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Biden steps aside
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take on the back of a staggering announcement that President Biden is no longer standing for reelection. No one thought that President Biden should have stood for reelection after he won the first time. Certainly, nobody believed that he was going to be able to serve a full four years of a second term.
That was becoming increasingly obvious to Biden himself, because he saw what rank and file members of the Democratic Party were saying, how they were pulling. The internal polls that the White House has been getting over the last 48 hours were devastating for Biden, not just a loss, but a landslide that would have led to the Democrats getting wiped out in the House and Senate as well, would probably lead to the Republicans ending the filibuster. Biden ultimately a lot later than a lot of people wanted, but nonetheless ultimately standing down, standing aside, strongly endorsing Kamala Harris, his vice president, for the presidential nomination, and to defeat Trump come November. It is certainly a very long way to go. People were saying it's late. We have 107 days to go left in this election.
That's an eternity in US politics. It is longer than most elections in democracy actually occur for the entire campaign. And so, I mean, if you look at that, look at just how much might happen in a race where Trump and Biden have been historically both very unpopular, both seem to be far too old and unfit to serve as president for another term. Biden, the last numbers we saw in that were 74% of American voters saying that he was unfit to serve for another four years because of his age and increasing frailty. 49% of Americans said that about Trump. Now it's worse for Biden. But if Biden wasn't in the race, for Trump, that would be the worst that we'd ever seen.
And of course, now Biden isn't in the race and Trump is, which means that his age, his frailty, his incoherence when he makes statements, that is suddenly a big issue. It is immediately his largest vulnerability, even after the extraordinary ability of Trump to stand up and put his fist in the air and say, “fight, fight, fight” after an assassination attempt, a huge thing, but suddenly yet another piece of unprecedented history in the US.
This one in favor of the Democrats. I'd like to say this is a good day in US politics in the sense that it shows a level of selflessness from President Biden that he was unwilling ultimately, to put himself personally and his ego ahead of that of the country, and he recognized that this was going to be a disaster. No one had the ability to force him. They pressured him. They embarrassed him. They showed him facts. But ultimately, if Biden decided that he wasn't going to go, no one could have forced him. And of course, that's exactly the case for Trump as well. And, you know, you'll remember that after the 2020 election, when everyone in the Republican Party was saying, “you got to stop this, you got to stand down.” That's absolutely not what Trump was prepared to do. He puts himself above the party, above the country, and has done so consistently. I mean, you know, if you think about, the vice presidents in these cases, the 45th President Trump, threatened the life of his vice president in a last ditch effort to hold on to power, back on January 6th in 2021. The 46th president ended his campaign and strongly endorsed his vice president for the good of the country.
It would be hard to see a more dramatic contrast between two old white men in political power in the United States, one, America’s Nero, holding on for himself no matter what the consequences. The other, America’s Cincinnatus. They are not the same. And as a consequence, the US now has a much more competitive political race. I do believe that over the next month, the Democrats will not just dominate headlines, and they've done that a lot with Biden's unfitness, but also have energy and enthusiasm, and that they have not have and they haven't had for a very long time.
That is certainly an advantage for them. I think that Kamala Harris will do much better if the election nomination process is at least somewhat competitive. Now, I personally don't think that Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, who are, you know, seen to be the most well-known and competitive candidates, potential candidates outside of Kamala Harris. I don't think they'll run, with Biden now having endorsed, fully endorsed his vice president, with Kamala wanting that endorsement, I think that they will wait, they’ll bide their time. They will support Harris, and they'll wait themselves until 2028. But I do think that others will decide to declare, I don't know who they'll be, but I think there will be some. And I think it's interesting that former President Obama did not endorse Harris. He said very strongly positive things about Biden. But he said that the process needs to be open and play out.
And I think that that is not just a knife to Harris. Not at all. I think it is a Obama recognition, that for all of her advantages, she has vulnerability and she will benefit from a process that doesn't look like the political machine has just decided that they're going to anoint her, that there's not going to be a primary process. So there needs to at least be some level of competition, a race that she has to show that she can win. And, you know, conceivably she could implode during that process. And then maybe she isn't the nominee, though I would bet a lot at this point that she is going to be. Where do we go from here?
We're in unprecedented times. As much as this is a better day for US democracy and there haven't been many, it is also true that this is a democracy that remains in crisis. We were less than a second, a fraction of a second away from former President Trump getting killed, getting assassinated, and if that had happened, I have no doubt that we would have had George Floyd-style riots across the country, but with a lot more guns. And I think that there is a lack of appreciation of just how close this country was to a level of political chaos, social instability and violence. And we have three more months plus before this election, where both the Democrats and the Republicans still believe that if the opponent wins, that it is going to be the destruction of democracy.
Biden's standing down did not change Trump's view of that or his supporters view of that. And the Democrats still feel the same way about Trump, and they feel the same way about Trump, even after his near assassination. There's been no unifying of the country on the back of that, and there'll be no unifying of the country on the back of Biden stepping down. But there may well be a lot more unifying of the Democrats, with perhaps a significant number of independents that show up. So very divided, deeply vulnerable over the coming months, we're going to be very busy. But it's nice on a Sunday to have something nice to say.
And I will certainly say that to President Biden, someone that I have criticized a fair amount over the past months, as he has deteriorated for not, doing the right thing in standing down, that you sir have my appreciation. as an American and more importantly, as a citizen of this little planet here, for doing something that the world can take a little bit of inspiration from, and thinking of someone beyond yourself for your legacy, which looks better today than it did yesterday. That's it for me.
And I'll talk to you all real soon.
With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump?
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics: Biden is out of the presidential race, and it looks like Kamala Harris will replace him. The big question: How would she do against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden's out.
An unprecedented development is that the likely nominee for one of the two major parties has dropped out of the race with only a month to go before the Democratic conventions. The big question is who's going to replace him? And the obvious answer is Kamala Harris.
She's already picked up the endorsement of former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. President Obama put out a statement saying that he would support whoever the nominee is and is looking forward to a convention to work this out, but that's probably just an indication that he wants this to look competitive. Harris herself put out a statement saying she's looking forward to earning the trust of everybody in the Democratic Party. But you also have luminaries like Jim Clyburn who are already endorsing Harris, and you're unlikely to see competitors like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer appear on the stage anytime soon. So Harris is probably going to replace Biden.
How does she do against Donald Trump?
Well, that's the big wild card in this election, her favorability is basically where Joe Biden's was in the high 30s, which is a bad place to be if you're going to get elected, but Donald Trump isn't that popular himself. Harris also faces the baggage of being the successor to an incumbent running for that incumbent seat. And unpopular incumbents tend not to do a great job passing on their seat to their successor. Harris hasn't really done anything to distinguish herself in four years of running her own presidential campaign or serving as vice president. She's kind of been relegated to a D-list of policy issues that she hasn't done much to effect, and the Democratic Party has a lot of other people who could probably be more competitive if they had time to run a primary process, but they don't. Harris does bring new energy to the campaign and has the ability to unite the Democratic Party behind her. However, Trump just does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration.
Stay tuned for more of what we're watching in US politics during this wild election year. Thanks.
President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House upon his return to Washington, DC from Delaware on July 25, 2021.
Biden drops out of 2024 presidential race
President Joe Biden on Sunday announced he is standing down and will no longer seek reelection in 2024.
Biden, 81, made the extraordinary decision following weeks of speculation over concerns about his age and capacity to do the job following his disastrous debate performance in late June.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden said in a statement.
“I will speak to the nation later this week in more detail about my decision,” Biden added.
Shortly after he announced that he was quitting the race, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
“My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” Biden said.
The president’s decision to step back reflects deep divisions among Democrats and came after a number of Democratic lawmakers urged Biden to drop out, both publicly and privately. Despite being heavily critical of Biden on issues such as the war in Gaza, progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stood by him as centrist Democrats like Rep. Nancy Pelosi pushed Biden to quit the race.
It’s unclear precisely who the Democratic presidential nominee will be now, though Biden's endorsement of Harris makes her the frontrunner.
By dropping out, Biden opened the door for the Democratic Party to gather behind another candidate and for the delegates pledged to him to vote as they want. But if Democrats do not coalesce behind a particular candidate before the convention in August, it could pave the way for an open convention in which prospective nominees would vie for support from delegates. This would be messy and hasn’t happened since 1968.
A lot is now up in the air, and this is a risky gamble for the Democratic Party as it fights to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning a second term – particularly as he seems to be gaining momentum following the assassination attempt a little over a week ago.
Trump, Biden & the US election: What could be next?
It’s been a week. In just seven days, former President Trump miraculously survived an assassination attempt, picked J.D. Vance as vice presidential candidate, and delivered the longest acceptance speech in history at the GOP convention in Milwaukee (he also holds the record for the second and third longest acceptance speeches). Oh, and through it all, the Democratic party continued its tailspin into crisis as internal clamor grew for President Biden to step aside. Amazing when the afterthought for the week is whether the sitting president will remain on the ticket for an election just months away. But that's where we are.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer reflects on this pivotal week in US politics and welcomes back media journalist and former CNN show host Brian Stelter on the show alongside Vanderbilt political historian Nicole Hemmer. “We're living in a period of escalating political violence and social and political instability,” Hemmer tells Bremmer. “That was true in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and I think that it's true today."
In a wide-ranging conversation that touches on all the major news of the week, Hemmer and Stelter dig into the political divisions that led to this moment of horrific political violence. “The real divides are not between Democrats and Republicans, although those are real,” Stelter adds. “But the biggest divide that we're seeing is between extremists and those who are moderates, the great silent majority."
Both guests also comment on the media's role in this fraught environment, with Hemmer critiquing prediction-focused coverage and Stelter advocating for better representation of casual news consumers and politically fatigued voters. The three also discuss the likelihood of Biden stepping down, an eventuality that Stelter argues is inevitable. “It is clear the Democratic Party elites are not with Biden. And I don't see that tide turning. I don't see how it changes.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Stelter: It's clear the Democratic party elites are not with Biden
The rats are abandoning the ship, as the saying goes. In this case, the Democratic leadership are the ones fleeing, and the ship they're abandoning is President Biden. After the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump, which thrust the country into one of the most tumultuous political weeks in recent memory, chatter is getting louder again within the Democratic Party for Biden to step down.
In a wide-ranging interview for the latest episode of GZERO World, media journalist, and former CNN show host Brian Stelter joins Vanderbilt political historian Nicole Hemmer on a panel with Ian Bremmer to take stock of the week that was and to chart the way forward for the Democratic Party. But there's no getting around the optics. Just as the GOP was displaying a tight-knit sense of unity at the RNC convention in Milwaukee, the Democrats were in disarray. Stelter says that when it comes to Joe Biden's future, the writing is on the wall.
"It's been drip, drip, drip, drip, drip for the better part of a month now. Through reporting, through analysis, through polling, through donor statements, and probably most importantly from the statements of elected officials, it is clear the Democratic Party elites are not with Biden. And I don't see that tide turning."
But even if every senator, official, and elder statesperson in the Democratic elite urges President Biden to get out of the race, it's up to the man himself to make that decision. And as he recovers in isolation from COVID, there's not indication yet that Biden's any closer than he was weeks ago, after his disastrous debate performance, to passing the torch. In the meantime, the Dems will wait and worry, and the only thing they'll be passing are the Tums.
Look for the full interview with Brian Stelter and Nicole Hemmer on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television soon (check local listings.)
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
After Trump attack, will the US unite?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a quick take to kick off your week. Still talking very much about the United States, the elections, the assassination attempt on former President Trump. We now have the Republican National Convention kicking off in Milwaukee. And is it possible that anything good can come from this most tragic event and very close to a world changing event?
I wish I could say yes. I certainly was heartened to see in the initial hours after the attack that the president of the United States strongly condemned it, called for unity, a very nonpartisan statement, pulled down campaign ads and stopped with planned events for the president and vice president. This is no time to be campaigning. I saw the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, did the same in a statement that he made publicly a few hours later. And it's good to hear from former President Trump, that he is changing his speech and wants it to be a less divisive and a more unifying speech.
All of that sounds promising, and there is an opportunity here. But I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical. I think that the divisions in the country are too deep, and the weaponization and of the politics has come from inside the House. It's not from the Russians or the Iranians or the Chinese. It's from American citizens. And that's very likely to continue. When you say that former President Trump is a dictator and that if you elect him, the US will become a dictatorship, and you compare him to Hitler, then it is understandable that many people would view it as patriotic to do everything possible to stop him. If he is an existential threat to the country, then he must be stopped by all means. And if it is true that Biden and the Democrats will destroy the country, and we'll have World War III and the country will be gone if they're elected as Trump has said, then you have to stop them. You have to do everything possible to stop them.
And in that regard, I think this is not going to look like 9/11, where after an external threat, the country rallied together and said never again and meant it, made a lot of mistakes, of course, trillions of dollars and a failed war in Iraq, a failed war in Afghanistan. But it was unifying for America. The response to 9/11 was not red or blue. It was not left or right. It was all Americans, and waving a flag was something that all Americans were proud of and did not see in any way as polarized. I think this is different. I think this is a lot more like what we saw on January 6th. January 6th, you have a lot of people that were outraged, Democrats and Republicans outraged with the violence that they saw in the Capitol building with the illegal insurrection and attempt to overturn a legitimate vote.
And you saw the speeches that were made by Senator McConnell and many others that said that this would not stand. But in a short period of time, it became politicized. It became weaponized, it became Democrats saying one thing and Republicans saying another. And we're now at the point that the January 6th insurrection is singing the national anthem are seen as patriots by the MAGA right. And not only does Trump play that at rallies, but he salutes it. That is, I fear, what's going to happen in the United States in the next four months of this election. I want to see the country come together. I want everyone to recognize that the rhetoric is dangerous and leads to violence and that the US is not on the verge of becoming a dictatorship, and that Trump is not the second coming of Hitler, and that political violence in all of its forms in the United States is something that we as a democracy can't tolerate that. But I don't believe that's where we're heading. I think it is, unfortunately, much more likely that we are going to revert to an “us” versus “them” diatribe.
It is going to be an incredibly polarized election, and people really do feel like democracy at stake. 75% of Americans, when asked, believe that democracy of the United States is at stake with this election in November. The problem is, of course, they don't agree on who's behind that and who's responsible. 25% of Americans agree that it's patriotic to turn to violence in this environment to protect the country. And that doesn't mean that 25% of the people are prepared to actually take action on it. But the level of sympathy, private sympathy and public sympathy is an awful lot higher than the number of people that publicly said, “Oh my God, this is horrible, and nothing like this should ever happen.” And everybody that's watching this knows that.
And so, I fear, that we are not going to learn the right lesson from this near assassination. I'd love to see Trump himself prove me wrong, and we'll see, what the speech is like. But there have been many times, of course, over Trump's presidency, it's like now he's a leader, now he's presidential. And of course, the reality is that Trump is much less of a leader than he is a winner. And Trump won the presidency by dividing America, by taking advantage of the existing divisions and playing on them and preying on them, that he refers to others, his political opponents, as losers. Much more focused on that than fellow citizens. And the need for that to change is immediate and immense. The United States cannot be a country of winners and losers. The United States has to be a team with leaders that we respect. And there are many countries around the world, many democracies around the world, that have that manifestation that feels much more like that.
But the United States today does not. And that's fundamentally why the US is a democracy in crisis and is uniquely in crisis compared to all the other democracies in the world that have had their elections over the past months with no problem at all. It's not where we are right now in the US. We can't normalize this. We can't accept it. We have to be willing to fight together for our democracy, as opposed to fight each other and destroy our democracy. I will say I'm a little offended that President Putin thinks we need his help to destroy democracy. We're more than capable of doing that ourselves. Russians. Stay the hell out. But, seriously, this is a time that we need a lot more from Americans being together.
And that is not the way that we define our political system right now. So that's my honest take on this. I hope I'm wrong. My analysis is not where I want the country to go. And it's not where I'll work on the country to go.
So, I'll be back and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war
Listen: Does Ukraine have the strength, stamina, and support to win the war against Russia? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, for his perspective on the war, European unity, and whether NATO allies can remain united long enough to see Ukraine through to victory. Despite uncertainty about the 2024 US election, Ukraine’s struggle to recruit new troops, and rogue alliance member Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán meeting with Putin, Sikorski is confident Ukraine will ultimately prevail.
Poland is an important part of that defense strategy. The country, which has a 300-mile border with Ukraine, contributes a larger percentage of its GDP to defense spending than any other NATO member, including the US, and has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees. Sikorski says that NATO is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling and defending against an aggressive Russia and that Putin severely misjudged the strength of European and NATO unity in the lead-up to the invasion. Two and a half years into a bloody, brutal war with no end in sight, making sure that unity remains rock solid for as long as Ukraine needs is an urgent priority.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
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Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit
The White House has a long, storied tradition of hiding the medical issues of the president from the American public. Ronald Reagan’s administration hid signs of his dementia; FDR hid his paralysis for years; Woodrow Wilson spent his last year and a half as president debilitated by a stroke that left him blind in one eye while his wife worked as a “shadow president.”
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer explains why allies worry about the growing concerns around President Biden’s health, fitness for office, and stamina to lead the country for another four years. While there’s no evidence Biden is suffering from a distinct illness like Wilson or FDR, his disastrous debate performance last month made many question his ability to lead the country and the world for a second term.
Trump is now leading Biden in most major polls, but European allies overwhelmingly prefer the old-school, post-WWII institutionalist world order the current administration represents. Trump’s isolationist, “America First” worldview is skeptical of treaties and alliances, which could seriously jeopardize future military assistance to Ukraine, whose fate may very well hinge on the US presidential election.
Watch more on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, in which Poland's Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski discusses the future of NATO under a Biden or Donald Trump presidency, Ukraine's chances against Russia, and Viktor Orbán's rogue moves.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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