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Ian Bremmer addresses the audience at the 2024 US-Canada Summit in Toronto.
American and Canadian voters yearn for something they might never get
Is there a deep, secret yearning from American and Canadian voters for a radically open border? Do people really want Canada and the US to be more like the EU? OR, is border politics all about isolationism, security fears, and building walls? The results of an exclusive new poll from GZERO and Data Science will surprise you – and ought to be shaping the election campaigns in both countries.
We revealed part of the poll at the US-Canada Summit that I had the pleasure of co-hosting in Toronto, put on by the teams at Eurasia Group and BMO. Led off by our own Ian Bremmer and BMO’s CEO Darryl White, it included a remarkable collection of over 500 people, including political leaders from across the spectrum in both countries who debated, speechified, conversed, and argued.
Why are so many people so keen to discuss the US-Canada relationship? As Bremmer said, this is a hinge moment in history, with three wars raging — one in Ukraine, one in the Middle East, and one in the United States — a remark that caused gasps and nods. On top of that, 60+ elections are reshaping the world this year (Modi humbled in India, Macron in a showdown with the far right in France, Sunak shambolically slinking off in the UK). Meanwhile, China is threatening Taiwan, and AI is grinding its way through our economies and imaginations.
Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council under Trump and the vice chairman of IBM, admitted that what worries him most is the collision between geopolitics and the economy. They are inextricably linked and making things worse. With the political bombs falling so close, people are desperately looking for a safe shelter, and that shelter is the US-Canada relationship. As Delaware Sen. Chris Coons said, squabbles between the two countries over tariffs or softwood lumber don’t add up to a pile of shell casing next to say China and Taiwan, which may be why the relationship is so often taken for granted or outright ignored. It is and remains one of the biggest bilateral trading relationships in the world.
Globalization is giving way to new forms of regionalism, or “friend-shoring with a vengeance.” But should the region have internal walls or not?
The mandate of the conference is to bring together people tired of partisan bickering, slogan swamping, and dizzying disinformationalizing – in other words, the bubble-blowing BS of everyday politics. They are urged to be authentic, honest, and, despite their political differences, get on with figuring out how to build something better and more secure than we have now. And they did.
Who joined in?
This is a partial list (pause for a long breath): Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister Francois Phillippe Champagne, Treasury Board President Anita Anand, who settled a major border strike during the conference, Ontario and Saskatchewan Premiers Doug Ford and Scott Moe, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, political wizards like David Axelrod from the Obama campaign and Christopher Liddell, the former White House Deputy Chief of Staff to Donald Trump.
Speaking of the Trump folks, there was Gary Cohn, mentioned above, giving Canada a shot and saying it can “tag along” on US economic progress. Former Bank of Canada and England Governor Mark Carney spoke about building together based on common values, and there was Mitch Landrieu, the Biden/Harris 2024 National Campaign Co-Chair, who was in full fight mode over Trump. They were joined by more than 150 CEOs, dozens of policy wonks, and experts on everything from AI, security, economic policy, and more.
There were tray loads of interesting insights and ideas:
- On Trade: The 2026 review of the USMCA is widely seen as the most important framework for the economic future of North America, and there are genuine fears that if Trump wins (Turns out, Ivermectin may actually be a political vaccine against felony convictions) and senses that trade imbalances with the US have not changed, he will rip it up and send the economies reeling with nasty and counterproductive tariffs.
- On the Inflation Reduction Act: Candid admissions from US politicians that protectionism and US industrial policy can sideswipe Canada, simply because Canada gets forgotten.
- On Biden vs. Trump: A quote attributed to Bill Clinton was repeated as to why Biden’s good economic record is not reflected in his polling: “Strong and wrong beats weak and right.”
- On why Democrats are losing working-class voters: I asked David Axelrod why Democrats and progressives spend so much time convincing themselves that people like Trump are not fit for office but so little time reflecting on why their own policies are failing to connect with so many people. He told me — and later told the audience — that Democrats treat working-class Americans with such condescension it’s like anthropologist Margaret Mead studying what were then called “primitive societies” and telling them, “You need to be more like us, and we can teach you.” A devastating critique.
- Here is another Axe moment: Why are some independent and conservative voters tuning out Trump?” “Having Trump as president is like living next to someone who runs a leaf blower 24/7.”
- Personnel is policy: Gary Cohn spoke about why you need to know the people in power. “Any president gets to make 2,800 appointments — they make them all — but ‘personnel is policy,’ so if you want to know what Trump will do, see who he is appointing.” By the way, expect the USMCA trade negotiator Robert Leitheiser, the very guy who insisted on the six-year trade review, to be a senior member of the Trump team,
- Christopher Liddell of Trump White House 1.0, admitted that Trump didn’t know what he was doing in the first six months of his first term, but that it’s different this time, and that the planning and policies are already well underway. We should expect the first six months of a Trump 2.o to be rapid, decisive, and consequential, as he only has one term. His first target will be China and … his political enemies.
- On defense spending: Mark Carney said Canada has no more excuses and must reach 2% spending on NATO – just weeks before the NATO summit in Washington.
But there was one issue that lurked beneath the surface of cross-border politics and wasn’t raised: Should the demand by many US politicians to close down their southern border be counterbalanced by a much quieter, almost secret demand from people to … open the Canadian border, EU style?
It is not as crazy as it sounds.
GZERO commissioned an exclusive poll from our partners at Data Sciences and asked: Would you support an EU-like arrangement between the US and Canada?
The results are fascinating.
Overall, 53% said they would support such an arrangement – 50% in Canada and 55% in the US, while 33% are neutral. And, get this, only 14% are against the idea. Not surprisingly, it breaks down on party lines: 71% of Biden supporters are far more supportive the idea, while 45% of Trump supporters want it. In Canada, it’s almost an even split: 50% LPC/NDP lime it while on the right, 54% of CPC/PPC support the idea.
The point? The longest undefended border in the world is still very defended, and millions of people would like to cross more easily, work more freely, and trade more efficiently. In 2022, US trade with Mexico was $855 billion, and with China it was $758 billion. With Canada? $908 billion.
So making US-Canada trade more efficient with an EU-style arrangement seems like a no-brainer. Last week, we all celebrated D-Day and the beginning of the fight for peace. So many people died in that bloody sacrifice, yet today, the French and the Germans, who fought two world wars that left millions on both sides slaughtered, can move, trade, and work freely across each other's borders in a way Americans and Canada can only dream about. It is baffling.
If anything is a warning about why closing borders and setting up tariffs is disastrous, look at the UK and Brexit, which has essentially tanked the UK economy. The Brexit-loving Conservatives under Rishi Sunak are now facing a potential political extinction event on par with the Canadian Conservative party of 1993, when Brian Mulroney went from winning the biggest majority in Canadian history to stepping down months before an election his party lost so badly they were left with two lonely seats.
We are heading into a US election and a possible Canadian election where low growth, high inflation, and fear of an unstable world might kill prosperity. Why aren’t the two best friends in the world campaigning on an idea that has proven to be one of Europe’s great drivers of growth? An open border.
We all get it. The politics of the southern border is driving politics at the northern border, but if voters can distinguish between the two, why can’t politicians?
They likely never will. And this may be the most 2024 political moment of all: Ignore the quiet ideas people want, and focus on the noisy fights no one can stand.
Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems
President Truman famously had a sign on his Oval Office desk that read: "The buck stops here." Indiana Republican Congresswoman Victoria Spartz believes that truth holds when it comes to President Biden and US immigration dysfunction as well.
"I will lay responsibility on President Biden because he is in charge," Spartz tells Ian Bremmer in an interview for GZERO World. "He's a top executive president. Trump is campaigning to be president, so I'll judge him if he is a president, I think he will likely might be."
Ian interviewed House members on both sides of the political aisle for this episode, and Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant who supports increased US aid to her home country, is not surprised that the bipartisan border deal could not deliver it.
Watch full episode here: The US border at a tipping point
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem ›
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The US border crisis at a tipping point
How do you solve a problem like the US southern border? If that question makes you hum a certain Sound of Music song, just know that it's more pleasant than whatever has been floating through the minds of the hundreds of members of the US Congress. Because if there was ever a week of dysfunction on Capitol Hill, this was it. Congress failed to advance, or even entertain, a bipartisan US border deal, which also included much-needed funding to Ukraine. Why? Because of a man who is not even in government now, but very well might be back again soon: Former President Donald Trump. To unpack why the border crisis is getting worse instead of better, Ian Bremmer speaks with lawmakers on opposing sides of the aisle in Capitol Hill.
"We have an urgent need for funding for Ukraine," California Democratic Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren says in an interview for GZERO World.. "I mean, urgent...I look at some of my colleagues, and it's like the communist wing of the Republican party. They're ditching Taiwan to China, ditching Ukraine to the Russians. I mean, it's really unbelievable."
Republican Congresswoman and Ukrainian immigrant Victoria Spartz, however, defended why she wouldn't support a border deal in the current form. "I don't think that this piece of legislation really addresses the important issues and strategies that we have to deal with. I don't think it's really addresses in our border situation. It's just kind of lipstick on a pig."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Texas takes immigration into its own hands ›
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- Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem ›
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- The New York migrant crisis up close - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem
In this edition of Ian Explains, we look at the border deal that wasn’t and try to answer a very complicated question: Why is our immigration system so broken?
The US is a country of multiple realities. The economy is booming. Everything is expensive. Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. Donald Trump is the leader of the GOP. Taylor Swift is a pop icon. Taylor Swift is a Deep State asset. And then there’s immigration. In one reality, Democrats and Republicans have come together on legislation to secure the Southern border at a time when bipartisanship in Washington is all but unheard of. But in another reality, none of that matters, because the bill will never become law, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
So how did we get to this point, and why won’t anything come of it? The answer to the first question starts with Ukraine. Late last summer, US funding for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion (talk about a border crisis) was drying up. And for the first time since the war began, it was looking like Republicans were not going to approve more money until THEIR key national security issue was addressed.
Then President Biden did something truly unexpected. He said: “Ok.”
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
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- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Will US-Canada border deal mean riskier future for migrants? ›
- The Graphic Truth: Black representation in the US Congress ›
- Border disorder: Why Capitol Hill lawmakers disagree on the US immigration crisis - GZERO Media ›
- Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems - GZERO Media ›
- The New York migrant crisis up close - GZERO Media ›
Migrants gather near the border wall
Biden is (re)building the wall
No, you haven’t gone back in time to 2016. Yes, the US government is building a wall along the southern border.
The Biden administration announced this week that it will bypass environmental laws to fast-track 20 miles of barrier construction in the Rio Grande Valley – where 245,000 border arrests were made over the last year.
President Joe Biden, who campaigned on stopping Donald Trump’s border wall, is being called a hypocrite by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. In a press conference on Thursday, he told reporters the decision was not a policy reversal, and while he does not believe border walls are effective, the money Congress allocated to barrier construction under Trump in 2019 could not be allocated elsewhere.
But if the money has been allocated since 2019, why restart construction now? Biden is facing pressure from his party to get illegal immigration under control. Democratic leaders from New York to Illinois fear it could strengthen Republicans' tough-on-crime platforms and cost them suburban and moderate voters.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who has criticized Biden’s inaction, convinced the president to authorize work visas for nearly 500,000 Venezuelans to ease the strain on his city’s resources. Adams is currently on a tour of Latin America to dissuade would-be asylum-seekers from coming to the Big Apple.
Democrats will be trying hard not to lose gains in the state’s increasingly liberal cities and suburbs, particularly among Hispanic voters who are increasingly voting for the GOP. In Starr County, which is 95% Hispanic and construction on the wall is about to resume, voters shifted to the right by 55 points in 2020 compared to 2016.
Constructing a 20-mile barrier will neither win back these voters nor fix the country’s migrant crisis. But Biden’s decision underscores that border policy is a complex issue with decisive consequences in the 2024 election.
GOP wants immigration front and center in midterms
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
What role will immigration play in the midterm elections?
Immigration has been in the news a lot this week, and not because the US recently hit a record number of border encounters at two million. Several border state Republican governors, including those in Arizona and Texas, have started to charter buses to send immigrants from their states to the northeast, in the states and cities that are typically run by Democrats, who have generally embraced a more lax policy towards immigration, yet have not had to try and absorb the new migrants into the population in any significant numbers like the border states have. This practice has been going on for a while. Here in Washington, DC, the city has welcomed hundreds of migrants over the last several weeks. But the heat really got turned up to 11 earlier this week with a controversial stunt pulled by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who flew 40 Venezuelan migrants from Texas to the exclusive islands of Martha's Vineyard.
What's the Florida governor doing flying migrants from a state he does not run? Good question. What DeSantis has done has been a lightning rod for controversy and has attracted a lot of attention from the media to the number of migrants coming to the US, but has also led to accusations that he's acting coolly and treating these people as political pawns. DeSantis does not have much to fear from the people who've criticized this move. It's been pretty popular with Republicans and has ignited a conversation in the press about immigration that Republicans hope will help them win over independent voters in the midterm elections.
Many of these immigrants are seeking asylum in the United States, as they flee political persecution and poverty in their home countries. These people cross the border illegally, but once they have arrived and applied for asylum, they are here legally. It can take years to resolve these humanitarian claims, and many of these migrants end up staying in the US for months or even years while their cases are considered, usually relocated to other border states or places deeper in the United States.
DeSantis's controversial actions have drawn attention to this massive spike in immigrant encounters, from 1.6 million last year to over two million this year, and drawn political attention to the outsized burden that border states bear from the surge of migrants, which is a major issue for Republican voters but not so much for Democrats, who in this cycle are telling pollsters, care about abortion access and gun violence than immigration. The Biden administration is attempting to detain this surge in migrants and is deporting roughly half of the adults that they encounter. This is going to remain a major political issue that begs for a legislative solution, but Republicans and Democrats are so far apart on it, it's unlikely there's one coming anytime soon.
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