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Romney: Sloppy classified docs "a danger"
These days, it seems like every government official—and their mother—has some classified documents stored away at the family beach house. Utah Senator Mitt Romney, however, assures Ian Bremmer that he hasn’t purloined any compromised files. “I must admit that the sloppiness, the carelessness that we've seen from this president and from the prior president is really disturbing” Romney tells Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World, “and it does not look good on them or on our country, and is frankly, of a danger to our national security.”
Watch the GZERO World episode: Sen. Mitt Romney on DC dysfunction, Russian attacks, and banning TikTok
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- What We're Watching: Biden's secret papers, Ukrainians in Oklahoma, Tigrayan demobilization ›
- Mitt Romney will be defined by opposing Trump - GZERO Media ›
Biden's "mini" document scandal could hurt his position with Dems
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
What are the implications of the unfolding Biden document scandal?
Revelations that President Biden mishandled classified documents as a senator and vice president are the first major scandal of what has really been an otherwise pretty squeaky-clean administration. FBI officials have uncovered caches of documents in Biden's Delaware home and at his think tank, the Penn Biden Center. Media outlets like CNN have kept the story in the headline for weeks, even sending a helicopter to circle his house during an FBI search, adding to the drama.
The most immediate impact of these revelations is to undermine the criticism that Biden levied against former President Trump for his own document scandal, even though Trump had squirreled away a far larger number of sensitive documents and blocked federal investigators from getting access to them. Although the DOJ has appointed special counsels to review both cases, it is very unlikely that either president will be charged with document mishandling, especially now that it has come out that former vice president, Mike Pence, had his own stash of classified documents stored at an insecure location at his home.
And it's probably only a matter of time before we start hearing about this phenomenon from other former officials. After all, the US government has a famous habit of over-classifying sensitive materials, and we don't know if these records are nuclear codes or the results of Biden's cholesterol tests. While Trump could still face charges of obstruction of justice, Biden probably has the most to lose here, as the mini scandal could ultimately weaken his position within the Democratic Party. Though Biden is unlikely to face a serious primary challenger if he chooses to run, many Democrats have publicly and privately expressed concern about his advanced age. And any negative coverage could create an opening for opportunistic Democrats to increase the pressure on him to step aside for a younger generation.
Regardless, the House Republican investigation into the document mishandling will be lengthy and wide-ranging, including looking at the number of documents, who had access to them, the timeline of the revelations, and whether Biden created a national security threat through his treatment of the documents. This investigation will be tied up in other investigations like the one into Biden's ne'er-do-well son, Hunter, who lived in the house where the documents were found, or into Hunter's business connections to China, which Republicans allege may have affected US policy.
Although the document investigations will have many chapters, Biden's base is unlikely to be drawn in and many Democrats will see it as a political stunt, even if the sustained negative attention ultimately diminishes his reputation in the eyes of the public.
- Hard Numbers: Pence documents, UK loses refugee kids, Yellen callin’ on Beijing, Gates vs. burps ›
- What We're Watching: Biden's secret papers, Ukrainians in Oklahoma, Tigrayan demobilization ›
- Trump Mar-a-Lago affidavit: who accessed top secret documents? ›
- Biden shifting to center ahead of 2024 re-election bid - GZERO Media ›
What We're Watching: Catalan separatist off the hook, Biden's special counsel, Oz-PNG deal, Czech election, nukes for South Korea?
Spanish justice gives up on Catalan fugitive
After trying for more than five years to bring fugitive ex-Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to trial for sedition, on Thursday a Spanish judge threw in the towel and dropped the charge. Why? The left-wing government of PM Pedro Sánchez has watered down the crime of sedition so much that it no longer covers what Puigdemont did in Oct. 2017: declare Catalonia an independent republic before skipping town when he was about to get arrested. And why did Sánchez tweak the law? Because he needs the votes of Catalan separatist parties in the national parliament to stay in power (which also explains why he pardoned the other politicians who tried to secede along with Puigdemont.) The judge's decision has big political implications in an election year. On the one hand, it's vindication for the Catalan independence movement, which has been losing steam since its failed secession bid. But on the other, it's a poison pill for Sánchez, whom the the Spanish right has long accused of pandering to Catalan separatists. The PM will get a sense of what Spanish voters think of his Catalonia policy in local and regional elections in late May, a dress rehearsal for a general vote in December.
Biden gets a special counsel, too
US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday appointed a special counsel to lead the investigation into the discovery of two batches of classified files allegedly taken by President Joe Biden when he was VP. The White House has promised full cooperation. Garland has followed his playbook from a similar probe involving former President Donald Trump, who stashed 300+ classified files from the White House at his Mar-a-Lago pad and gave the Feds a hard time about it. While Garland’s move is unsurprising, the appointment of the special counsel can hurt Biden in two ways. First, it gives Republicans fodder to investigate the president in the House, regardless of Trump's own mishandling of sensitive government information. Second — and perhaps more importantly — it might mess with the Justice Department's own case against Trump and weaken the political argument to prosecute him as a presidential candidate in 2024. Even if the probe ends up not recommending charges for Biden, expect it to drag on for months and for the GOP to make a big stink about the whole thing. On another note, seriously, what's up with US presidents/veeps and classified files? Is it so hard to leave office without taking your past homework with you? Let us know what you think.
Oz & PNG working on security agreement
It's an open market for security pacts in the Pacific. Nine months after China clinched a controversial deal with the Solomon Islands, Australia is negotiating its own with Papua New Guinea and expecting to sign a security pact by June. This comes at a time when the US and its allies in the region are worried about Beijing's growing clout in a part of the world the West has long neglected. The leaders of the two countries promised transparency to contrast with China's secrecy, but so far the Aussies are keeping the details as much under wraps as the Chinese did. Regardless, the talks are quite a milestone for Australia-PNG relations given the messy legacy of Canberra's colonial rule. What's more, striking a deal would be a big win for Australia in its race to counter China because PNG has a lot of natural resources — fossil fuels, minerals, you name it — that Beijing is eager to get its hands on. We'll keep an eye on this in case the deal has any effect on Australia-China ties, now enjoying a warm-ish spell after years of frostiness.
Czech elections: round one, fight!
Czechs vote this weekend in the first round of a presidential election featuring three very distinct frontrunners. Leading the polls is Petr Pavel (“Peter Paul”!), a retired general and former top NATO official who’s running as a safe, Europhile pair of hands and a strong supporter of Ukraine. Just behind him is Andrej Babiš, a Eurosceptic populist agriculture tycoon who was prime minister from 2017-2021. Babiš has been dogged by allegations of corruption, though he was cleared this week by a Czech court. His ANO party, popular with older and more rural voters, remains the largest in parliament. Lastly, economics professor Danuše Nerudová, a progressive on social issues, has highlighted the importance of electing her as the country’s first female president. Czech presidents have limited powers, but they play a role in forming governments and represent the country abroad. Outgoing President Miloš Zeman, an ally of Babiš, fomented controversy throughout his 10 years in power, not least because of his overt sympathies for Russia. No one is expected to win outright in the first round — a runoff will be held in late January.
Wait, why did “Czechoslovakia” split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia 30 years ago? Read our recent explainer here.
South Korea mulls nuclear weapons ... again!
Nuclear rhetoric is heating up again on the Korean Peninsula, but this time the push is coming from South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol says that if the threat from the North continues, Seoul could develop its own nukes, or push the US to deploy them. Washington pulled its tactical nukes from South Korea in the 1990s, and it is unlikely to redeploy them. But Yoon isn’t coming out of left field. He has serious public support for developing nukes, and he’s not the first South Korean leader to have such ambitions. But considering the last time a South Korean leader proposed nuclear proliferation was in the 1970s, Yoon is the first one in decades to do so. He was elected last year with a mandate for a tough stance against Pyongyang, which has been amping up its missile tests and even flying drones into the South. Analysts say it’s unlikely that Yoon will actually go down the nuclear route. It’s more likely this stance could trigger China to convince its friends in the North to tone down the aggression, while also possibly push the US to extend its deterrence umbrella to the South.