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House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks to the media following the passage of spending legislation to avert a government shutdown, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, on Dec. 20, 2024.
US averts shutdown but offers preview of Trump 2.0
US lawmakers early Saturday struck an 11th-hour deal to avert a government shutdown. On Friday, the House voted overwhelmingly to pass a stopgap spending bill after a week of chaos on Capitol Hill in which President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk intervened to scuttle two earlier bipartisan bills. The Senate followed suit shortly after midnight.
The final measure passed on Friday funds the government through March, includes $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers, and earmarks $100 billion in fresh disaster relief funds. It doesn’t include Trump’s demand to suspend the debt ceiling, which limits how much the federal government can borrow.
Three things are immediately clear from this week:
First, Elon Musk has real government power even without a real government position. Musk’s extensive criticisms of the initial bill’s length and contents, some of which included false or misleading claims, shaped the politics immediately, sinking the first version of the spending bill. Musk does not hold an elected or even an official post, but with his 208 million followers on X, which he owns, he hardly needs to.
Trump’s grip on the GOP is hardly complete. The president-elect could not force his party to accept the idea of scrapping the debt ceiling, which would have given him substantially more spending room during his first two years in office. Instead, lawmakers pledged to take up the issue separately once he is in office.
This week was a preview. With a bold and controversial Trump policy agenda, a slim House GOP majority, and another hugely influential risk cook in the kitchen, the past few days offer a window into what legislating may often look like beginning in January. Buckle up.Representatives on Capitol Hill spent all day Thursday scrambling to cobble together a deal to keep the government open, after pressure from President-elect Donald Trump sank must-pass legislation on Wednesday.
Trump hurls Congress headlong toward a government shutdown
Representatives on Capitol Hill spent all day Thursday scrambling to cobble together a deal to keep the government open, after pressure from President-elect Donald Trump and his billionaire ally Elon Musk sank must-pass legislation on Wednesday.
If lawmakers can’t agree and pass a continuing resolution — legalese for kicking the financial can down the road — by the end of the day on Friday, the government will shut down. Late on Thursday, Republicans presented a deal that Trump called a “SUCCESS,” while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called it “laughable” and insisted the caucus would not support anything but the originally negotiated plan.
While the new plan would fund federal agencies through March 14, and preserve provisions for disaster relief and farm aid, it also gives Trump a major concession. The bill would suspend America’s debt ceiling from Jan. 1, 2025, to Jan. 30, 2027, giving the president a break through his first round of midterm elections. Without Democratic votes, Republicans don’t have the numbers to pass the bill.
If the deal falls through, millions of Americans will see their government benefits halted, the military will work without pay, and much of the federal government will be furloughed just ahead of the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays.
We’re watching how Congress hammers its way out of this dilemma, but longer term, we have our eye on the influence of Musk, whose social media rampage — over 150 posts starting before dawn on Wednesday — kicked off this maelstrom.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., withdrew his bid to become attroney general on Nov. 21 over continuing allegations of sexual impropriety. President-elect Donald Trump appointed him on Nov. 13, 2024.
Gaetz becomes first Trump nominee to crash out
Matt Gaetz announced Thursday that after meeting with senators, he would not go through with the nomination process to become Donald Trump’s attorney general, claiming he did not wish to be a “distraction.” In other words, at least four GOP senators couldn’t approve a man in the midst of a federal sex-trafficking investigation and accused of sex with a minor to lead the Justice Department. Gaetz’s nomination lasted just 0.8 Scaramuccis.
Trump on Thursday swiftly announced a new pick for attorney general after Gaetz stepped aside, tapping former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to be the nation's top law enforcement official. Bondi is a Trump loyalist who was part of his defense team during his first impeachment trial.
What happens to Gaetz now? He resigned from his congressional seat last week, in part to prevent an ethics report on his alleged sex crimes from reaching the light of day. That doesn’t mean Washington has seen the last of him, however, as he merely indicated he did not intend to take his oath of office for the next session of Congress. He still may be within his rights to show up and take his seat if he wishes … though that ethics report could come back into play.
Gaetz isn’t the only Trump nominee with troubling sexual allegations. Fox News host Pete Hesgeth, tapped to lead the Defense Department, is under fire over a 2017 incident in Monterey, California, in which he allegedly physically blocked a woman from leaving his hotel room, took her phone away, and raped her. Hesgeth was not charged with a crime and claims the encounter was consensual, but he entered into a settlement agreement with his accuser that included an undisclosed monetary payment. We’re watching to see if it knocks his nomination off course.Republican candidate for US Senate Bernie Moreno celebrates his victory over Sherrod Brown at his election night party at the La Centre Conference & Banquet Facility in Westlake, Ohio, a Cleveland suburb, on November 5, 2024.
Republicans regain control of the Senate, and could go on to take it all
Republicans retook control of the Senate on Tuesday night, with crucial victories in West Virginia and Ohio giving the GOP at least 51 seats in the upper chamber.
Republican Jim Justice was projected to win in West Virginia, snatching an open seat that was vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin, who was a Democrat before becoming an independent. In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno was projected to win against incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
The GOP needed just two seats to flip the Senate, and could still increase their majority with results still coming in from other competitive states: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
That said, there are not enough open seats for the GOP to reach the 60-vote threshold that is necessary to advance most legislation, meaning they’ll still have to work with Democrats on most initiatives.
Meanwhile, control of the House remains up in the air. Out of 435 seats up for grabs, Republicans have won 198 so far, while Democrats have won 180. It could take days or weeks to get the full results.
The U.S. Capitol dome is seen in the morning sun in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023.
Is Congress headed for a “double flip?”
US presidential elections may overshadow Congressional contests, but which party controls the House and Senate is critical in determining what a president can and can’t do during their time in office. The presidential race is close, with just 25 days to go before Election Day, and the White House is either party’s to win.
Congress, however, may be headed for a “double flip,” with Republicans on pace to retake the Senate from Democrats but lose the House, which they currently control. If that should happen, it would be the first time in US history.
Experts say a double flip could produce extraordinary gridlock, which, in the current political environment, is saying something.
Eight close Senate races out of the 34 seats up for election this time around are set to determine who controls that chamber. In the House, the Cook Report projects 26 toss-up seats and that 16 lean seats are up for grabs, meaning 42 or fewer elections out of 435 could have an outsized effect on the next Congress – and the next White House.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Foreign Relations Chair, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), applaud as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., July 24, 2024.
Netanyahu tries to have it both ways
A day after his address to Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting today with President Joe Biden and, separately, with Vice President Kamala Harris.
The relationship between Netanyahu and the White House was already strained, and his Wednesday speech couldn’t have helped. Harris skipped the address and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who sat it out along with roughly half of the Democratic House and Senate caucuses, called it “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”
Netanyahu repeatedly made misleading or untrue statements and struck a critical tone and spent more time praising the Trump administration than Biden’s. He called protesters outside the Capitol “Iran’s useful idiots.”
Nonetheless, both Biden and Harris have gone out of their way to make it clear they support Israel, despite their patience with its prime minister wearing thin. In February, Biden described Israel’s attacks in Gaza as “over the top.”
Even as the death toll in Gaza approaches 40,000, there’s no way the US will abandon Israel, even if the Democrats give Netanyahu a bit of a cold shoulder and a few critical worlds. But amid an escalating tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the US is also wary of seeing the war in Gaza spiral into a regional conflict — and the Biden administration has signaled that it would be harder to provide back-up for the Jewish state if this happens.
Along these lines, the White House is likely to once again convey to Netanyahu that it’s time for the war in Gaza to end.
FILE PHOTO: The International Criminal Court building is seen in The Hague, Netherlands, January 16, 2019.
Hard Numbers: ICC Sanctions, Legislative deadlock, Fading free speech, Attacks on health workers, Mexico campaign tragedy
37: At least 37 members of the House of Representatives are co-sponsoring a bill that would sanction prosecutors and staff at the International Criminal Court involved in applying for arrest warrants against senior Israeli leaders. The bill was introduced by a Republican member, but the Biden administration has expressed support. The president called the warrant applications “outrageous,” and Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised to work with Congress on the issue.
0.37: If the above bill does pass, it would be remarkable because just 0.37% of all the bills introduced in the 118th Congress have become laws. That passage rate is the lowest since the 1990-1991 Congress, during which Newt Gingrich executed his first government shutdown.
53: A sharp rise in restrictions on free speech and expression globally left 53% of all humans unable to speak freely last year, up from 34% in 2022, according to Article 19, an advocacy group. The big culprits? Crackdowns in India, home to the world’s largest population, and a deterioration of freedoms in Ethiopia, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Mongolia. It’s not all bad news though: Article 19 specifically praised Brazil’s progress on freedom of expression after former President Jair Bolsonaro left power.
2,500: Researchers at Safeguarding Health in Conflict, a coalition of nongovernmental organizations, recorded over 2,500 attacks on healthcare workers who struggled to look after patients in conflict zones in 2023, a 25% increase from 2022. Researchers attributed the jump to new wars in Gaza and Sudan while older wars in places like Ukraine and Myanmar continue unabated.
9: A stage at a campaign rally collapsed in high winds in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, last night, killing at least nine people, including a child. Scores more were injured at the event featuring presidential long-shot candidate Jorge Álvarez Máynez. The country is in campaign mode ahead of the June 2 presidential, state, and municipal elections. Máynez has suspended upcoming events in response to the tragedy.
Chuck Schumer’s light-touch plan for AI
Over the past year, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has led the so-called AI Gang, a group of senators eager to study the effects of artificial intelligence on society and curb the threats it poses through regulation. But calling this group a gang implies a certain level of toughness that was nowhere to be found in the roadmap it unveiled on May 15.
Announcing the 31-page roadmap, a bipartisan set of policy priorities for Congress, Schumer bragged of “months of discussion,” “hundreds of meetings,” and “nine first-of-their-kind AI Insight Forums,” including sessions with OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg.
What he delivered, however, was more of a spending plan than a vision for real regulation – the policy proposals were limited, and the approach was hands-off. The roadmap called for $32 billion over the next three years for artificial intelligence-related spending for research and innovation. It offered suggestions, such as a federal data privacy law, legislation to curb deepfakes in elections, and a ban on “social scoring” like the social credit system that China has tested.
Civil society groups aren’t pleased
The long list of proposals is “no substitute for enforceable law – and these companies certainly know the difference, especially when the window to see anything into legislation is swiftly closing,” the AI Now Institute’s Amba Kak and Sarah Myers West wrote in a statement. Maya Wiley, CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, wrote that “the framework’s focus on promoting innovation and industry overshadows the real-world harms that could result from AI systems.”
Ronan Murphy of the Center for European Policy Analysis wrote that the gap between the US and EU approaches to AI could not be more stark. “US lawmakers believe it is premature to restrain fast-moving AI innovation,” he wrote. “In contrast, the EU’s AI Act bans facial recognition applications and tools that exhibit racial or other discrimination.”
Former White House technology advisor Suresh Venkatasubramaniantweeted that the proposal felt so unoriginal and recycled that it might have been written by ChatGPT.
An AI law is unlikely this year
Adam Conner, vice president of tech policy at the Center for American Progress, said that while the roadmap has some areas of substance, such as urging a federal data privacy law, “most sections are light on details.” He called the $32 billion spending proposal a “detailed wish list” for upcoming funding bills.
It was a thin result for something that took so long to cook up, he said, and “leaves little time on the calendar this year for substantive AI legislation, except for the funding bills Congress must pass this year and possibly the recently introduced bipartisan bicameral American Privacy Rights Act data privacy bill.” This means any other AI legislation will likely have to wait until next year. “Whether that was the plan all along is an open question,” Conner added.
Danny Hague, assistant director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, agreed that it’s unlikely anything comprehensive gets passed this year. But he doesn’t necessarily see the report as a sign that the US will be hands-off with legislation. He said the Senate Working Group likely realizes that “time is limited,” and there are already “structures in place — regulatory agencies and the congressional committees that oversee them — to act on AI quickly.”
Jon Lieber, managing director for the United States for Eurasia Group, said he didn’t understand why an AI Gang was necessary at all. “I’m confused why Schumer felt the need to do something here,” he said. “This process should have been handled by a senate committee, not the leaders office.
Such a soft line from Congress means that until further notice, President Joe Biden — who has issued an executive order, export controls, and CHIPS Act funding to create jobs, secure tech infrastructure, and directed his agencies to get up to speed on AI — might just be the AI regulator in chief.