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Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a joint statement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
China’s delicate dance on Ukraine
Over 18 months of war, President Xi Jinping’s pledge of “friendship without limits” with Russia has repeatedly been tested. China blames the West for Russia’s invasion and continues to buy Russia’s oil at discount prices, but it has also refused to endorse Russian claims on Ukrainian land and offers itself as a neutral player that wants peace.
Last weekend, Saudi Arabia hosted more than 40 countries for talks on how to end the war. Russia, which was not invited, dismissed the gathering as pointless. But Chinese officials, who did attend, said those present helped to “consolidate international consensus” on peace and signaled a willingness to participate in more such meetings. Ukrainian officials hailed China’s words, the US welcomed its participation, and EU diplomats said China’s presence had underscored Russia’s deepening isolation.
On Monday, China and Russia each announced a phone call between Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov, their respective foreign ministers. Each side reported that the two men spoke about the war and their common interests. Neither side mentioned the weekend’s talks. China says Wang reiterated China’s intention to “uphold an independent and impartial stance” on the war. Russia says the call “once again confirmed the unity” of Russia and China.
China could lead a credible effort to end the war, but it would have to use its economic and political leverage to persuade both the Russian and Ukrainian governments to make concessions they’re still dead-set against making. It matters that China would show up for talks that its Russian friends weren’t invited to, but Ukraine remains a long way from sustainable peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The Saudis want to be peacemakers in Ukraine
The Ukraine diplomatic sweepstakes continue with representatives from more than 40 countries set to gather this weekend in the Saudi city of Jeddah to try and forge a path towards peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv will attend the conference, but Russia wasn’t invited – though the Kremlin says it’ll watch the shindig closely.
This event comes after a similar summit was held in Copenhagen in June. So how is this one different?
First, after balking at the Danes’ invite last time, China has now agreed to attend. That’s a big win for Ukraine, which knows that Beijing has Putin’s ear. It’s also a win for the Saudis, who want the conference to be viewed by the West and Russia alike as a serious diplomatic forum.
Given that China continues to buy copious amounts of Russian oil and gas, helping the Russian economy stay afloat despite Western sanctions, having Beiijng be part of a broader peace push is crucial.
“China is the one country that has both the carrots and the sticks that can persuade Putin and Zelensky to accept the tough-to-swallow compromises needed to make peace,” my colleague Willis Sparks recently wrote.
What’s more, a number of so-called non-aligned countries – including India, Brazil and South Africa – that have so far refused to acquiesce to Western demands that they ditch relations with the Kremlin, are also set to participate in the talks. Though they attended the summit in Copenhagen, the contours of this event will no doubt be different given that it’s being hosted by a country with close ties to the Kremlin. (To be sure, Denmark, an EU member state, is hardly a neutral arbiter.)
So, what’s on the agenda? There’s so far no blueprint for these talks, but Kyiv previously handed down a 10-point peace plan, which demands that Russia hand over occupied Ukrainian territory – a clear nonstarter for Moscow. The Ukrainian plan also calls for Russian troops to leave Ukraine before peace talks begin, something the Kremlin does not seem inclined to do.
For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is trying to rehabilitate his image after years of very bad PR and boost his profile as a legitimate international interlocutor, there’s a lot riding on this summit. Still, for now at least, Ukraine and Russia seem too far apart to imagine any significant progress.Xi Jinping during the China-Central Asia Summit in Xi'an.
Will China end Russia’s war?
China can end the war in Ukraine. Xi Jinping is the one major world leader that both Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky would gladly meet with. And China is the one country that has both the carrots and the sticks that can persuade Putin and Zelensky to accept the tough-to-swallow compromises needed to make peace.
China has leverage with Russia. Europe’s post-invasion refusal to buy Russian oil and gas sharply increases China’s importance as an energy buyer. In fact, China bought a record amount of Russian energy over the first half of this year, thanks in large part to the steeply discounted price the war has forced Russia to offer.
But China has more energy suppliers than Russia has alternative high-volume buyers. A Chinese decision to reduce those imports would hurt Russia far more than China. China is also a major supplier of computer chips and other products Russia badly needs and can’t buy elsewhere. These facts give Xi real leverage with Putin if he wants to use it.
Xi can tell his friend Putin that he must accept a peace deal that brings Russia a modest amount of Ukrainian land that he can use to declare “victory” in return for letting the rest of Ukraine go. Even if that means the remainder of Ukraine one day joins NATO and the EU.
Putin, of course, will oppose any such suggestion. But if Xi privately advises his friend that refusal means China will publicly distance itself from Russia’s invasion and apply heavy economic pressure on his government, Putin will have to listen. With China on board, Putin looks much more powerful. Were Xi to publicly back away, Putin would be far more isolated.
Xi can then promise that a peace deal with Ukraine will bring China and Russia economically and politically closer than ever before … and that China will pay to rebuild and modernize Russia’s war-depleted military.
From Xi’s point of view, pushing Putin toward peace isn’t a betrayal. It’s a credible plan to save Russia from a disastrous war before much more damage is done. He’s giving Putin the “off ramp” the Russian president can’t (or won’t) create for himself.
And if Putin isn’t ready to cut this deal now, wait through a few more months of military frustration with continuing Western support for Ukraine.
China has leverage with Ukraine. Xi can assure Zelensky that if Ukraine will make the hard choice to surrender the Donbas region and Crimea, that China can stop the war, invest billions in the country’s reconstruction, and free Ukraine to join Western clubs. (Let Ukraine and the West argue over when and how.)
Ukraine gets peace, a European security guarantee, underwritten by Chinese infrastructure investment, and a new lease on life as an independent nation with powerful friends and allies.
Xi can use this plan to divide Europe from the United States, an outcome that expands China’s global influence. Most European leaders would surely cheer an end to the war and reconstruction of Ukraine that Europe doesn’t have to pay for.
US officials would not look happily on China’s ability to make new friends and extend its influence in Europe, but Washington would be hard-pressed to block a peace plan that everyone else favors.
China can use this plan to enhance its reputation as a leader and peacemaker around the world. The Americans could not have made this deal, Xi can fairly claim. Only China has the power and the will to stop this terrible war, ending the pressure the war creates on food and energy supplies and prices for poor countries and stopping the killing of innocents.
That’s a huge propaganda win for Beijing. At a time of frustratingly slow economic growth at home, Xi can use that win.
Xi has already shown he wants to play peacemaker. He brokered a minor deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran this spring, and he has already offered a sketch of a Ukraine peace plan, though its current form lacks the detail needed to make it credible. Xi has even been understanding in response to a Russian strike on Ukrainian cities last week that destroyed a facility that contained grain reportedly destined for export to China and damaged a Chinese consulate building.
Obviously, as with any plan to end a war, several hundred devils lurk in the details. But Xi has real leverage, even with Putin, if he wants to use it. What’s stopping him?