Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro adjusts his protective face mask during a news conference to announce measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Brasilia, Brazil March 18, 2020.
What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro’s COVID crimes, Mali calls al-Qaeda, Facebook gets a facelift
Bolsonaro accused of crimes against humanity: A long-running Senate investigation in Brazil has found that by downplaying the severity of COVID, dithering on vaccines, and promoting quack cures, President Jair Bolsonaro directly caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. An earlier version of the report went so far as to recommend charges of homicide and genocide as well, but that was pulled back in the final copy to a mere charge of "crimes against humanity", according to the New York Times. The 1,200-page report alleges Bolsonaro's policies led directly to the deaths of at least half of the 600,000 Brazilians who have succumbed to the virus. It's a bombshell charge, but it's unlikely to land Bolsonaro in the dock — for that to happen he'd have to be formally accused by the justice minister, an ally whom he appointed, and the lower house of parliament, which his supporters control. Still, as the deeply unpopular Bolsonaro limps towards next year's presidential election, a rap of this kind isn't going to help.
Sup al-Qaeda — Mali: The West African nation of Mali has long had a problem with jihadist violence, and French soldiers deployed there since 2013 have barely made a dent. Now, the military-civilian transitional government that has run things since last year's coup may try something different: ask local Islamic clerics to talk on their behalf to al-Qaeda's main affiliate in the country. They could find some common ground: the government seem open to sharia law and kicking out all foreign troops in exchange for peace. Former colonial power France, meanwhile, says it won't conduct joint military operations in any country that negotiates with jihadists, but Paris' failure to quell jihadist violence means the French now have little leverage with Bamako. Interestingly, the peace talks are being floated just as Mali is mulling a Russian offer to send 1,000 mercenaries to fight al-Qaeda — which the French are fiercely against, and will likely be scrapped if the government cuts a deal with the jihadists. More broadly, whatever happens in Mali will have ripple effects across the entire Sahel region.
The artist formerly known as "Facebook": Faced with a growing chorus of criticism about his company's unchecked market power, its corrosive impact on political discourse, its harm to kids, and its propensity to both spread dangerous lies and threaten free speech, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is doing the obvious thing: he's changing its name. That's right, in the coming days, the social media giant is set to unveil a new handle of its own, according to a scoop by The Verge. The name change won't affect the core social media app itself, but it will become the primary moniker for the broader conglomerate, which Zuckerberg wants to focus on developing the "metaverse" and other new technologies. This is similar to what Google did in 2015, when it rebranded itself as Alphabet or, if you like, to what Kanye West did two days ago when he rebranded himself as "Ye". Whether Zuck's move will take some of the regulatory heat off of Facebook is anyone's guess, but in the meantime, what do you think he should call the new company?
Clashes in Brazil as Bolsonaro's support plummets
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here with the Quick Take. Back in the office, we are functioning and open after a year and a half which is absolutely insane. 80 new employees since the pandemic who haven't met each other in person, most of the time. So God, we're happy to be back here. And wanted to kick it off by talking about Brazil.
Haven't talked about Brazil in a while, but it is their Independence Day. And wow, what an Independence Day it is. President Bolsonaro, who is in the cellar, popularity wise, the lowest popularity he's had since he's been president. And for lots of reasons, mishandling of COVID, economic problems, energy shortages, even a little bit of corruption scandals. Seen as not an effective president of the country and presidential elections next year. So, a combination of things that are setting him off individually. And has said quite famously in the past few days, that in upcoming elections, he's either going to win, or be arrested, or be killed. That those are the only three options.
In other words, it is inconceivable that he could possibly lose elections, and just like someone else here in the United States just a year ago. And so, with the Independence Day, he basically told his supporters, I want you to come out onto the streets in Sao Paulo, in Brasilia. They've been trucking in a whole bunch, thousands from agricultural regions. He told them to grab their rifles. The potential for violence is very real. And indeed yesterday, as some of these demonstrations were setting up, you've seen some push through police blockades. So, the potential for a January 6th type event in Brazil is very real. And have to be concerned about much larger scale violence in Brazil than what we experienced in the United States back in January. And as in the United States, the president of Brazil is very much personally inspiring and inciting the events that are happening.
I mean, if his supporters believe that the election is going to be stolen by the nefarious deep state, the institutions that will do anything possible legally or illegally to take away the president that they voted for, then how could it be anything but patriotic to go out and express your support through whatever means necessary for the democratically elected president? Now, couple of differences between Brazil and the United States, some on the positive side, some on the negative side. On the positive side, Brazilian elections are at the national level, unlike in the United States where rules are set up state by state. So, it's actually a lot more difficult in Brazil to fudge or to politically contest an outcome. As in the United States, in Brazil, the judiciary is quite independent. And indeed, in the case of Brazil, is very much a foe of Bolsonaro and there's been enormous amount of fighting between the president and the Supreme Court, which is part of what's causing the crisis we have right now.
There is an open question as to whether Bolsonaro would try to refuse to accept rulings of the Supreme Court going forward, which could cause an institutional crisis. Bolsonaro is also a military man, hails from the military, has a lot of support among the rank and file. Not the federal level generals, not the leaders of the armed forces, but state police who are responsible to, accountable to local governors in regions that are supportive of Bolsonaro could well be loyal to him. And so the potential that you could see some level of split among those, with the legitimate ability to carry firearms in support of a Bolsonaro faction is real. And that could cause a lot more violence in Brazil than what we saw in the United States, where everyone in the military with the exception of a couple of individuals, let's say lone wolf wackos, on January 6th was very much in favor of rule of law.
Having said all of that, Bolsonaro has a relatively weak political party, his presidencies all on the back of him. And he is frittering away significant support. He has been the leader of the right, and as a consequence, business leaders and finance leaders have been fairly, strongly supporting him. You are now starting to see that support erode. And indeed, I've seen a number of them not just talk to me privately, but also talk publicly about their opposition to the way Bolsonaro has been governing recently. And so I think what is interesting is that the likely outcome in Brazil, if things get really ugly, if you end up with a January 6th type event on steroids, either today, which is certainly possible, or in the run-up to upcoming elections, then what would be more likely is Bolsonaro loses a very significant amount of his existing support and there's then space for a third party in the center for a new candidate that would show up. If that doesn't happen, then the most likely outcome is Lula, who the former president of the country who had been indicted, arrested, and in jail, and then released. And now is running for president would become president again in Brazil, something the business community would hate. But right now his numbers are vastly better than Bolsonaro's.
Two-person race, that's the likely outcome. If it's a three-person race, then all bets are off. But right now, Bolsonaro weakening very significantly. And as he's getting cornered, is becoming more and more extreme in his motives and his strategy. And that is losing more and more support. So very different from the institutionalized two-party system in the United States, where even after Trump loses, the Republican Party is still his party. By the way, another question a lot of people talking about whether or not he's going to announce that he's going to be the Republican nominee or he's running for president, who will certainly be the nominee if he does. Soon, given Afghanistan, but that's a different Quick Take.
Anyway, that's it for me, hope that Brazil stays relatively peaceful today, but we will see, and we'll be talking about it. Be good, everyone. Talk to you soon.
What We're Watching: YouTube snuffs Bolsonaro, Israel probes Pegasus, China rejects COVID inquiry (again)
YouTube pulls Bolsonaro's rants: Google-owned YouTube pulled down a series of videos on the channel of Brazil's populist President Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of spreading misinformation about the pandemic. YouTube removed more than a dozen clips for touting quack cures for coronavirus or claiming, in defiance of scientific experts, that masks don't reduce COVID transmissions. Last year, Twitter and Facebook also removed some content from Bolsonaro's feeds for similar reasons. But critics say that YouTube's move is too little too late, because Bolsonaro has been spreading misinformation about COVID since the pandemic began. Many Brazilians hold him personally responsible for the country's abysmal pandemic response, which has led to almost 550,000 deaths, the second worst toll in the world. Will YouTube's move change Bolsonaro's message? His weekly address to the nation, where he converses not only with government ministers but also various conspiracy theorists and loons, is broadcast on YouTube. Surely he doesn't want to risk losing that — or does he?
Israel establishes Pegasus probe: The Israeli government has set up a committee to probe recent allegations that an Israeli tech firm's surveillance software, called Pegasus, was licensed to foreign governments, and then used to spy on journalists, dissidents, and human rights activists. Seventeen media companies joined forces to cover this alleged cyber breach. NSO, the Israeli tech firm that licenses Pegasus, says it exports its products to 45 countries with approval from the Israeli government. In an interview after the alleged breach, NSO's CEO said that if the allegations of hacking are true "it is something we will not stand as a company," and claimed there was no link between the 50,000 leaked numbers and the company. NSO also says it welcomes a transparent probe that will clear the company's name. However, the group has not released any more information on its contractual agreements with various governments, like Saudi Arabia, which stands accused of human rights abuses.
China rejects another COVID origins probe: Barely five months ago, China thought it was finally done with probing the origins of the coronavirus, after a joint investigation with the World Health Organization reached the conclusion that, as the Chinese have always said, the virus most likely leaped from bats to humans, via another animal at a Wuhan wet market. Now, with US intelligence looking into the possibility that COVID may have leaked directly from a Wuhan lab — which most scientists say is less likely — Beijing doesn't want to revisit the issue again. The Chinese have turned down a WHO request for another probe, which is itself a big flashpoint in already-frosty US-China ties: the Americans say the Chinese have never been transparent about what happened in the early days of the pandemic, while the Chinese say the Americans only seek to blame China for political reasons. Whichever side you are one, it's important to clarify that a fresh investigation would aim only to ascertain whether the lab leak theory merits further study at all -- it would not reach any conclusions on its own.
Haitian president's killing reflects unprecedented rise in violence
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
What do we know about the assassination of Haiti's president?
Well, we know it's not making an awful lot of news the assassination of the leader of a country, because Haiti's a tiny economy. It's incredibly poor, it's been devastated by natural disasters and also by general lawlessness in the country. And over the last month, gang violence has become historically unprecedented. The police have been unable to maintain law and order in the streets, in most of the cities or sort of, major towns in Haiti. You've had thousands of Haitians displaced. You've had dozens of civilians killed and then overnight a gang entered the personal residence of the president. Again, police and presidential guard unable to stop them and he's dead. And his wife, the First Lady is in the hospital. It's a pretty staggering situation and obviously, some international support, some peacekeepers could be useful on the ground. Aid by itself is not going to do it right now.
What's the deal with US troops leaving Bagram airbase in the middle of the night?
This is the most important military airfield in Afghanistan. The US has been using it for staging operations over the last 20 years. The US as you know is pulling out of Afghanistan. Trump tried to get it done, didn't quite finish the job. Biden now saying that he will by 9/11. There's only about a thousand US troops left in Afghanistan with the civilian airport and guarding the US embassy. The Taliban is increasingly taking over all the territory. Afghan troops are fleeing. About a thousand deserted for Tajikistan in the past couple of weeks because they know the country is about to fall to the Taliban. And as the United States left Bagram in the middle of the evening, they apparently shut off the electricity. Apparently didn't tell the Afghan national commander that they were leaving. There was no handover. And so as a consequence, the place got thoroughly looted that night. That is an apocryphal story for what is about to come to the entire country as the Americans leave. Whether or not that means the US leaving now is the right thing is a very different story. I generally am sympathetic to getting the Americans out after 20 years, but we're clearly not handling this the way we should be either with our allies or with the Afghans.
Is this latest COVID 19 vaccine corruption scandal going to be the one that sinks Brazil's Bolsonaro?
Not in the near-term in the sense that in order for impeachment to actually succeed in Brazil you'd really need to see approval ratings down in the low teens consistently. That's not the case in Brazil. Bolsonaro is still in the thirties. You just don't have the support to get it done. But he would get crushed in presidential elections if they happened right now against Lula from the PT, the Workers' Party, who will be opposing him. Elections are next year. Increasingly, it is an uphill struggle for Bolsonaro. Interesting that the Brazilian president saying that these may be fake elections. He won't recognize the outcome of a stolen election. Sounds a lot like somebody we know here in the United States from just last year. And Brazil is indeed setting itself up for a very similar type of contested outcome from what we had in the United States.
- What We're Watching: Peruvian runoff, Haitian resignation - GZERO ... ›
- Afghanistan's neighbors on edge - GZERO Media ›
- Can 'Lula,' the hero of Brazil's left, unseat Bolsonaro? - GZERO Media ›
- As the US withdraws from Afghanistan all eyes are on Pakistan ... ›
- Ben Rhodes: the US should build a coalition to help Haiti’s political turmoil - GZERO Media ›
- Ben Rhodes: the US should build a coalition to help Haiti’s political turmoil - GZERO Media ›
- Biden’s Caribbean surprises - GZERO Media ›
What We're Watching: Bolsonaro criminal probe, Lebanon's "social explosion," Zuma defies court, Putin's definition of champagne
Bolsonaro probe heats up: A smattering of protests broke out in cities across Brazil this weekend after the Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for a criminal probe into President Jair Bolsonaro for "dereliction of duty" linked to procurement of COVID vaccines. What's this all about? A recent congressional inquiry into Bolsonaro's broad handling of the COVID crisis revealed that he knew — and failed to report to authorities — a shady deal negotiated by his health ministry to buy jabs from a private Indian pharmaceutical company for more than 10 times the price originally quoted. The allegations have sparked fresh calls to impeach Bolsonaro, but conviction would require support from two-thirds of the lower house of Congress, an unlikely scenario given Bolsonaro's broad web of alliances in parliament. Still, the unfolding political drama is indeed having an impact on the street cred of the populist president, who rose to power on an anti-establishment, anti-corruption platform: Bolsonaro's net approval rating now hovers at -23 percent. Brazilians, who have been pummeled by the COVID crisis, will surely be watching the probe very closely ahead of next year's presidential vote. The timing is not great for Bolsonaro, whose nemesis, leftwing former president Lula, is gaining steam in the polls.
Lebanon's impending "social explosion:'' Lebanon's financial and social crises have been deepening for months, but Prime Minister Hassan Diab recently warned that a "social explosion" is imminent. Gas and electricity shortages have intensified, prompting nationwide protests. Recent reports detail Lebanese lining up for hours to fill up their vehicles, with some even pushing their cars because of the dire fuel scarcity situation. For months, Lebanon's fractious transitional government has passed ad hoc measures to try and address the worsening economic crisis: Parliament recently passed a $556 million food ration program to help Lebanese buy basic goods (half of Lebanese now live below the poverty line) but it's unclear how the cash-strapped state will pay for it. As we've written before, the current mess is a direct result of a severe economic crisis that started in late 2019 as a result of decades of corruption and mismanagement. It was then turbocharged by the fallout from the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, which left Lebanon without a functioning government. Last month, the World Bank said that Lebanon's economic crisis ranks among the world's most severe since the mid-1800s.
Zuma defies court — again: Jacob Zuma, South Africa's defiant former president, has refused to turn himself in to authorities after the country's top court sentenced him to 15-months in prison for failing to appear at an inquiry into corruption that occurred during his time in office. Zuma, who is 79, has launched several court appeals in recent days, saying that sentencing him to jail during a global pandemic is the same as "sentencing me to death." A stalwart of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party and close confidante of Nelson Mandela, Zuma served as president for nine years until 2018, when he was forced to resign amid graft allegations. But he retains an extremely loyal following: in recent days, hundreds of supporters formed a "human shield" outside his home, vowing to protect Zuma if police showed up to arrest him. Zuma, for his part, told the crowd that "a messy confrontation would've ensued if police dared to arrest me." The standoff is exacerbating tensions within the already-divided ANC, making life hard for Zuma's successor and former ally, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has pledged to bring "ethics into politics."
What We're Ignoring:
Putin's definition of champagne: Fresh tensions are bubbling between Moscow and Europe, after Vladimir Putin signed a law that says only Russian producers of fizzy white wine can use the term "champagne" on their products in Russia. As anyone who's spent (and can remember) a new year's celebration with Russians knows, the country has long produced its own "Sovyetskoye Shampanskoye" (Soviet Champagne), a glorious, festive, splitting headache in a bottle. Much of the stuff is made in southern Russia, as well as in Crimea, the peninsula of Ukraine which Moscow annexed in 2014 and is trying to prop up as best it can now. Meanwhile, the makers of actual champagne are popping mad now, with market leader Moët Hennessy pledging to halt all exports to Russia until a solution can be found. The EU is making its usual "why I oughta!" strong statements, but will flutes go empty in Russia now? The country imports about 50 million liters of sparkling wine annually, of which about 13 percent is from the Champagne region of France, according toDrinks Business, a trade publication.
The EU's COVID Digital Certificate aims to facilitate travel in the EU by avoiding quarantine.
What We’re Watching: EU COVID pass mess, Bolsonaro in trouble, Kim Jong Un’s latest shakeup
EU rolls out COVID digital certificate: As of today, the EU's long-awaited COVID Digital Certificate system — a centralized database of residents' vaccination status and test results — is up and running. Good news for those wishing to travel around the bloc again this summer, right? Not so fast. First, countries worried about the more infectious Delta COVID variant are still permitted to restrict travel from countries where the strain is prevalent. Second, some EU member states are still not fully integrated with the system, so the usual testing and quarantine requirements are in place. Third, the system greenlights people who have received vaccines approved by the European Medical Agency, but not others such as the WHO-approved Sinovac or Sputnik V, which are being administered, for example, in Hungary. As with its vaccine rollout, we predict the bloc's vaccine (gasp!) "passport" scheme will be initially glitchy, but ultimately work out fine.
Brazil's president jabbed by vaccine scandal: For two months, Brazil's Senate has publicly probed the government's mishandling of the pandemic. With more than 500,000 Brazilians already killed by COVID, the hearings have focused chiefly on the government's failure to secure vaccines fast enough, even as Bolsonaro doubted the severity of COVID and pushed quack cures. But this week brought some bombshell testimony: health officials said President Jair Bolsonaro ignored their concerns about corruption in the procurement of shots from India. If true, Bolsonaro could face criminal charges. Opposition leaders will doubtless seize on these new revelations to bolster their case for impeachment, but as long as Bolsonaro can count on the unwavering support of 25 to 30 percent of Brazilians, his opponents may have an uphill battle to remove him. A bigger question is how this affects Bolsonaro's 2022 re-election campaign. Recent polls showed him getting trounced in the first round by his nemesis, the leftwing former president Lula.
North Korean reshuffle: Kim Jong Un is quite upset these days (and not because Joe Biden is ghosting him). First, he admitted that North Korea, the worker's paradise where nothing can go wrong, has a food shortage problem. Then, the portly Kim found that instead of congratulating him for shedding a few pounds, his own countrymen are shedding tears over their beloved Supreme Leader looking "emaciated." Now he's fired an unknown number of his most senior officials for not doing enough to prevent a "great crisis" for the country with the pandemic — a somewhat bizarre statement, considering that to this day the country has yet to admit that there have been any COVID infections at all. The purge seems to be Kim's biggest shakeup since 2013, when the relatively new Supreme Leader ordered the execution of his uncle to show the elite of the one-party state that he wasn't to be trifled with. Now, the circumstances are quite different. With North Korea's economy in shambles due to crippling US sanctions and facing famine, Kim needs his lieutenants at the top of their game to help him drag the Hermit Kingdom out of its current troubles.
Can Brazil (and Bolsonaro) recover from a crippling year?
Jair Bolsonaro had a Trump-like rise to power to become the president of Brazil, but some of the same attributes that got him elected have contributed to the many economic, political and public health crises plaguing his country. In addition to the COVID pandemic, Brazil is still suffering from the impact of its worst ever recession which began in 2014. Bolsonaro promised to turn that around—but economic growth remains low and unemployment very high. As for the Amazon, its rapid deforestation accounted for one third of the destruction of the world's tropical forests in 2019 alone. Bolsonaro is up for reelection next year, and it's going to be an interesting campaign. The likely challenger is Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is as far left as Bolsonaro is right.
Watch the episode: Brazil on the brink
Brazil on the brink
Latin America's largest economy has endured years of economic hardship, a barrage of political scandals, and one of the worst pandemic death tolls in the world. So where does Brazil go from here and how much longer can its president hold onto power? Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who remains one of the most influential political figures in the country, joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Brazil's increasingly divided society, the potential fate of its current far-right leader, the prospects of his most likely challenger (known to all as "Lula") the climate crisis in the Amazon, and the country's complicated relationship with China.