization, which prohibits “economic transactions” with the group.) Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre recently tapped a former high-ranking al-Shabab militant to serve in his cabinet in hopes of healing internal strife, but al-Shabab violence remains rampant.
A perfect storm. With the UN General Assembly set to kick off next week, followed in November by the UN’s Climate Change Conference in Cairo, many politicians will use the UN podium to draw attention to the geopolitics of climate change and the inequities of the related food crisis. (Pakistan, for its part, is still reeling from deadly floods that have killed more than 1,300 people, while India recently experienced a once-in-a-generation heatwave.)
Meanwhile, parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and elsewhere, are also facing acute food shortages, raising fears of famine, according to the WFP.
Somalia is at the frontline of the current food calamity. But sadly, many countries appear to be destined for a similar fate.
Somalia appoints former al Shabaab spokesperson as minister in Mogadishu
What We're Watching: Somalia's new cabinet, takeaways from US primaries, Peru's president in peril
Somalia appoints former al-Shabab militant to cabinet
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has named former al-Shabab spokesperson, Muktar Robow, as Somalia’s minister for endowment and religious affairs. A veteran of the Afghan war, who was training with al-Qaida in Afghanistan during 9/11, Robow helped found al-Shabab, which is fighting to overthrow the Somali government in a bid to invoke a strict interpretation of Sharia law. The militants have killed tens of thousands since 2007, and they’ve recently been involved in cross-border attacks in Ethiopia. Robow (aka Abu Mansour), who once had a $5 million bounty on his head, broke from the al-Qaida-linked militants back in 2017. Arrested by Somali authorities in 2018 to prevent him from running for office, Robow had been under house arrest in Mogadishu until last year, when he was taken back into custody. This week, he was released just before his new role was announced. As the new face of Somalia’s war against al-Shabab, Robow is tasked with helming the ideological battle against the terrorists. Some believe this will strengthen the government’s hand against al-Shabab, but critics fear it could lead to sectarian violence.
Key takeaways from US primaries
Five US states – Arizona, Missouri, Michigan, Washington, and Kansas – held primaries on Tuesday, giving an indication of the public mood in parts of the country just 12 weeks out from midterm elections. So, what happened? Trump-aligned candidates did pretty well. In Michigan, Rep. Peter Meijer – a freshman and one of just a handful of Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump – was defeated by an extreme pro-Trumper who has spread conspiracy theories (read lies) that Dems engaged in satanic rituals. In Arizona’s nail-biter GOP gubernatorial primary, Keri Lake, a Trump-backed TV presenter who propagates the former president’s lies about election fraud, was polling ahead of her rival with more than 80% of ballots counted. A slate of other Trump-aligned candidates also won primaries throughout the Grand Canyon state. Some Democrats will be happy with these outcomes, believing that far-right candidates will be easier to beat in battleground states this fall, but others have been critical of the strategy. Meanwhile, in Kansas, abortion-rights supporters were celebrating after 59% of voters rejected an amendment to the State Constitution to allow the state to regulate – or ban – abortion. High turnout in the Sunflower State suggests that abortion rights could indeed be an energizing issue for Democrats this fall.
Peru’s president in peril
Amid widening criminal investigations centered on President Pedro Castillo, Prime Minister Anibal Torres quit on Wednesday. Torres, a longtime Castillo ally, said he just wanted to go back to a quiet life of “legal research.” The resignation is the latest crumble of the cookie for Castillo, an upstart leftwing populist who stunned the country by winning the presidency last year, but who has been beset by scandals, missteps, and a fractious Congress since taking office. He is currently under investigation for alleged treason and for running a criminal enterprise from the presidential palace. Small wonder that his approval rating has plunged to below 20%, and our friends at Eurasia Group say it’s “only a matter of time” before lawmakers force him out. If this sounds topsy turvy, it is, but it’s also not unusual for Peru, where political parties are plentiful but weak, and presidents rarely have solid majorities in the legislature. The country went through a period in 2020 where there were three different presidents in the space of a month.Malaysia ups palm oil exports, al-Shabab strikes in Somalia, split verdict on marital rape in India, journalist killed in West Bank
Hard Numbers: Malaysia ups palm oil exports, al-Shabab strikes in Somalia, split verdict on marital rape in India, journalist killed in West Bank
162: Indian women’s rights groups are reeling after a New Delhi court failed to deliver a verdict in a case that could have overturned a 162-year-old law permitting marital rape. The Indian Penal Code says sex "by a man with his own wife" does not constitute rape. The case will likely be appealed before the Supreme Court.
40: After Indonesia recently banned palm oil exports amid surging global commodity prices, Malaysia has stepped up its deliveries to try to fill the void. It ramped up deliveries by 40% in the first 10 days of May compared with the same period in April. Still, it won't be able to meet the demand left by Indonesia, which accounts for 60% of global palm oil exports.
4: At least four people were killed in a terror attack near the airport in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. Al-Shabab, a militant group that has wreaked havoc across the Horn of Africa in recent years, claimed responsibility for the blast, which occurred as candidates were heading to the airport just days before the country’s presidential election.
25: Shireen Abu Akleh, a prominent Palestinian-American journalist who has worked for Al Jazeera for 25 years, was shot and killed while covering an Israeli military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin. The network has blamed Israeli troops, but Israel’s PM Naftali Bennett said she was likely killed by Palestinian gunmen. Israel says it will investigate and hand over its findings to the Qatari government, which owns Al Jazeera.