Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Biden is out of the presidential race, and it looks like Kamala Harris will replace him. The big question: How would she do against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden's out.
An unprecedented development is that the likely nominee for one of the two major parties has dropped out of the race with only a month to go before the Democratic conventions. The big question is who's going to replace him? And the obvious answer is Kamala Harris.
She's already picked up the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. President Obama put out a statement saying that he would support whoever the nominee is and is looking forward to a convention to work this out, but that's probably just an indication that he wants this to look competitive. Harris herself put out a statement saying she's looking forward to earning the trust of everybody in the Democratic Party. But you also have luminaries like Jim Clyburn who are already endorsing Harris, and you're unlikely to see competitors like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer appear on the stage anytime soon. So Harris is probably going to replace Biden.
How does she do against Donald Trump?
Well, that's the big wild card in this election, her favorability is basically where Joe Biden's was in the high 30s, which is a bad place to be if you're going to get elected, but Donald Trump isn't that popular himself. Harris also faces the baggage of being the successor to an incumbent running for that incumbent seat. And unpopular incumbents tend not to do a great job passing on their seat to their successor. Harris hasn't really done anything to distinguish herself in four years of running her own presidential campaign or serving as vice president. She's kind of been relegated to a D-list of policy issues that she hasn't done much to effect, and the Democratic Party has a lot of other people who could probably be more competitive if they had time to run a primary process, but they don't. Harris does bring new energy to the campaign and has the ability to unite the Democratic Party behind her. However, Trump just does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration.
Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics during this wild election year. Thanks.
Stelter: It's clear the Democratic party elites are not with Biden
The rats are abandoning the ship, as the saying goes. In this case, the Democratic leadership are the ones fleeing, and the ship they're abandoning is President Biden. After the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump, which thrust the country into one of the most tumultuous political weeks in recent memory, chatter is getting louder again within the Democratic Party for Biden to step down.
In a wide-ranging interview for the latest episode of GZERO World, media journalist, and former CNN show host Brian Stelter joins Vanderbilt political historian Nicole Hemmer on a panel with Ian Bremmer to take stock of the week that was and to chart the way forward for the Democratic Party. But there's no getting around the optics. Just as the GOP was displaying a tight-knit sense of unity at the RNC convention in Milwaukee, the Democrats were in disarray. Stelter says that when it comes to Joe Biden's future, the writing is on the wall.
"It's been drip, drip, drip, drip, drip for the better part of a month now. Through reporting, through analysis, through polling, through donor statements, and probably most importantly from the statements of elected officials, it is clear the Democratic Party elites are not with Biden. And I don't see that tide turning."
But even if every senator, official, and elder statesperson in the Democratic elite urges President Biden to get out of the race, it's up to the man himself to make that decision. And as he recovers in isolation from COVID, there's not indication yet that Biden's any closer than he was weeks ago, after his disastrous debate performance, to passing the torch. In the meantime, the Dems will wait and worry, and the only thing they'll be passing are the Tums.
Look for the full interview with Brian Stelter and Nicole Hemmer on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television soon (check local listings.)
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
U.S. President Joe Biden removes his face mask prior to receiving his coronavirus disease (COVID-19) booster vaccination in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building's South Court Auditorium at the White House in Washington, U.S., September 27, 2021.
Is Biden ready to call it quits?
There are growing signs that President Joe Biden is opening up to the idea of quitting the 2024 race.
At the very least, he’s reportedly willing to hear people make the case for why he should drop out, and top Democrats privately believe Biden could step aside as early as this weekend.
Biden’s support is collapsing. Since the president’s disastrous debate performance, several prominent Democrats have questioned the viability of Biden’s campaign or publicly called on him to quit — with Reps. Adam Schiff of California and Jamie Raskin of Maryland the latest examples.
Reporting in recent days suggests that multiple leading Democrats have also privately warned Biden that he’s hurting the party’s chances and urged him to step aside, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Former President Barack Obama, who remains highly influential in the party, is reportedly worried Biden can’t win.
Biden has COVID at the moment — his diagnosis was announced late Wednesday — and is isolating in his Delaware home. We’ll be watching to see if the president ultimately buckles under the pressure, or if he’ll remain defiant in the face of the growing calls for him to exit the race. Meanwhile, the DNC rules committee is set to meet on Friday to discuss a plan to lock in Biden’s nomination early — before the convention next month.
Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?
What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.
“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”
Despite concerns from Democratic voters about Biden’s stamina and cognitive abilities, Sikorski says that at a recent summit, he found Biden “focused, strategic, and actually quite amusing.” He also notes that the Polish government has good relations with both candidates and disputes the idea that a second Trump term would limit further US aid to Ukraine. He concedes that Donald Trump was right on many issues, like the necessity of all NATO members to meet requirements for defense spending. Ultimately, Trump responds to strength and power, and accepting defeat or a settlement on Putin’s terms in Ukraine may not align with the image he wants to project on the global stage.
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden ›
- Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland ›
- Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- US election security and the threats of foreign interference: CISA Director Jen Easterly discusses - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit
The White House has a long, storied tradition of hiding the medical issues of the president from the American public. Ronald Reagan’s administration hid signs of his dementia; FDR hid his paralysis for years; Woodrow Wilson spent his last year and a half as president debilitated by a stroke that left him blind in one eye while his wife worked as a “shadow president.”
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer explains why allies worry about the growing concerns around President Biden’s health, fitness for office, and stamina to lead the country for another four years. While there’s no evidence Biden is suffering from a distinct illness like Wilson or FDR, his disastrous debate performance last month made many question his ability to lead the country and the world for a second term.
Trump is now leading Biden in most major polls, but European allies overwhelmingly prefer the old-school, post-WWII institutionalist world order the current administration represents. Trump’s isolationist, “America First” worldview is skeptical of treaties and alliances, which could seriously jeopardize future military assistance to Ukraine, whose fate may very well hinge on the US presidential election.
Watch more on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, in which Poland's Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski discusses the future of NATO under a Biden or Donald Trump presidency, Ukraine's chances against Russia, and Viktor Orbán's rogue moves.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- NATO has a Trump problem ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
- Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways ›
- At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM - GZERO Media ›
- Why Trump really wanted JD Vance as running mate - GZERO Media ›
U.S. President Joe Biden holds a press conference during NATO's 75th anniversary summit, in Washington, U.S., July 11, 2024.
Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways
Joe Biden’s “big boy” press conference at the end of Thursday’s NATO summit was a high-stakes mixed bag.
The president, facing growing calls to drop his reelection bid over concerns about his age and poor polling, made a few social media-friendly gaffes (he called Kamala Harris his “Vice President Trump” after earlier introducing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “Putin”) but otherwise gave reasonably coherent answers to a range of domestic and foreign policy questions.
Crucially, he insisted repeatedly he would stay in the race, beat Donald Trump, and “finish the job” — but also left open a very thin sliver of possibility that he could step down if his staff showed him that winning was impossible. But “no poll shows that,” he said, contradicting several recent studies.
In all, the performance may dispel some of the gravest concerns about his neurological condition but will likely do little to assuage broader doubts about whether Biden can in fact defeat Trump in November or serve as president until 2028.
Expect further prominent Democrats to call for Biden to step down in the coming days. But the earliest moment at which he would signal any change in his thinking would probably be next week, when an announcement would perfectly upstage Trump’s coronation at the Republican National Convention.
U.S. President Joe Biden gestures, as he and Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda and Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama attend NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024.
Will he stay or will he go? The Biden-shaped elephant at NATO
While foreign allies have been respectfully circumspect on the subject during this week’s NATO summit in Washington, President Joe Biden has seen members of his own party increasingly express their doubts about his continued leadership. On Wednesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi implied doubt by saying he had a “decision” to make — and George Clooney, a major fundraiser, wrote an op-ed arguing Biden should step aside.
The president has been on a blitz since his performance at the first debate deeply undermined voter confidence in him. After appearing weak and at times confused during his faceoff with Donald Trump, Biden has attempted to change impressions with more energetic rallies and interviews, as well as public statements and letters indicating he is committed to remaining the Democratic nominee. It hasn’t paid off: A steady stream of increasingly senior Democrats have questioned him publicly, including eight members of the House of Representatives, and Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut. Behind the scenes, there is even more discontent: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is reportedly going to relay privately expressed concerns from his caucus — particularly members in battleground states — to the White House.
Late Wednesday, Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont went a step further than his colleagues: He publicly called on Biden to end his presidential campaign. “For the good of the country,” he wrote in an op-ed for the Washington Post, “I’m calling on President Biden to withdraw from the race.”
And that’s to say nothing of overseas concerns. NATO allies (with the likely exception of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán) are hardly eager to see Trump return given bad memories of his antipathy toward the alliance and fondness for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden hopes to reassure them, as well as his domestic critics, with a solo press conference from the summit on Thursday. We’ll be watching to see how he performs and whether it can ease the pressure.
Senator Mark Kelly on President Biden's future in the 2024 race and fitness for office
Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill are falling in line behind President Biden, despite mounting calls from voters and even some Congressional Democrats to step aside in the US presidential race after his disastrous debate performance last month. With the stakes of the 2024 elections so high, Democrats are framing the race as a choice between stability and sensible governance in a potential second Biden administration versus chaos and threats to democracy if Trump were reelected.
Ian Bremmer sat down with Sen. Mark Kelly for an upcoming episode of GZERO World and asked about the future of President Biden's candidacy and whether he's confident Biden has the stamina and ability to lead the country for another four years. Kelly, who was elected the same year as Biden and Kamala Harris, says the administration's accomplishments speak for themselves and the president has "made it clear he's going all the way to November."
"My expectation is we're going to elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. To go back to the Donald Trump administration would be a huge mistake," Kelly insisted. "When you consider how destructive Trump would be to this country, I think it's an easy choice for every American voter to make."
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Biden vs. Trump redux: what we know so far ›
- Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden ›
- Stelter: It's clear the Democratic party elites are not with Biden - GZERO Media ›
- Extremists vs. moderates: The real divide in US politics - GZERO Media ›