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Daniel Noboa
Noboa wins, but Correa remains at heart of Ecuador’s political crisis
On Sunday, Ecuadorians elected their youngest-ever president, businessman Daniel Noboa, amid deep political rifts that exacerbate a growing security crisis in the small Andean nation.
Ecuador has become a major export route for drugs destined for Europe, and cartels brought their bloody tactics across the borders of Colombia and Peru. In July and August, three politicians, including outspoken anti-drug presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, were assassinated in separate incidents. The number of violent deaths in Ecuador doubled to over 4,600 between 2021 and 2022 and is set to break another record this year.
But layered on top of the crisis is the deep social divide over left-wing former President Rafael Correa. This weekend’s election was triggered when erstwhile President Guillermo Lasso — the first conservative president since Correa was elected in 2007 — resigned and dissolved Congress in the face of impeachment proceedings. Correa, who moved to Belgium after leaving office in 2017, was convicted of corruption charges in 2020.
Eurasia Group’s Director for Latin America, Risa Grais-Targow, says that Noboa’s careful positioning on correismo (the political ideology related to Correa), more than campaign promises about security or the economy, helped him win.
“The strength of his candidacy stemmed from the fact that he's a political newcomer who focused his campaign on appealing to the segment of the population that neither identifies as correista nor anti-correista,” she says.
Still, it may be hard for Noboa to deliver for those middle-of-the-road voters. His team’s political resumés run a little short, and he’ll have to cobble together a coalition in the legislature to get anything done. His party holds just 13 seats — well short of the 70-seat majority.
What’s more, Grais-Targow said Noboa can’t avoid the issue of Correa forever — with fresh elections for a full term scheduled for February 2025, everyone will be back on the campaign trail soon. That said, defeated correista candidate Luisa Gonzalez said her party would work with Noboa in Congress in her concession speech.
“The correistas still have an agenda related to former President Rafael Correa's legal cases,” says Grais-Targow. “They may be willing to support certain aspects of Noboa’s agenda in Congress, where they're going to actually have the largest share of seats, in exchange for giving them more sway over key institutional appointments that could shape the future of Correa's legal problems.”
Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez speaks during a presidential election night event, in Quito, Ecuador, on Aug. 20, 2023.
González leads, but a runoff looms in Ecuador
After an election marred by a high level of violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavencio, Ecuadorian voters have set the stage for a runoff between left-wing candidate Luisa González and political outsider Daniel Noboa, the scion of a major banana business. With 75% of the votes tallied, González leads Noboa 33% to 24%.
To win, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or 40% support with a 10-point lead over their closest rival.
Should González win the runoff, the country risks remaining under the influence of disgraced former President Rafael Correa, whom González pledged to retain as an advisor. Since 2017, Correa has lived abroad in Belgium, allowing him to escape his 2020 prison sentence for corruption.
Villavicencio, a former journalist, had harshly criticized Correa and was credited with contributing to his conviction. Known for brazenly calling out corruption, organized crime, and drug traffickers, Villavicencio – who was not leading the pack when he was assassinated – was killed in a hail of bullets after a rally on Aug. 9. Six Colombian nationals have been arrested in connection with his murder.
Other politicians have also been murdered in recent months, but violence has not been limited to politics: Ecuador saw 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, a nearly 75% jump on the number of murders reported in the first half of 2022. That year ended with the highest number of violent deaths in Ecuador’s history, 4,600, double the total of the previous year – with the uptick blamed on drug trafficking and corruption.
On Sunday, some 100,000 police were dispatched to keep order on election day. A runoff vote will now be held in October. Whoever wins will face the challenge not only of reducing violence but restoring voter confidence in a shaken populace.Soldiers patrol an area next a road prior to Sunday's presidential election, in Quito, Ecuador.
Violence rages days before Ecuador's presidential vote
Less than a week after a presidential candidate was shot on the campaign trail in Quito, Ecuador’s capital, another politician was assassinated on Tuesday in the northern province of Esmeralda.
Pedro Briones, a local leader of the Revolución Ciudadana Party, was killed by a gunman on Tuesday, though details about the attacker remain scarce.
This comes just days after Fernando Villavicencio, an anti-crime warrior, was shot and killed ahead of the presidential ballot on Aug. 20. What’s more, in recent weeks, Agustín Intriago, the mayor of Manta, Ecuador’s third largest city, was also assassinated.
While there doesn’t appear to be a direct connection between these events, together they demonstrate the depths of the gang-related crime problem sweeping the country – which now has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America.
Looking ahead: The killing of Villavicencio is having a significant impact on the vote. While Luisa Gonzales of the progressive Citizen Revolution Movement is still ahead in the polls, her chances of winning outright in a first round (reaping 50% of the vote) are dropping fast as some voters appear to blame her party (which long clashed with Villavicencio) for her rival’s demise. A competitive runoff would likely be held in October.Guillermo Lasso and his wife Maria de Lourdes Alcivar react after Lasso wins Ecuador's presidential runoff vote.
What We’re Watching: Andean election results, China’s vaccine effectiveness
Andean aftermath: Two big weekend elections in South America produced two stunning results. In Ecuador's presidential runoff, the center-right former banker Guillermo Lasso upset early frontrunner Andrés Arauz, a leftist handpicked by former president Rafael Correa. Lasso will take power amid the social and economic devastation of the pandemic and will have to reckon with the rising political power of Ecuador's indigenous population: the Pachakutik party, which focuses on environmental issues and indigenous rights, is now the second-largest party in parliament. Meanwhile, in a big surprise next door in Perú, far-left union leader Pedro Castillo tallied up the most votes in the first round of that country's highly fragmented presidential election. As of Monday evening it's not clear whom he'll face in the June runoff, but three figures are in the running as votes are counted: prominent neoliberal economist Hernando De Soto, rightwing businessman Rafael López Aliaga, and conservative Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the country's imprisoned former strongman. Meanwhile, in the congressional ballot, at least 10 parties reached the threshold to win seats, but there is no clear majority or obvious coalition in sight.
Supporters of Peru's presidential candidate Verónica Mendoza hold a giant national flag during a campaign closing rally in Lima.
What We’re Watching: Andean elections, AstraZeneca’s hell week, former Aussie PM is designated driver
Two big Andean elections: This Sunday, Ecuadorians go to the polls for the second time this year in a close presidential runoff, while Peruvians will vote in the first round of their own presidential election. In Ecuador, the matchup is between the leftwing-populist frontrunner Andrés Arauz, who has pledged to blow up the country's IMF agreements and boost national oil production, and Guillermo Lasso, a pro-business candidate who is seen as the choice of continuity with the current market-friendly government. Voter abstention is likely to be high, and the final result could very well be close and contested in a polarized country that was struggling with massive social unrest even before the pandemic struck. Meanwhile in Peru — which recently went through three presidents in the space of a week — the candidate field is hugely fragmented. Those with a decent shot to make it to the second round include "change" candidates like the leftist former lawmakers Yohny Lescano and Verónica Mendoza, as well as the prominent neoliberal economist Hernando De Soto, who has recently risen in the polls. Former soccer star George Forsyth is also in the mix, as is Keiko Fujimori, daughter of authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori. Both of this Sunday's elections will serve as a kind of bellwether for the political mood in a region that has been devastated by the public health and economic impact of the pandemic.
AstraZeneca under pressure: COVID jab manufacturer AstraZeneca has had a hell week. First, a top EU health official issued a confusing statement linking AstraZeneca's jab to blood clots, which has led some countries to limit its use on people older than 60 and younger than 30. And now the African Union is suspending further AstraZeneca purchases until the Serum Institute of India can ensure supplies for the global COVAX facility. The latter is a big blow to a lot African nations, since the AU was betting on AstraZeneca to inoculate the entire continent because its vaccine is cheap and doesn't need cold storage. On the other hand, it's also a vindication of early skeptic South Africa, which stopped using AstraZeneca even before the blood clots issue surfaced because it was not effective enough against the variant of the virus prevalent there. The broader problem is that unless the safety, supply and efficacy concerns are resolved soon, AstraZeneca's jab will lose the momentum it once had to end the pandemic throughout the developing world.
A famous chauffeur: Four inebriated Aussies stumble out of a bar in Melbourne to discover a driving rain. Having called Uber, they spot an idling car. They pile in and ask the driver to take them to Hastings street. About halfway home, one of the boys notices that their driver is Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and current Eurasia Group senior adviser. Rudd had just dropped his daughter off at a restaurant when his surprise passengers arrived, and he agreed to take them home because Kevin is a fair dinkum gent.