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REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
US pushes for longer Israel-Hamas truce
Top US officials are in the Middle East this week to try to prolong the fragile, temporary truce between Israel and Hamas made possible by the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
CIA Director Bill Burns, who was in Qatar on Tuesday as part of this push, is reportedly urging Hamas and Israel to embrace a broader agreement that would allow for the release of men and military personnel. Until now, the deal has only involved the release of women and children.
Sec. of State Antony Blinken is also set to visit Israel and the occupied West Bank this week, where he’ll discuss “continued efforts to secure the release of remaining hostages,” according to the State Department.
While the Biden administration and others pushing for a longer truce may succeed in getting a short-term extension – Israel has said it would add a day for every 10 hostages released, and the truce was extended by two days on Monday – there are serious doubts that a lengthier pause is in the cards anytime soon given the Israeli government’s vocal commitment to continuing the war.
The obstacle: Qatar, which has served as a mediator between the warring parties, says more than 40 of the 240 hostages seized on Oct. 7 are not held captive by Hamas. Dozens are reportedly being held by another militant group in Gaza – the Palestinian Islamic Jihad – that wants greater concessions from the Israeli government.
Israel has indicated that it will resume its Gaza offensive unless hostages continue being released. And even if all the hostages were freed, Netanyahu – whose political days are numbered, with recent polling showing that most Israelis want him to resign –- has made it clear he intends to destroy Hamas.
TL;DR: The conflict is paused, but far from over.
The limits of the China-Russia friendship
CIA Director Bill Burns once called Vladimir Putin an “apostle of payback.” But what about Putin's fellow autocrat wingman, Xi Jinping?
Xi and China are now in an awkward spot, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World. The Chinese are trying to condemn the invasion of Ukraine without condemning Russia, the invader.
Although the Chinese media and universities are firmly behind Moscow, Ian Bremmer says Beijing has many reasons to be careful about supporting its toxic BFF.
The thing is, China has much bigger problems at home. Economic growth has slowed down due to Xi's zero-COVID policy. Also, Russia ain't much of a trading partner compared to the US and the EU.
Still, there’s no economic calculus that’ll likely deter Xi on Taiwan, which has become a bigger concern for China given Putin's recent failures in Ukraine.
Watch the GZERO World episode: China’s discontent & the Russia distraction
Why CIA director Bill Burns visited Moscow; COP26 limited results
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What was the CIA director doing in Moscow the other day?
I think it was an attempt to bring more stability to the long-term relationship between the US and Russia. That does not hide that there are serious concern when it comes to the Russian intention versus Ukraine. And you never know, you might have a crisis there, if not any day, then at any time. But of course, stability and the long-term relationship is good anyhow.
What's the nature of the different agreements that are concluded at the COP26 deliberations in Glasgow?
Well, there have been a number of them, minor, if you compare it to the big issue, but I mean, important in themselves. Deforestation is of course important. Methane gases to limit their exposure to the atmosphere, is of course extremely important, more coming. But it doesn't hide the fact that it seems to be very difficult to get progress on the real big issue. And that is more substantial reductions of fossil fuel in the major emitters of the world.
US on track for August 31 withdrawal; House passes $3.5T plan
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Is the US on track for the August 31st withdrawal from Afghanistan?
The US is actually doing a pretty good job, getting its own citizens out of Afghanistan despite the chaos that's been seen at the airport and across the country over the last two weeks. It's estimated on Wednesday afternoon, there were about 1,500 citizens of the United States, still in Afghanistan. And some of them, according to Secretary of State Tony Blinken, may not want to leave. The US has been evacuating enormous numbers in the last several days. Over 21,000 people have gotten out. And even though Biden sent his CIA director, William Burns, to potentially negotiate a longer withdrawal date than August 31st with the Taliban, he says, he's going to stick to this deadline. The people who may not get out are the interpreters and helpers that aided the American military, who are native Afghanis, who are probably going to be left behind when the US leaves at the end of the month.
The House narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan. What's next for the Democrats?
Well, the House has to start putting some details now, underneath that top-line number. Some Democrats have said they're uncomfortable spending as much as $3.5 trillion. And other Democrats have said they're willing to spend that much, but it has to be fully paid for by most likely tax increases. The list of tax increases that Democrats have available to them is very long, but politically, a lot of these things can't get done. There's been a lot of pushback on things like raising the top capital gains rate, raising the top corporate tax rate, and they still have other tax cuts they want to do including reinstating the SALT tax deduction and new tax credits for low-income families and families with children. So what's next is that the House goes back on recess. They're going to reconvene the first or second week of September and start marking up bills to hit that $3.5 trillion number with a goal of passing both, the bipartisan infrastructure bill and, the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, out of the House by the 27th of September. Then it goes over to the Senate to see what they do there. There's a couple of moderate members who have been real holdouts on a lot of these points in this bill to date.
Why CIA director Bill Burns met with the Taliban
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on the CIA director's secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban, the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan, and the future of vaccine mandates following the FDA's approval of Pfizer's COVID vaccine.
CIA director Bill Burns held a secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban. How will it impact the ongoing evacuations?
Well, at the very least, you have to think that America's top priority, ensuring that all Americans get out of Afghanistan, given that the US controls nothing on the ground but Kabul Airport, will be facilitated. I would think that that was the reason for him to be there, absolute top priority. That has been successful. If it was a failure, we would've heard something about it by now, and the situation on the ground would be quite different. That is very different though than what happens after August 31st, and whether or not all of the Afghan nationals working with the Americans and in physical danger are going to be let out. So far, I haven't heard that from the Taliban. Certainly that will be a big piece of the negotiations. But better that he's there than not.
What do you expect to come from the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan on Tuesday?
Well, this is interesting because the Brits, who are chairing the G7 this year, really want to ensure that everyone gets out, and that means all the Afghans that have been working with the coalition forces. That means you have the ability to extend beyond August 31st, which President Biden has certainly not said he's been able to do and the Taliban forces have not said they'd agree to. We'll see where it goes. This is going to be a much more contentious G7 than what we saw in Cornwall a couple of months ago, and it'll be very interesting to see whether we have anything like the kind of statements from the Germans, from the French, the Brits criticizing the Biden administration after today's meeting that we did over the last week on Afghanistan. A lot of damage control will be done by President Biden in today's summit.
With FDA approval, are vaccine mandates imminent?
They're happening, and they will ramp up. There are a lot of companies that are going to feel much more comfortable requiring vaccines now that they've been fully approved. Pfizer Comirnaty, the name of their vaccine now, has been approved by the FDA. I also think that a lot of skeptics in the United States will get more comfortable because this was an emergency authorization before, and now it is a fully-approved vaccination the way others that we take, that our children take, have been for decades and decades. I'm hoping that it means good things for the United States in relatively short order. Certainly the numbers of vaccinations over the last couple days, also driven by Delta variant, also going up.