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With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Biden is out of the presidential race, and it looks like Kamala Harris will replace him. The big question: How would she do against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden's out.
An unprecedented development is that the likely nominee for one of the two major parties has dropped out of the race with only a month to go before the Democratic conventions. The big question is who's going to replace him? And the obvious answer is Kamala Harris.
She's already picked up the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. President Obama put out a statement saying that he would support whoever the nominee is and is looking forward to a convention to work this out, but that's probably just an indication that he wants this to look competitive. Harris herself put out a statement saying she's looking forward to earning the trust of everybody in the Democratic Party. But you also have luminaries like Jim Clyburn who are already endorsing Harris, and you're unlikely to see competitors like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer appear on the stage anytime soon. So Harris is probably going to replace Biden.
How does she do against Donald Trump?
Well, that's the big wild card in this election, her favorability is basically where Joe Biden's was in the high 30s, which is a bad place to be if you're going to get elected, but Donald Trump isn't that popular himself. Harris also faces the baggage of being the successor to an incumbent running for that incumbent seat. And unpopular incumbents tend not to do a great job passing on their seat to their successor. Harris hasn't really done anything to distinguish herself in four years of running her own presidential campaign or serving as vice president. She's kind of been relegated to a D-list of policy issues that she hasn't done much to effect, and the Democratic Party has a lot of other people who could probably be more competitive if they had time to run a primary process, but they don't. Harris does bring new energy to the campaign and has the ability to unite the Democratic Party behind her. However, Trump just does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration.
Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics during this wild election year. Thanks.
President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House upon his return to Washington, DC from Delaware on July 25, 2021.
Biden drops out of 2024 presidential race
President Joe Biden on Sunday announced he is standing down and will no longer seek reelection in 2024.
Biden, 81, made the extraordinary decision following weeks of speculation over concerns about his age and capacity to do the job following his disastrous debate performance in late June.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden said in a statement.
“I will speak to the nation later this week in more detail about my decision,” Biden added.
Shortly after he announced that he was quitting the race, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
“My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” Biden said.
The president’s decision to step back reflects deep divisions among Democrats and came after a number of Democratic lawmakers urged Biden to drop out, both publicly and privately. Despite being heavily critical of Biden on issues such as the war in Gaza, progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stood by him as centrist Democrats like Rep. Nancy Pelosi pushed Biden to quit the race.
It’s unclear precisely who the Democratic presidential nominee will be now, though Biden's endorsement of Harris makes her the frontrunner.
By dropping out, Biden opened the door for the Democratic Party to gather behind another candidate and for the delegates pledged to him to vote as they want. But if Democrats do not coalesce behind a particular candidate before the convention in August, it could pave the way for an open convention in which prospective nominees would vie for support from delegates. This would be messy and hasn’t happened since 1968.
A lot is now up in the air, and this is a risky gamble for the Democratic Party as it fights to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning a second term – particularly as he seems to be gaining momentum following the assassination attempt a little over a week ago.