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Surprise, Vladimir Putin: Why Ukrainians resisted Russian "liberation"
Vladimir Putin has made many mistakes in Ukraine, but for political scientist Ivan Krastev, the biggest one was thinking Ukrainians would welcome the Russian invasion.
Perhaps he expected it would be like when he annexed Crimea, but Ukraine clearly did not want to be "liberated," Krastev tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Why? For one thing, he says that Ukrainian public opinion toward Russia has changed a lot since 2014. For another, Putin loves to talk about feeling humiliated but he cares little about humiliating others.
And then there's how Ukrainians and Russians feel differently about the state.
Russians, Krastev explains, believe in a strong state above a strong society, while Ukrainians want the people come before the state — which explains why Russians have traditionally misread Ukraine.
Watch the GZERO World episode: How Putin created Ukraine’s determination to resist
Russia escalates in Donbas in push to take eastern Ukraine
As Russia is launching a new phase of war, will eastern Ukraine fall? What is the West's last resort if the war further escalates? With US airlines dropping mask requirements for passengers, is this a bold move? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
As Russia is launching a new phase of war, will eastern Ukraine fall?
Well, first of all, they said they were going to launch the new phase like a few weeks ago. What gives? It's like weeks for the new phase but yeah, they're now really moving into military escalation across the Donbas. Remember, this is the territory that the Russians have declared, recognized as independent. It's about two-thirds more than the territory they had occupied from 2014 until just before the war started, February 24th. And yeah, the Russians clearly have learned some lessons from mistakes that were made in the last eight weeks of the war. They've got new leadership on the ground. They've sent some additional troops, but they also have poor morale. The troops have been depleted and the Ukrainians have an awful lot of military capability. I'll tell you, I think it's very unlikely that east Ukraine will fall by May 9th, which is when Putin wants to make his announcement of victory on Victory Day. I think eventually yes, it's more likely than not that eastern Ukraine will fall, but this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And that's a very sad thing.
What is the West's last resort if the war further escalates?
Well, I mean the biggest thing that the West can do is Europe can cut off all of the remaining energy that they're getting from Russia, which is continuing to fund the war. And the problem is that that's going to happen anyway. I mean if the Russians use chemical weapons or, God forbid, or if the Russians decide that they're going to engage in just scorched earth across major Ukrainian cities like they have in Mariupol. Maybe it happens faster. If they don't, then it happens over another year, two years. But if you're Russia, does that really change the way you think about your relationship with the West or your behavior on the ground? It probably doesn't. So, I mean, short of the West actually engaging in the war directly, a no-fly zone or troops on the ground, there's really very little additional that they can do. And that's part of the reason why it's unlikely that the Russians are going to change their behavior in any way here. It's hard to come up with a deterrent effect.
With US airlines dropping mask requirements for passengers, is this a bold move?
No, it's not a bold move, it's a stupid move in the sense that it was made arbitrarily by a Trump-appointed justice on the ground in Florida. It's a horrible way to actually decide that you're suddenly getting rid of a mandate. I personally think that the implementation of the mandates has been pretty arbitrary. It's been badly enforced. It's not N95 or KN95 masks, people wearing bandanas for Christ's sake. And they're on an hour-long shuttle to Washington DC and they're having drinks while they're barely wearing masks at all. So, it doesn't feel very effective to me. And in that regard with all the vaccines we have, this is not something that I'm worked up about. I'm kind of glad they're gone. I understand that given how nuts everyone has been over the pandemic the last two years and how politicized it's gotten that people are angry. But no, I don't think it's a bold move. I think it's just one more thing that shows that the United States does not have its political shit in order if you don't mind, because we are just so politically divided and dysfunctional. It's yet one more example of that.
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Putin greets Orbán during their meeting at the Kremlin in 2018.
What We’re Watching: Hungary hearts Russian gas, Israeli government in trouble, Ukrainian exodus
Hungry for Russian gas, Budapest will pay in rubles
Fresh off his decisive election victory last weekend, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán broke with the rest of the EU on a key point of pressure against Moscow on Wednesday, saying he’s ready to pay for Russian natural gas in rubles if the Kremlin asks him to. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently threatened to cut off gas entirely to the EU — which relies on Russia for 40 percent of its supplies — unless member states pay for the stuff using Russian currency. Although the Brussels says no way, it’s ultimately up to each individual country to decide what it wants to do. Orbán, among the most Russia-friendly leaders in the EU, also runs a country that depends entirely on Kremlin-exported gas. Still, while Budapest may be going rogue against the rest of the EU on this, it wouldn’t make much of a financial difference for Moscow: Hungary accounts for just 3% of Russia’s gas exports to the continent. Meanwhile, stricter US sanctions — which include Russia’s largest bank since Wednesday — are pushing the country closer to a technical default on its sovereign debt.
Is Israel headed for yet another election?
Things had been going surprisingly well for Israel’s PM Naftali Bennett and his ideologically diverse governing coalition, which many anticipated would collapse immediately after coming to power last summer. But things just got a lot more precarious for Bennett, head of the right-wing Yamina Party. On Wednesday, his coalition lost its parliamentary majority when party whip Idit Silman defected to the opposition (leaving a 60-60 split). Silman was reportedly lured over by the head of the opposition and former PM Bibi Netanyahu. Bennett is now in damage control mode, trying to stave off any more defections. For now, the government can survive without a majority – though it won’t be able to pass any serious legislation. More defections could lead to a no-confidence vote and a fresh election, which would be the fifth in three years. Bennett won’t have much power but can cruise along. The question is, for how long?