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Biden's exit overshadows Netanyahu's US visit
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Biden dropping out of the presidential race overshadow Netanyahu's US visit?
Oh, was it happening today? I didn't notice, I was so busy focused on Biden dropping out. No, clearly, it is a massive benefit for Biden that it is now less of a deal. Probably means less demonstrations, means less media coverage. It is a big problem, right? I mean, you've got the US top ally in the Middle East, Israel, the leader is clearly disliked by Biden. Kamala Harris not showing up to preside over Senate. She's, you know, otherwise disposed at a prearranged meeting in Indianapolis. And then you've got Netanyahu going down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the guy that he wants to become president, former President Donald Trump. All of that is problematic for Biden but less problematic because US political news at home is so overwhelming and headline-worthy.
Can the China-brokered agreement between Hamas and Fatah help bring Palestinian peace?
Unclear. I mean, the fact that Hamas, which is seen as a terrorist organization, and rightly so in my view, by the United States, by most of the West, and certainly by Israel, now has a peace agreement with Fatah, definitely brings the Palestinians closer together. But frankly, since October 7th, the Palestinians have only become more radicalized as a population; just like in Israel, the Jews have become more radicalized as a population, both less interested in peace. The rest of the world is very interested in peace, but very hard to get from here to there. I do think there is a chance that we can still get that six-week agreement because the Knesset is going to be out of session until October, which means that Netanyahu doesn't have to worry about getting thrown out of office if he has a six-week agreement and goes back to fighting, the far right, by the time they could throw him out, the Knesset would be back in. That's interesting and worth looking at.
After a long hot summer of French politics, is the Olympics a rallying moment for Macron?
Not at all. He can't get a government together. That has proved very challenging for him. 2027 still looks like the end of centrism in France, at least for a while. Not going to stop me from watching the Olympics though.
Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the first Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Can China broker another Mideast rapprochement?
Mahmoud Abbas, the octogenarian head of the Palestinian Authority, doesn’t travel much these days. But this week he will head to China for a three-day visit and meet with President Xi Jinping.
Abbas’ trip comes after China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang recently told his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts that Beijing is ready to broker Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that have been on ice for almost a decade.
For China, hosting Abbas is a low-stakes way to project itself further as a rising Middle East powerbroker after Beijing (surprisingly) brokered a détente between archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year. The Chinese overture itself is less about backing Abbas and the Palestinian cause, and more about Beijing trying to send a message to Washington, yet again, that the US is no longer the key influence peddler in the region.
Still, there is more performance than substance behind this play. For one thing, the US is Israel’s closest — and most important — ally, and the Israelis would never allow Beijing to circumvent Washington as the main arbiter between Ramallah and Jerusalem.
What’s more, Abbas, who was elected to a four-year term in 2005 and has refused to hold elections, is a wildly unpopular figure at home, while the Palestinian Authority has an extremely weak mandate as other factions vie for power in the West Bank. Indeed, he is hardly in a prime position to conduct major diplomacy on behalf of the Palestinian people.