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Danger alert after Hamas leader assassinated in Iran
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take on the assassination of Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran while he was attending the inauguration of the new Iranian leader, Pezeshkian. Almost certainly carried out by the Israelis. This is a big attack. It's an enormous success for the Israeli Defense Forces. It is potentially a very significant escalation in the conflict across the Middle East with a so-called Iran-led Axis of Resistance, of which Hamas, of course, is a core part. Also shows the weakness of the United States in its lack of influence over the Israeli government, over the Israeli military. So an awful lot of moving parts here.
Let's first talk about what we know. This is an enormous embarrassment. It is a security failure. It is an intelligence failure for the Iranian government. The idea that the leader, the political leader of Hamas who was there invited by the Iranian government in a secure military compound for the inauguration taken out and killed by the Israelis, enormously embarrassing. The Supreme leader has already said that there will be significant retaliation. The Iranian permanent mission in the UN said special operations in kind, which implies not military targets, but perhaps civilian government targets in Israel. This clearly has the potential to spill over into broader conflict between Iran and Israel. The one thing that would really have a regional impact, a global economic impact despite the prices of oil and also likely draw the Americans directly in. I wouldn't say that this is more likely than not to happen, but it is more likely than at any point that we've seen in the war thus far. That probably includes even when we had the attack on the Iranian leader in Syria and Damascus by the Israelis and the Iranian response with drones and missiles. That's the first point, is that now we need to watch very carefully for when and what that Iranian escalation is likely to be, and does it end there or do the Israelis continue in a spiraling tit-for-tat? Iran, of course, is not just a non-state sort of member of the Axis. It doesn't just engage in terrorism, though they fund it widely across the region and more broadly, this is a country that is close to having nuclear weapons capability. They have a very large military, they have a very significant presence across the region. They now have established diplomatic relations with most of the states across the region. Anything that they do that is escalatory has global ramification, so that's the first point.
Secondly, the fact that this is the death of the Hamas political leader. On the one hand, you now have a very significant number of leaders, military and political of Hamas that have been eliminated by Israel. So if the intention is to take out Hamas from Gaza and their ability to have sort of their existing leadership, those that ordered the terrorist attacks on October 7th, if that is the military intention of Israel, they are closer to being finished with the war in Gaza than they have been before. If the point is you have to remove Hamas as an idea, Hamas as an organization that has political support and people that are willing to take up arms to support them there, Israel is much farther than they were on October 7th, and that's a serious problem because of course, the desire of average Palestinians to avenge this strike is going up. Palestinians, not just in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and refugees in Jordan, and more broadly across the region. So likelihood that we see expanded terrorism, expanded radicalism on the back of this is also going up.
The United States, as I mentioned, was not aware, had no coordination with, no intelligence sharing with Israel in the run-up to this attack. Let's keep in mind the US did everything they could to defend Israel when the Iranians were sending drones and missiles against them. Israel is the closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. It gets more military support, more economic support and aid from the US every year than any other country, not just in the Middle East, but in the world, and yet Biden's ability, Kamala Harris's ability, Secretary of State Blinken's ability, the US Administration's ability to influence Israeli outcomes in terms of a negotiated settlement, a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, nature and scope of military operations has been exceptionally limited. This has not been coordinated military operations between the US and Israel. The Americans have been providing the arms, they've been providing the money, and the Israelis have been doing what they want, and that is a vulnerability. It's a big vulnerability for Kamala Harris, probably her most significant vulnerability when we look at the upcoming elections. Now, it is true that Harris is more supportive of the Palestinians than Biden. She's more focused on a two-state solution. She's more focused on trying to prevent further humanitarian disaster on the ground in Gaza than Biden has been. But her making that distinction while she is serving as Vice President for President Biden is exceptionally hard, and so again, I think this is going to be a problem. She's going to have to answer more questions about this on the campaign trail. She's not going to have very good answers, certainly won't have good answers as long as she's not president and Biden's not planning on stepping down.
It's also a problem because Biden's ability, given his own age, his frailty to make strong statements, to be out there every day to be driving US foreign policy in this crisis is open to question. I think there are a lot of people, not just Republicans that are going to raise questions if God forbid this escalates and looks like it is turning into a war between Israel and Iran. Is Biden capable of leading the country in a situation of true emergency? And I think there are a lot of good reasons to say the answer to that is no. And I mean, if it were up to me, I'd say that he actually does need to step down because that's important, but I also think it's incredibly unlikely that's going to happen, and that's the reality that we face.
More broadly, I don't think this is going to break the Abraham Accords. I think even though the Arab states are quite angry about the fact that this has happened, I don't see, for example, the Emiratis, the Bahrainis, others from maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia continues to want to do a lot with Israel on the national security side, but you will not see them opening diplomatic relations until this present Israeli government is gone.
I also didn't even mention the fact that, of course, there was also strikes on Beirut, the Lebanese capitol just a day ago, that assassinated a significant military leader of Hezbollah. Nominally ultimately responsible for the rocket strikes that killed some 11 Israeli citizens in the occupied territory of the Golan. That on the one hand, definitely shows that Israel has exceptional intelligence and the ability to take these leaders out in a way that they have not for Hamas military leadership in Gaza. If you are Hezbollah and you're thinking about opening a broader war against Israel, that kind of reality quick response is going to give you pause.
The fact that the Israelis said that's it, that is all they're doing in response to those rocket attacks, I think makes it more likely that the Lebanon front is stable, and certainly the oil markets have reflected that. That's very different than what we are seeing, what we are likely to see as a result of this assassination in the Iranian capital. So an awful lot going on. A very dangerous environment, a political cycle that isn't opportune to responding to it, and lots more to talk about over the coming days and weeks I'm sure.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
The immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan in Washington, D.C., on March 30, 1981.
Trump, Reagan, Roosevelt: Does surviving an assassin’s bullet help at the polls?
Just moments after being grazed in the ear by a bullet at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, Donald Trump was on his feet again, blood streaming down the side of his face, pumping his fist and urging his supporters to “fight!”
The photo of that moment is already an icon of our time. And experts say that surviving the assassination attempt in such a dramatic fashion can only help Trump in the election, by drawing a stark contrast with the visibly aging Joe Biden and complicating the Democrats’ case that Trumphimself is a unique threat to American democracy.
But Trump isn’t the first (sitting or former) US president to survive being struck by an assassin’s bullet. There have been two other notable examples in history. Did cheating death on the job help them politically?
In March 1981, President Ronald Reaganwas shot by John Hinckley Jr. after leaving a speech in Washington, DC. A policeman, a Secret Service agent, and White House Press Secretary James Brady were also struck. Reagan survived and was back on the job within two weeks. Brady was confined to a wheelchair for the rest of his life.
Hinckley’s motive wasn’t, in fact, ideological. He was mentally ill and simply wanted to catch the attention of famous actress Jodie Foster. But did the drama help or hurt Reagan politically?
His approval ratings did surge by eight points to nearly 70% in the aftermath of the shooting. But economic gloom would pull them down by more than 40 points later in the year. Still, he had more than three full years to bounce back ahead of the 1984 election, which he won in a landslide.
There was, however, one longer-lasting impact of Hinckley’s plot. Brady and his wife dedicated their lives to gun control advocacy, at a time when the Second Amendment wasn’t nearly as partisan as it is today. Their efforts resulted in the 1994 Brady Bill, the first federal measure requiring background checks for handgun purchases.
Seventy years before Reagan walked away from his encounter with an assassin’s bullet, former President Teddy Roosevelt was shot in the chest while campaigning for an unprecedented third term in the 1912 election.
A delusional German immigrant named John Schrank had pulled the trigger, he said, to avenge the ghost of former President William McKinley, whose own assassination had paved the way for Roosevelt, McKinley’s veep, to first take the top job 10 years earlier.
The most famous part of the story, of course, is that the bullet was slowed down by Roosevelt’s eyeglasses case and a copy of his speech, which he continued to give.
“I don't know whether you fully understand that I have just been shot,” he said to the stunned crowd, “but it takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose!”
Still, the episode was no political windfall for Roosevelt. Although he managed to win more votes than sitting president William Howard Taft – their rivalry had split the Republican Party in two – they were both bested by the Democrats’ Woodrow Wilson.
Will Trump be better able to parlay a failed assassination into a successful reelection? Unlike Reagan, he faces voters in less than four months, meaning that any sympathy bump he gets could last long enough to help on Election Day. And unlike Roosevelt, he has his entire party behind him -- against an opponent whose own candidacy remains in doubt.
But much will depend on what we learn about the motivations of the shooter. And of course, four months is still an eternity in today’s news cycle. Before long, the “fight!” that Trump is in could still look very different.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky participate in the Conference of Ambassadors of Ukraine, in Kyiv President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky participate in the Conference of Ambassadors of Ukraine, in Kyiv on December 23, 2022.
Hard Numbers: Zelensky targeted, Putin inaugurated, Greene satiated, Neom downgraded
2: Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday they had detained two colonels in the State Guard, the unit responsible for protecting Kyiv’s most important officials, who were allegedly plotting to kill President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his government. The suspects were allegedly working for the Russian Federal Security Service and may have planned to carry out the assassination to coincide with President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration.
5: Speaking of, Putin was inaugurated for his fifth term as president of Russia on Tuesday in a glittering ceremony at the Kremlin. Putin has led Russia since 1999, with a brief stint as prime minister while his puppet Dmitri Medvedev helped change the constitution to make Putin president again. His new term ends in 2030, but his reign likely won’t.
2: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) met with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) two days in a row on Tuesday before announcing she would back off on her threat to unseat him. Johnson has now survived the wrath of the far-right despite needing to cooperate with Democrats to pass bills, a move that doomed his predecessor.
1.5: Saudi Arabia has downscaled the first segment of its Neom project, the “line city” that is envisioned to stretch 105 miles through the Saudi desert, from 10 to just 1.5 miles by 2030 amid delays and cost overruns. With around $100 billion of the original $500 billion cost projection already spent, some experts estimate that Riyadh may end up spending $2 trillion if it wants to complete this megaproject.FILE PHOTO: Karan Brar, Kamalpreet Singh and Karanpreet Singh, the three individuals charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder in relation to the murder in Canada of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023, are seen in a combination of undated photographs released by the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team (IHIT).
Canada arrests Nijjar murder suspects
Canada's arrest on Friday of three Indian nationals linked to the assassination of Sikh-Canadian activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar has escalated diplomatic tensions between Ottawa and New Delhi. On Friday, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police charged the trio with first-degree murder and conspiracy, adding that they were investigating whether the suspects had links to the Indian government.
India has called the allegations of government involvement in the Nijjar murder “absurd” and a “political compulsion in Canada to blame India,” in the words of Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The arrests fall in the middle of the Indian general election in which President Narendra Modiis expected to win a third term.
News of the arrests came the same day that the Canadian government receiveda report on foreign interference in its 2019 and 2021 federal elections, includingIndia's alleged interference in Sikh diaspora affairs. The government has announced legislation to combat such intrusions, including the creation of a foreign agents registry, a measure already in place in Britain and Australia. We’re watching whether this will go ahead in time for Canada’s elections expected next year, and how the ongoing tension between Ottawa and New Delhi plays in Washington, which is doing its best to buddy up to India.The Graphic Truth: Indians hold 40% of Canadian student visas
The fallout from allegations that India was behind the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar has thrown Indo-Canadian relations into the lurch. Each side has expelled a diplomat from the other, and India’s Embassy in Canada stopped processing visas – a serious diplomatic gesture, no doubt, but the material impacts are likely to be small. Only around 80,000 Canadians visited India in 2021 out of more than 1.5 million foreign tourists.
But if Canada responds in kind, it will be a very different story. Indian students represent a staggering 40% of the 807,000 foreign student visa holders in Canada, more than every other nationality combined save China. The number of Indians studying in the Great White North skyrocketed from just 2,210 in 2000 to 171,505 in 2018 — also the year Indian students first outnumbered Chinese students. Their population has since nearly doubled, and Indian students now represent approximately 0.8% of the entire population of Canada.
Here’s the twist: Even before the row over Nijjar’s murder, Canada was seriously considering capping student visas. The country is in the midst of a severe housing shortage, and efforts to alleviate the situation are falling short. The province of Ontario needs to build around 150,000 new houses every year for the next several years to rectify the situation — and they’re managing around 40,000. Capping the number of foreign students competing for limited housing might be politically expedient, but it would be a devastating blow to the Canadian universities that depend upon international tuition rates.
Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez speaks during a presidential election night event, in Quito, Ecuador, on Aug. 20, 2023.
González leads, but a runoff looms in Ecuador
After an election marred by a high level of violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavencio, Ecuadorian voters have set the stage for a runoff between left-wing candidate Luisa González and political outsider Daniel Noboa, the scion of a major banana business. With 75% of the votes tallied, González leads Noboa 33% to 24%.
To win, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or 40% support with a 10-point lead over their closest rival.
Should González win the runoff, the country risks remaining under the influence of disgraced former President Rafael Correa, whom González pledged to retain as an advisor. Since 2017, Correa has lived abroad in Belgium, allowing him to escape his 2020 prison sentence for corruption.
Villavicencio, a former journalist, had harshly criticized Correa and was credited with contributing to his conviction. Known for brazenly calling out corruption, organized crime, and drug traffickers, Villavicencio – who was not leading the pack when he was assassinated – was killed in a hail of bullets after a rally on Aug. 9. Six Colombian nationals have been arrested in connection with his murder.
Other politicians have also been murdered in recent months, but violence has not been limited to politics: Ecuador saw 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, a nearly 75% jump on the number of murders reported in the first half of 2022. That year ended with the highest number of violent deaths in Ecuador’s history, 4,600, double the total of the previous year – with the uptick blamed on drug trafficking and corruption.
On Sunday, some 100,000 police were dispatched to keep order on election day. A runoff vote will now be held in October. Whoever wins will face the challenge not only of reducing violence but restoring voter confidence in a shaken populace.
Japan’s history of political assassinations
The shocking assassination a week ago of former Prime Minister Shinzo has rattled Japan, where such acts of political violence are now extremely rare — but were once common.
In 1932, the head of government was killed by army cadets in an attempted coup. In 1960, Abe's own grandfather, also then-PM, survived a knife attack. Japan's last high-profile assassination occurred that same year, when a socialist politician was stabbed to death on national television.
We don't know yet how Abe's death will impact Japanese politics moving forward, but his party swept the vote in an election held three days later. An outpouring of sympathy for the former PM probably made all the difference.
The resounding victory might help the ruling achieve some of Abe's unfulfilled dreams when he was in office.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
Iran nuclear scientist's body taken to Muslim shrine
TEHERAN (AFP) - The body of Iran's assassinated top nuclear scientist has been taken to the first of several revered Shiite Muslim shrines ahead of his burial set for Monday (Nov 30), state media reported.