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As the Arctic melts, geopolitics heats up
As climate change warms the planet, the Arctic Circle ice cap will continue to melt. Beyond the ecological implications, a melting Arctic will open up new opportunities for resource extraction, trade routes, and….military operations. Few nations are more keenly aware of this than the United States and its adversaries, Russia, China, and North Korea.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to talk about how the United States will ensure that its economic and geopolitical interests continue to be met as the Arctic melts. And the threat goes beyond Russia. “China's flexing its muscles in the Bering Strait in the Arctic,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer. “ That's changing as well. So I think as a result of that, you're going to see, I hope to see a different approach by Washington involving our armed forces in Alaska.
Such ramp-ups cannot come a moment too soon, Dunleavy says, since the United States is outmatched when it comes to its presence of the crucial icebreaker ships needed to navigate the arctic passages. “I think what's going to happen is you're probably going to see more discussions on increased navy activity in Alaska,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer, “as well as the need for more icebreakers to joint patrols with our Canadian friends to the East.”
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Resource-rich Alaska is crucial to the future of energy in America — Gov. Dunleavy
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy paints a picture of the state as a powerhouse of energy and resources, stressing, "We are an energy and economic giant, and we are the Arctic and Western Pacific Sovereign for the United States of America." Dunleavy highlights its proximity to an abundance of natural wealth—including the world’s largest gold mine and North America's largest graphite mine. "We still have billions of barrels of oil. We have over a hundred trillion cubic feet of gas that we're trying to market," Dunleavy emphasizes, positioning Alaska as crucial to America's energy future.
And, he adds, Alaska’s ability to mine these valuable resources is happening despite, rather than thanks to, the Biden administration and its penchant to view the state as "a large national park.” This, according to Dunleavy, hinders Alaska's ability to fully leverage its resources, stating, "Oftentimes we are not supported in our efforts to develop lands in Alaska that could produce minerals, that could produce more oil and gas, that could harvest our timber."
Despite these obstacles, Dunleavy remains optimistic, predicting that "the next 50 years will belong to Alaska" due to its vast resource base and strategic global position. He envisions Alaska playing a pivotal role in the global energy market, both in fossil fuels and renewables, provided that federal attitudes and policies evolve to support rather than hinder the state's ambition
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
Alaska is on the front lines of an increasingly hostile US-Russian relationship. With the Arctic Circle melting and shipping lanes opening, things could get ugly fast.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy. He is clear-eyed about the growing military importance of Alaska as tensions rise in the Arctic, especially with increased Russian and Chinese activity in the region. “Alaska is truly the operational fort for North America,” he tells Bremmer. Dunleavy also calls for more investment in military infrastructure, including icebreaker ships, to secure America's Arctic frontier. “We only have two [icebreakers] in the United States. Because of Alaska's position and what is happening now geopolitically and with a warming Arctic, Alaska should have a minimum of five icebreakers."
Dunleavy also frames Alaska as “an energy and economic giant" poised to lead in America’s energy future. He underscores Alaska’s vast natural resources, from oil and gas to rare earth minerals. “We have 49 of the world's 50 rare earth elements. The largest gold mine on the planet is up there. The list goes on and on.” He also highlights Alaska’s renewable energy potential, including geothermal, wind, and tidal power, framing the state as a key player in the global energy transition.
Dunleavy, a Republican, also criticizes his state’s relationship with the federal government, which he says often treats the state "like a large national park." He argues that Alaska’s resources are critical not just for the state but for the nation, especially as the world shifts towards greener technologies that rely on rare minerals. The governor also emphasizes the need for streamlined federal permitting processes to fully unlock Alaska's potential, both economically and environmentally.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
"The next 50 years belong to Alaska" — An interview with Gov. Mike Dunleavy
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to explore the state’s pivotal role in America’s energy, technology, and national security. Alaska sits at the heart of some of America's thorniest geopolitical challenges. Its renewable resources, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and freshwater make it a critical part of the country's energy and technology futures, while its strategic location near Russia and China underscores its geopolitical importance. No one understands better than Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who drills into Alaska's energy and economic potential and discusses US national security concerns within a melting Arctic on the GZERO World Podcast.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.A family with their belongings wade through rain waters following floods in Jamshoro, Pakistan.
What We’re Watching: Pakistan floods, Arctic diplomacy, Iran’s nuclear deal response
Pakistan’s floods get political
After an ongoing economic crisis, political tumult, and increased terror attacks, Pakistan is now facing its worst floods in a decade. Thirty million people —about 15% of the population — have been displaced, most of them in Pakistan’s poorest provinces. As of Sunday, the death toll had crossed 1,000. As inflation continues to soar, hitting 45% on essential items last week, and the government appeals for international support, ousted PM Imran Khan pinned the blame for mismanaging the calamity on Shehbaz Shafir, the current prime minister. Khan keeps pushing for immediate snap elections, but it’s unclear if Pakistan’s worst natural disaster in years will keep the government or displace it. So far, the country is on economic life support, with a $1.2 billion loan expected to be approved Monday by the IMF. But will it be enough to keep Sharif in play?
US diplomacy goes to the North Pole
The Biden administration plans to appoint the first US ambassador to the Arctic amid growing NATO jitters about partners "without limits" China and Russia stepping up their presence there. During a visit to Canada on Friday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that Russia's shortest path to someday attack North America would be through the Arctic Circle. In recent years, the Kremlin has built new bases there and upgraded Soviet-era facilities, presumably to test new weapons like hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, China now styles itself as a near-Arctic power and is investing billions of dollars to build Arctic energy and infrastructure projects — including the world's largest icebreaker fleet — along what Beijing calls the "Polar Silk Road.” As icecaps melt due to climate change, the region will be more accessible, opening up new navigation channels and vast energy and mineral resources. But that'll put the Russians and the Chinese too close for NATO comfort near the North Pole, which for Stoltenberg demands an entire rethink of the alliance's Arctic strategy.
Make-or-break week for Iran nuclear deal?
Iranian officials are now reviewing the US response to an EU-drafted text to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, with a response expected by the end of the week. Meanwhile, Israel's defense minister visited Washington last week in a last-ditch effort to voice its opposition to reviving the 2015 deal. US President Joe Biden, for his part, is walking a tightrope to ensure the Iranians sign on the dotted line while still trying to contain Tehran’s actions around the world. The Iranians want the Americans to get the UN nuclear watchdog to back off on inspections to verify Iran is not further enriching uranium to make an atomic bomb, something Washington is unlikely to agree to. Still, Iran's battered economy can hardly afford to continue under sanctions, and Biden would certainly like Iranian oil back on the market to bring down global crude prices — which have eased recently in part due to expectations that the deal will be signed in the near term.
OVER THE TOP: ARCTIC SHIPPING LANES
Last month, the Venta Maersk (pictured above) became the first international container ship to complete the journey from Asia to Europe through the Arctic Circle. Until now, this journey could be made only via the Indian Ocean and through the Suez Canal, or around the Cape of Good Hope and up Africa's west coast.
But an accelerated melting of the polar ice cap means that a stretch of Arctic waters known as the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has now become navigable for several months a year. The NSR has a lot going for it: the trip is 30-50 percent shorter than the traditional routes between Asia and Europe, and it has 100 percent fewer pirates.
The Venta, loaded with electronics and frozen food, left South Korea in August, made a stop in Vladivostok, sailed through the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, moved along Russia's north coast, and with the help of a nuclear icebreaker, passed into the Norwegian Sea. It docked in St. Petersburg last Friday.
As the ice melts further and the journey becomes more common, the balance of power in global trade could shift substantially. The biggest winner might well be the Kremlin. A sizable portion of the Northern Sea Route runs through Russia's territorial waters, allowing Moscow to set conditions for passage, grant and deny access, and impose duties along the route. The strategic and economic benefits are obvious.
More broadly, the melting ice cap will make it possible to extract vast quantities of the oil, gas, and minerals thought to lie beneath the Arctic seabed. That will only intensify the competition for territorial claims among Arctic powers—the United States, Russia, Canada, and the Scandinavians. Thus far, Russia has made the biggest claim by arguing that its continental shelf extends deep into the Arctic Circle. And making geopolitical matters more interesting, as we wrote back in April, China will want a piece of the action too.
For now, the need for accompanying icebreakers means costs are high, and the journey remains unpredictable and dangerous. One authoritative study says the route won't be economically viable for significant ship traffic until 2035. (Particularly in the world of long-term investment in transport, that's not as far off as it sounds. We're now closer to 2035 than to 2001.)