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Could Russia invade the Baltics next?
Baltic leaders have few illusions that once Putin is done with Ukraine he won't look to his northwest neighbors next. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže addresses concerns about a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic states, saying that such a move would be an entirely new ballgame and would mean direct war with NATO; even still, Braže says, no scenario should be ruled out. “The task for all of us is not to exclude anything. So to be ready, to be prepared, to exercise, to test, and to make sure it doesn’t happen,” she says.
Braže underscores the importance of NATO’s deterrence strategy, stressing that the alliance must demonstrate both strength and resolve to prevent any miscalculations from Moscow. Beyond conventional military threats, she highlights the dangers of hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks and disinformation, as key battlegrounds in the ongoing struggle between Russia and the West.
Watch full episode: The fight to decide Ukraine's fate
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The fight to decide Ukraine's fate
As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, the Baltic states—Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania—are watching their eastern neighbor with growing concern. With cyberattacks, undersea sabotage, and military buildup along its border, Latvia is at the forefront of Europe’s efforts to counter Russian aggression. On GZERO World, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže joins Ian Bremmer in New York to discuss Ukraine's fate, the region’s security challenges, the role of NATO, and how Trump’s evolving stance on Russia could leave European in the lurch.
Also on the show, Bremmer speaks with former Russian colonel Dmitri Trenin, who offers a starkly different perspective from Moscow, arguing that negotiations over Ukraine should be decided primarily by the US and Russia—not Ukraine or Europe.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
A Baltic warning: What Ukraine war means for Europe—and the Russian perspective
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we're bringing you two starkly different views on Ukraine's future and European security. First, Ian Bremmer speaks with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže about the growing security threats facing the Baltics—from cyberattacks and disinformation to undersea sabotage in the Baltic Sea. When an oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet recently severed a vital power cable between Estonia and Finland, it was a stark reminder of how hybrid warfare is playing out beyond the battlefield. Braže warns that Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine, aiming to weaken US alliances and destabilize Europe. She also pushes back against claims that Ukraine's NATO ambitions provoked the war, calling them “complete nonsense,” and outlines why Latvia is boosting its defense spending to 5% of GDP.
The conversation then shifts to Moscow, where Bremmer speaks with former Russian colonel and ex-Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin. Once considered a pro-Western voice, Trenin’s views now align closely with the Kremlin. He argues that the fate of Ukraine should be decided primarily by Russia and the United States—not Ukraine or Europe.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Russia’s next target? Why the Baltics are wary of Putin
How far will Russia go to reassert its influence? This question has haunted Europe for decades. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was supposed to mark a turning point, but for the Baltic nations—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the shadow of Russian aggression has never truly lifted.
Fast forward to Christmas Day of 2024, when a rickety oil tanker flying the flag of the Cook Islands was caught dragging an 11-ton anchor along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland, severing a critical power cable between Estonia and Finland. Finnish authorities boarded the ship, confiscating 100,000 barrels of illicit Russian oil. EU officials believe the vessel was part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—aging tankers used to evade sanctions. Some of those same ships, they warn, may also be engaging in acts of sabotage.
Energy infrastructure isn’t the only target. Cyber warfare has long been part of Russia’s playbook. A 2007 cyberattack on Estonia, widely attributed to Moscow, was an early warning of how modern warfare would evolve. Today, those threats have only intensified. Google’s intelligence experts have recently identified Russia’s elite hacking unit, Sandworm, probing Baltic energy grids for weaknesses—the same strike team that has repeatedly shut down power across Ukraine.
It’s no wonder that Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania now spend more on defense, as a percentage of GDP, than most NATO members. Latvia, for example, has boosted its defense budget from under 1% of GDP in 2014 to a projected 5% by 2026. That’s a figure high enough to impress even US President Donald Trump. And as President Trump signals a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow—softening relations while berating Ukraine’s leadership—the question isn’t just how far Putin will go, but will the West be able to stop him?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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A man holds a laptop computer as cyber code is projected on him in this illustration of a hacker.
Hard Numbers: Hacks galore, Hollywood dreams, US on top, Pokémon Go scan the world
3 million: Evidently, there’s hot demand for AI-related scripts in Hollywood. A thriller about artificial intelligence from a relatively unknown screenwriter named Natan Dotan just sold for $1.25 million, a number that will rise to $3 million if it’s turned into a film. Despite Hollywood’s perennial discomfort with AI infiltrating the film industry, maybe all of the hubbub has got them thinking that audiences will turn out for a good old-fashioned AI thriller.
36: Stanford researchers analyzed the AI capabilities of 36 countries and determined that the US significantly leads in most of the 42 areas studied — including research, private investment, and notable machine learning models. China, which leads in patents and journal citations, came in second, followed by the UK, India, and the UAE.
10 million: Niantic, the developer of the augmented reality game Pokémon Go, announced that it’s building an AI model to make a 3D world map using location data submitted by the game’s users. The company said it already has 10 million scanned locations.
The devastating impact of cyberattacks and how to protect against them
Imagine one day you found out someone had hacked your phone. What would that mean for your life? With the right software, the bad guys might be able to get into your bank account, surveil your messages, or even steal your fingerprints and facial scans.
That's what happened to human rights attorney David Haigh, who became the first-known British victim of the powerful Pegasus spyware in 2021 while trying to help women of Emirati and Jordanian royalty escape alleged abuse. He learned that his phone was under surveillance – so his communications and the information stored on the device were compromised.
Two years on, he still lives in fear for the privacy of his loved ones and clients. "The police have done nothing,” he says. “There's no support from the government. There's no real information.”
Emerging technologies threaten to make the already-bleak cybersecurity environment all the more treacherous, opening new avenues of attack that could cost countries, companies, and individuals dearly without proactive measures.
Eurasia Group Senior Analyst Ali Wyne moderated a discussion on cybersecurity as part of “Caught in the Digital Crosshairs,” a video series on cybersecurity produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft and the CyberPeace Institute. The discussion focused on the blurring lines between attacks on governments and the private sector.
Wyne spoke with Kaja Ciglic, senior director of digital diplomacy at Microsoft, who referred to cybersecurity as “the defining challenge of our times.” The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have coincided with spikes in both cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns, which Ciglic called “harrowing examples of what can happen and how people can use technology to manipulate others into actions.”
Even in peacetime, states are investing in capabilities that can target critical infrastructure, schools, and hospitals, preparing for a new dimension of conflict. And in the private sector, hackers are exploiting lagging private-sector preparedness to grow and evolve.
Hacking is big business, with companies specializing in helping clients break into accounts. While these are usually about making financial gains, says Stéphane Duguin, CEO of the Cyber Peace Institute, his organization has seen a marked shift over the past two years. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the institute has tracked a marked increase in attacks on humanitarian organizations, even those that have little to do with the conflict.
“At the end of the day, you end up having civilians who cannot benefit from essential services because of what has been escalated into another part of the world,” he said.
The attacks impact organizations more profoundly than one might think. Bonnie Leff, senior vice president of corporate security at MasterCard, said that when one suffers a cyber attack, “the impact to an NGO can really almost shut it down.” It leaves organizations unable to pay staff or run programs and can damage their reputation with donors, leaving them worse off in the long term.
- Hackers, innovation, malice & cybercrime ›
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- Podcast: Cyber Mercenaries and the digital “wild west" ›
- How cyberattacks hurt people in war zones - GZERO Media ›
- How rogue states use cyberattacks to undermine stability - GZERO Media ›
- Why snooping in your private life is big business - GZERO Media ›
Estonia's digital revolution: a global model of efficiency
In a recent GZERO livestream event presented by Visa, Carmen Raal, a digital transformation advisor and expert from e-Estonia, shared some remarkable insights into the nation's digital transformation. Estonia, often hailed as a digital pioneer, has undergone a profound digitalization process that sets it apart on the global stage. Carmen explained that 99.99% of Estonia’s public services are accessible online, which includes a strong collaboration between the nations’ public and private sectors. Raal points out how this unique partnership has created solutions that are versatile and user-friendly. One example is Estonia's electronic identity and signature system which isn't limited to government use; it extends to online banking across all banks in Estonia.
The emphasis on simplicity has been key to encouraging widespread adoption of digital solutions. This also includes the process of setting up a company in Estonia. Raal highlights that it takes less than three hours to establish a company online, and the world record is a just a hair over 15 minutes. According to Raal, this efficiency, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, has positioned Estonia as an administrative haven, attracting entrepreneurs from around the world under the concept of e-residency, which allows individuals worldwide to obtain a digital identity card, granting them the ability to run an Estonian company without physical presence in the country. This offers access to the European single market, showcasing Estonia's commitment to fostering a global digital community. Raal highlights how Estonia's digital journey underscores the transformative potential of embracing technology, not only for enhancing efficiency but also for fueling economic growth and innovation.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream conversation:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
Introducing Patching the System, a new podcast series
As part of the Global Stage series, a partnership between Microsoft and GZERO Media, the podcast series “Patching the System” will explore the biggest cyber risks and challenges for governments, corporations, and consumers alike. Through the Cybersecurity Tech Accord, a public commitment from more than 150 technology companies, private sector tech leaders are working to create solutions and foster greater cyber resilience.