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A NASA satellite image from September 16, 2007 and released on September 21, 2007, shows Arctic summer sea ice. Arctic sea ice melted to its lowest level ever this week, shattering a record set in 2005 and continuing a trend spurred by human-caused global warming, scientists said on September 20, 2007.
Rising temps and tensions in the Arctic
As leaders convene in Reykjavik, Iceland, for the Arctic Circle Assembly, geopolitical tensions are rising as fast as the Arctic’s sea level.
Historically, Arctic diplomacy has been shielded from external matters. But melting sea ice is opening up new military, trade, and extraction opportunities up north, pitting NATO Arctic countries against China and Russia, which have been proactively showing dominance in the region.
China’s Arctic presence is focused on resource extraction and faster shipping routes to Europe. It has teamed up with Russia, which chairs the Arctic Coast Guard and has begun operating joint military vessels off the coast of Alaska.
Canada and the US have been criticized for underinvesting in Arctic security, but NATO’s presence in the region is strong. Finland recently joined NATO and Sweden is close behind, making seven of the eight Arctic countries NATO members.
Since invading Ukraine, Russia has been withdrawing from intergovernmental bodies in the Arctic, including the Nuclear Arctic Safety Program and the Barent Euro-Arctic Council. Representatives at this week's meeting are expected to decide the future of the most important Arctic institution, the Arctic Council. The US has pushed to reintegrate Russia into the forum, but other NATO members have been unwilling to include Russia in since its invasion.
Representatives from China will be in attendance, but Russia will be absent, raising practical questions about what Arctic forums can achieve without the largest geographical stakeholder.
Other items on the assembly’s agenda include environmental preservation, mineral extraction, and expanding food production as temperatures rise – eliminating traditional food sources but making agriculture more feasible.
Scientists ride their snowmobiles near Kronebreen glacier through the arctic landscape in Norway.
Norway takes helm of icy Arctic Council
On Thursday, Norway became the chair of the Arctic Council, the leading forum for intergovernmental cooperation in the region. The transition has been muted, but the stakes are high: It’s taking over from none other than Russia.
As the Arctic heats up as a geopolitical theater (China has called it one of the world’s “new strategic frontiers”), managing it well is top of mind for Arctic states like Canada and the US.
What is the Arctic Council? It was created in the 1990s to facilitate cooperation on issues like sustainable development, environmental preservation, and search and rescue, though notably not on security. The council is made up of the eight Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US), plus reps from the region’s Indigenous Peoples and observer states like China. Leadership rotates every two years, and Russia was halfway through its term when it invaded Ukraine last year.
Until the invasion, the Council was a solid example of post-Cold War cooperation.
Even after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, it remained a unique space for friends and adversaries alike to find common ground.
Not so these days. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the other Arctic nations froze their Council work with Moscow, leaving a third of the body’s 130 projects on hold.
Icing Russia out could compromise the Council’s viability. Over half of the Arctic’s coastline and almost half its population are Russian. Real progress in fighting climate change and managing a growing international interest in the region with only half the picture? Good luck.
Norway gets that. “Probably, the most important outcome of our time as chair will be that we make sure that the Arctic Council survives," Norway’s Senior Arctic Official Morten Høglund said.
Failure to advance a meaningful agenda for circumpolar affairs and sustain the council’s viability “would be a major blow to multilateral efforts to grapple with issues like climate change, which has an outsized impact on Indigenous peoples in the fast-warming Arctic region,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson.
Could Norway invite Russia back into the fold? Høglund has pledged to restart communication, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre recently said that “there may come a time to move forward again. And I would warn against … cutting Russia out of the map as if it is no longer there. It is.”
And don’t forget about China. Beijing says it hopes Norway can restore the council’s cooperative work and is vowing to “play a constructive role.”
As it took the helm on Thursday, Norway offered to host a council meeting in 2025. All members would be invited, which means Russia might soon come in from the cold.- Welcome to Antarctica: A conflict-free zone - GZERO Media ›
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Arctic Council Meltdown: Europe in 60 Seconds
Will the Arctic Council be able to agree on protection of that very sensitive environment up there?
Well, there's been a meeting of the Arctic Council in Rovaniemi in Finland. And for the first time it has failed to agree on a common declaration. And that is because the US refused any mention, any mention whatsoever, of climate change. That's a setback, no question about that, but let's hope that the participating states can agree on other measures to safeguard a better development of that very fragile part of our world.
How will President Macron and his party do in the European Parliamentary elections?
Well, looks somewhat more problematic if we look at the latest opinion polls. He has been having good momentum, but there has been more momentum for the nationalist forces in the last few weeks. We'll just have to wait and see.