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Wheat harvesting in Kyiv, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: A grain of truth & a win for Biden
No pain no grain
Russia and Ukraine are hardly beating their swords into plowshares, but at least the fruits of the harvest are once again on the move from Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa. Earlier this week saw the departure of the first grain boat from there since the signing of a tenuous new export security deal between Ukraine, Turkey, the UN, and Russia. The return of Ukrainian grain to world markets is welcome news for countries that depend heavily on the country’s exports, as well as for broader food prices around the globe. But it will take months to get back to pre-war export levels, warns the Ukrainian government. The next few weeks will see only about half a dozen departures compared to the normal level of about 200 every August. A big question looms: the first boats to leave Odesa will be ones that were stuck there for months, but it’s unclear whether a large number of grain traders will be willing to take the immense financial and insurance risk of sending fresh boats to Odesa. GZERO reader Jonathan Grange, a grain trader at Sunstone Brokers in Switzerland, tells us that a fully laden grain boat is worth about $70 million — “who,” he asks, “wants to assume the risk of a Russian misfire on this value?”
Will Biden get a boost?
Republican and Democratic voters agree on very little these days, but there will be no love lost in America for Ayman al-Zawahri, the al-Qaida heavyweight and key plotter of the 9/11 attacks killed by a US drone strike in Kabul over the weekend. The killing of Osama bin Laden’s successor gave President Joe Biden a chance to present himself as an elder statesman Monday night, when he announced the counterterrorism coup during a rare primetime address. This comes after a few weeks of good PR for Biden, who has scored a number of legislative wins, including getting Congressional approval for a massive legislative package to bolster US competitiveness in semiconductors and other advanced tech. The White House is also very close to getting the country’s most ambitious ever climate legislation passed by Congress. But Biden is waiting on Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who sometimes bucks her party on key legislation, to come out in support of the bill. (Given the Dems’ razor-thin Senate majority, there can be no party holdouts.) Does this signal a change of fortune for Biden, whose approval rating has tanked amid a series of international and domestic crises? It’s too early to say, but if Congress passes his $369 billion climate bill, Democrats will certainly be in a stronger position heading into midterm elections this fall.
Supporters of Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr storm the parliament building in Baghdad, Iraq.
What We're Watching: Iraqis storm parliament, US nears landmark climate deal, Senegal set to vote
Anti-Iran protesters storm Iraq’s parliament
Hundreds of Iraqi protesters breached Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone on Wednesday and stormed the parliament. The demonstrators – supporters of Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc won the most seats in parliamentary elections last fall – chanted anti-Iran slogans as they rummaged through paperwork and took selfies. Crucially, they rallied against the candidacy of Mohammed al-Sudani, a former minister backed by a pro-Iran alliance, to become the next PM. For almost a year, Tehran-aligned parties have prevented al-Sadr from forming a new government, prompting the cleric’s 73 lawmakers to resign en masse last month in protest, and plunging the crisis-ridden country further into political and social turmoil. As a result, the pro-Iran bloc became the biggest parliamentary faction … by default. The demonstrators have since disbursed, but temperatures are rising in a country where joblessness and popular disillusionment are sky-high. What’s more, al-Sadr has proven adept at whipping his supporters into a frenzy in recent months, suggesting that instability in Iraq is likely to get much worse.
A historic US climate breakthrough?
Democrats appear to have forged a landmark deal to combat climate change. The $369 billion investment and tax package has been greeted ecstatically by climate activists in the US and around the globe, but it’s being condemned by Republicans who warn it will further fuel inflation. Key to the breakthrough: plans to use tax incentives, rather than relying more heavily on government spending, to boost wind, solar, geothermal, battery, and other clean energy industries. Why is this potentially such a big deal? Given the size of its economy and the scale of its carbon emissions, there can be no global breakthrough in the fight against climate change without active leadership and major investment from the United States. Based on past voting patterns of US lawmakers, it’s clear there can be no climate leadership and major investment unless Democrats hold the White House and have majorities in both houses of Congress. November’s US midterm elections will likely give Republicans control of at least one house of Congress, and President Biden’s abysmal approval ratings give the GOP an excellent shot in 2024. The breakthrough came when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) appeared to drop previous opposition to the scale of this plan. He says his fears that the package will further stoke inflation have been addressed. There’s still a wildcard: Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), the other Democrat who sometimes bucks her party on big legislation, hasn’t yet made her position clear.