Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, are seen in a combination of file photographs taken on the campaign trail in October.
Eagle Claw and the death of the October surprise
Is there an October surprise that might make or break a president?
The October surprise dates back to President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 this month and, surprising many, managed to cast his vote for Kamala Harris.
During his 1980 campaign against Ronald Reagan, Carter believed a daring rescue of the 52 hostages that Iranian revolutionaries held after storming the American Embassy on Nov. 4, 1979, would turn things around.
So Carter launched Operation Eagle Claw. On April 24, 1980, eight helicopters and a C-130 plane secretly landed in the desert outside of Tehran to start the rescue operation. It was a colossal failure. Several choppers malfunctioned in a sandstorm and one crashed, killing eight US servicemen. Their bodies were later recovered by the Iranians and used in a sickening public display in Tehran.
Years later, I traveled to Atlanta, Georgia, to interview Carter, and he told me that, in his unequivocal view, had that helicopter not crashed, the hostages would have been rescued, and he would have won the election.
Still, even after Eagle Claw failed, the Reagan campaign feared an “October surprise,” where, at the very last moment, Carter would announce a dramatic arms-for-hostages deal with Iran. It never happened, and the hostages were released under Reagan, but since then, campaigns have braced for a late-breaking event that might change the course of an election.
There have been other examples of October surprises since then. In October 1992, former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted, derailing George H.W. Bush’s reelection bid. And, of course, in October 2016, FBI Director James Comey dropped the news that he was opening up an investigation into Hillary Clinton, helping Trump win that election.
Will there be an October surprise this year?
The answer is likely no, and that’s one of the biggest mysteries of this campaign: Why not?
First off, the most consequential surprises this year came much earlier than October — Biden was pushed out in favor of Harris, while Trump was convicted of 34 felonies and survived two assassination attempts. Few things can top those.
What about this week’s revelation that Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly, a retired Marine general, alleges that Trump wanted to have generals like Hitler’s and that he’s an “authoritarian” who “admires people who are dictators”? The Trump campaign has denied this, but for all the press it’s getting, it’s hardly a surprise. Kelly and other former disgruntled Trump folks have long said all kinds of nasty things about the GOP nominee, and none of it has made a bit of difference to the campaign.
Trump remains slightly ahead in most national polls. Harris has run a solid, billion-dollar campaign, and while she can be vague and tends to serve up word-salad answers without any policy protein — as she did last night on CNN — Trump has had a far more ragged, rant-filled road, with significantly worse blunders, lies, and outbursts. And yet, it is still a coin toss, with the odds slightly favoring him.
That’s frustrating to Democrats, who think Trump has made a litany of disqualifying errors and statements, but none of them have stuck. Why not?
One reason may be that Trump’s main issues — when he stays on message — are the economy, immigration, and security, and those are proving to be more salient than the ones the Democrats focus on, such as democracy, abortion, and their record. They carry the weight of incumbency, and in 2024, that’s a drag.
A second, deeper reason is that Trump has become, essentially, surprise proof. He has so normalized personal character flaws and institutional distrust that it makes an October surprise impossible.
That merits a moment of reflection. The inherent assumption supporting an “October surprise” is that there are widely accepted conventions of behavior and social norms. When those are undermined or contradicted by a “surprise,” it will destroy a campaign. In past campaigns, that has been the exposure of lies, infidelities, corruption, a spelling error (the bar was so low for Dan Quayle), or a financial scandal. But we have had all of those in this run and … bupkis. Nothing moves. Harris might be more susceptible to a surprise because she is less well-known, but even her supporters don’t care about allegations of plagiarism or her policy flip-flops on fracking.
In 2024, the October surprise just doesn’t exist anymore. Polarization has so ossified the USA that partisans are shockproof. That may be a good thing as it means avoiding a cheap, manufactured scandal changing an election outcome, but it is also a sign that a healthy democracy is losing some of its early warning signals. Pain and surprise are signals to your body that something is wrong or threatening. It looks like today, the body politic feels no pain and, so, no surprise.
No matter what new story emerges in the final 12 days, don’t think for a moment it will make any difference. The biggest surprise will be on Nov. 5.
President Jimmy Carter and first lady Rosalynn Carter dance in the grand foyer of the White House in Washington, DC, on Jan. 31, 1979.
RIP Rosalynn Carter, the Steel Magnolia
Rosalynn Carter, humanitarian, political crusader, former first lady, and a leading advocate for people with mental health conditions and family caregivers, passed away on Sunday at the age of 96.
Born Eleanor Rosalynn Smith in Georgia in 1927, Rosalynn was delivered by her neighbor, nurse Lillian Carter, who brought her son Jimmy, then age three, to meet the baby. As a young woman, Rosalynn was close friends with one of Jimmy’s sisters, who set her up on a date with her brother. The pair were married in 1946 and had four children. For 77 years, Rosalynn and Jimmy were a formidable team, both in politics and as renowned humanitarians. Of his late wife, Jimmy Carter said “Rosalynn is my best friend ... the perfect extension of me, probably the most influential person in my life.”
Rosalynn Carter’s father died when she was 13, leaving her to help raise her siblings and marking her with a deep appreciation for the role of caregivers in society. Her passion for mental health was sparked in 1966 when, at a campaign stop, she met a woman who told her of the struggle she faced caring for her mentally ill daughter. After Jimmy Carter won the presidency in 1976, Rosalynn Carter used her position to advocate for both causes and was appointed honorary chairperson of the President's Commission on Mental Health.
Rosalynn Carter broke the mold of the traditional first lady. She eschewed concerns for fashion and decorating and set up her own office in the East Wing of the White House. She acted as a key advisor to her husband, gave policy advice, went on diplomatic missions, and even occasionally sat in on Cabinet meetings. Such was her influence that aides to President Carter sometimes privately referred to her as "co-president." In Washington, she became known as the “Steel Magnolia" for her outward shyness and inner strength.
Following Jimmy Carter's departure from the White House in 1981, Rosalynn and her husband founded The Carter Center, a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing human rights, promoting democracy, monitoring elections, advancing the rights of women and girls, and curing illness, including Guinea worm disease and malaria. The former first lady also established the eponymous Rosalynn Carter Institute for Caregivers in 1987, which supported caregivers and improved the quality of care for individuals with chronic illnesses and disabilities.
A devout Baptist, Carter was known for her grace, compassion, and determination. “There are only four kinds of people in this world,” she said. “Those who have been caregivers, those who are currently caregivers, those who will be caregivers, and those who will need caregivers.” Rosalynn herself passed through all these stages, living with dementia in the later years of her life.
There will be events to commemorate her life beginning Nov. 27, with a wreath-laying at Georgia Southwestern State University. The Carter family then invites members of the public to pay their respects from 6-10 pm as Rosalynn Carter lies in repose at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum. On Nov. 29, funeral services for family and friends will be held at Maranatha Baptist Church in Plains, Georgia, where the Carters worshipped for decades. The public is welcome to line the family motorcade route as it proceeds from the church to the Carter home, where Rosalynn Carter will be buried in the family plot.
The Carter Center has launched a portal for the public to reflect on her legacy of caring and perseverance.