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A general view of the German lower house of parliament, in Berlin, Germany.
Germany to hold early elections
Under a plan agreed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the opposition, Europe’s largest economy is now headed toward early elections in February.
The move comes after weeks of fraying ties among the so-called “traffic light” coalition, an unwieldy tie-up of Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (red), the business-friendly Free Democrats (yellow), and the environment-oriented Greens (you guessed it).
The final straw, last week, was a spat over Germany’s budget. Scholz and the Greens wanted to relax Germany’s strict fiscal rules to create room to invest in infrastructure, defense, and Ukraine aid. The Free Democrats rejected that and proposed a more austerity-oriented budget of their own. Scholz, in turn, sacked Free Democrat Finance Minister Christian Lindner, which led to his party leaving the governing coalition altogether.
What happens now: Under the current deal, Scholz will hold a confidence vote in his government in mid-December, which – assuming he loses as expected – will pave the way for February elections, which the parties want to hold on Feb. 23, 2025.
At the moment, polls show the opposition Christian Democratic Union as the clear frontrunner with 32% support, twice that of Scholz’s Social Democrats. The far-right Alternative For Germany polls second, at 17%.Political endorsements: Do they help or hurt trust in journalism?
Smart or spineless? Should newspapers endorse candidates, or does it undermine their objectivity?
When Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos announced last week that his paper would no longer publish political endorsements — as they have done for decades — the backlash was swift. 200,000 people canceled their subscriptions, according to NPR. Retired Post Executive Editor Marty Baron unleashed a furious volley on X. “This is cowardice, with democracy as its casualty,” he raged. “Disturbing spinelessness at an institution famed for courage.”
For Baron, missing editorial vertebrae is a virtual news pandemic. The Los Angeles Times also canceled endorsements. Gannett, which owns 200 papers including USA Today, banned presidential endorsements earlier in the year.
Was the Post’s move, as Baron suggested, a lame, last-minute attempt to appease Donald Trump (should he win) and curry political favor?
The timing sure looks bad. If Bezos wanted to change the Post’s policy, he should have done it much earlier. Yanking endorsements days before a close election is like giving yourself a political wedgie, an awkward, painful experience that seems totally inappropriate. It undermines the integrity of the decision and gives it the sour sniff of desperation, a weak obeisance to Trump’s anti-media threats. Showing fear of the powerful is a malignant condition for any news organization.
But while the timing looks weak, the merits of the argument are strong. Bezos is right to point to aGallup poll from October showing that trust in the media is at an all-time low, with only 31% saying they are confident the media reports the news fairly and accurately.
“For the third consecutive year, more US adults have no trust at all in the media (36%) than trust it a great deal or fair amount,” wrote Gallup. “Another 33% of Americans express ‘not very much’ confidence.” As a comparison, in the 1970s, trust in the media was closer to 70%. Even in the early 2000s, trust was still about 55%.
Bezos sees endorsements as one reason for this collapse. To him, endorsements are a dangerous vestige of a bygone era that undermines the trust in objective journalism. “What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias,” he wrote. “A perception of non-independence. Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one.”
Gannett took a slightly more nuanced position than Bezos, banning national endorsements for president but letting its local papers endorse at the local level. “We believe America’s future is decided locally – one race at a time,” Gannett announced in a statement to CNN.
This may be a distinction without a difference, but nuance matters. Papers have long published editorials on various subjects, and readers look to those positions for some guidance. They should and will continue. Editorials are marked as such and function as separate sections for readers to discern. An election endorsement is different. It taints all reporters’ work with a political hue.
Outlets that openly skew to one political side — right or left — should be happy to continue to endorse and present their reasons. Why not? They are open about their partisanship and political bent, and they make money selling their papers to people who like that view.
But for any media organization fighting to maintain an objective, nonpartisan reputation, political endorsements alienate readers from one or another side, driving them to partisan outlets that may have no journalistic standards at all. Readers can make up their own minds on who to vote for without a paper picking sides.
At GZERO, we have never endorsed a political candidate. Our policy is to maintain objective, nonpartisan journalism and analysis, without becoming toothless bores whose neutrality masks an unwillingness to call out facts or press back against the tide of disinformation and bullshit. But who you vote for is up to you. Our job is to present the facts, the stories, and the policies clearly, put them in perspective, and make sure you have the tools to make an informed decision.
Speaking of election tools, we have a full toolbox for you here to get all the insights you need for the wild events surrounding this election, from our Bloc by Bloc series on America’s changing voting patterns and key factors that may sway the election, to a deep dive into the seven swing states that will determine the next president.
Also, please tune in to Ian Bremmer and Van Jones tomorrow on our new Substack channel (subscribe today) at 2:15 p.m. ET for a great chat about the drivers of the election so far.
We will also have election night coverage on our website and on Substack, where you can participate in the virtual watch party. And join us for our live X space at 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, even if there is no confirmed winner.
So while we don’t endorse endorsements, however you choose to vote, please join in the conversation. We keep it civil and fact-based, and we don’t think it is a crime to enjoy talking politics.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is pictured during a media interview at the headquarters of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo on Oct. 27, 2024.
Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito lost their parliamentary majority on Sunday in an election dominated by economic and ethical issues.
“The LDP got thumped,” said David Boling, Eurasia Group's Japan director, noting that a recent political fundraising corruption scandal was its downfall. “It tried to sweep the political fundraising scandal under the rug, but the voters weren’t having it.”
The LDP now holds 191 seats in the 465-seat lower house, its worst performance since 2009. Komeito holds 24, while the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has 148, and two smaller parties, the Democratic Party for the People and Japan Innovation Party won 28 and 38 seats respectively – making them possible partners in the new government.
Foreign policy feud? Komeito has resisted the LDP’s push to abandon Japan’s post-World War II pacifism, opposing moves to double military spending, acquire longer-range weapons, and lift restrictions on military exports. In contrast, the JIP is led by Donald Trump-admirer Nobuyuki Baba and favors increased defense spending and revising Japan’s constitution to boost military engagement.
Polymath Synthetic Media Solutions shows a demo video to potential customers that shows Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking. You can see how the face of Indian Prime Minister Modi is analyzed to create an avatar of him.
Deepfake videos are a possible election threat
Some startups like Runway and Pika have made AI video models available to the public, but video generation as a whole has further to go than image and text generation. There are more visual clues in videos that can show something isn’t 100% authentic: blurry spots, lag, discontinuity between frames, object impermanence, or other visual oddities are often present.
We’ve seen deepfake images and audio of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, AI voices in Pakistan, and AI avatars in Indonesia. While deepfake videos haven’t yet been prevalent, they’re almost certainly the next frontier. Ahead of an interview with Sen. Amy Klobuchar, CNN anchor Jake Tapperdeployed a convincing deepfake version of himself, and Miles Taylor, the former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff, warned in Time Magazine that a deefpake video could be this election season’s “October surprise.”
If a deepfake video doesn’t sow chaos during the upcoming US election, it’s almost sure to disrupt an election somewhere in the world very soon.
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waits for the arrival of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at Rideau Cottage, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 19, 2024.
Live from New York, it’s the Justin Trudeau Show
Embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a break Monday from important business at the United Nations General Assembly to appear on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.” Trudeau, who is under pressure at home to vacate his office, Joe Biden-style, before an election he seems certain to lose, enjoyed a friendly welcome.
Trudeau and Colbert bantered about maple syrup, bacon, softwood lumber tariffs, and Americans buying cheaper pharmaceutical drugs in Canada.
“We’re happy to try and help you out, but it would be really easier if you guys had universal health care,” Trudeau joked, getting a round of enthusiastic applause.
But a report released Wednesday revealed that Canadians are increasingly unhappy with their own strained health care system, and 73% support major reform, including greater private delivery.
Trudeau acknowledged the difficulty he faces at home, where voters are blaming him for cost-of-living concerns: “People are taking a lot out on me for understandable reasons.”
He signaled, though, that he is not looking at getting out of the way: “People are sometimes looking at change, but the reality is I deeply believe in continuing to fight climate change and continuing to invest in people, continuing to be there to support people. And I’m going to keep fighting.”
Rows of empty voting booths at the Chicago Board of Elections Loop Super Site on Clark Street are shown on Feb. 15, 2023, in Chicago.
Hard Numbers: Election uncertainty rattles US companies, Saskatchewan mounts “rare” challenge to China, Immigration nudges up Canada’s population, US state stockpiles abortion drugs
21: Is uncertainty about the presidential election causing US companies to delay investments? In a new survey, 21% percent of CFOs said yes, it is. Some 15% said that they had actively reduced investment to hedge against election risk. Still, about two thirds said their plans were unchanged, and 60% said they were bullish on the US economy overall.
400: A new province-backed rare earths mining company in Saskatchewan aims to produce 400 tons per year of the minerals, which are crucial for EV batteries and other high tech applications. The project is part of an effort to get around China’s dominance in the industry – Beijing currently controls 95% of global production and supply of rare earths.
41,288,599: There are more and more Canadians! As of July 1, there were 41,288,599 Canucks, according to fresh census data. In the second quarter of the year, the number rose by 0.6%, a slight slowdown from the same period last year. Immigration accounted for almost all of the increase.
30,000: Concerned about the possibility that access to abortion could be limited if Donald Trump wins the election, Washington state has amassed a stockpile of 30,000 doses of the abortion drug mifepristone. The state’s Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee ordered the purchases after a US Supreme Court ruling left the drug on the market but opened the way to further legal challenges. This week, Trump sought to reassure women that they won’t “be thinking about abortion” if he is president.As the island nation attempts to crawl its way out of a crippling economic crisis, Sri Lanka’s leading presidential candidates are promising a fairer shake for ordinary families — but will voters demand an upheaval of the entrenched aristocracy?
In Sri Lanka’s elections, the system is on trial
As the island nation attempts to crawl its way out of a crippling economic crisis, Sri Lanka’s leading presidential candidates are promising a fairer shake for ordinary families — but will voters demand an upheaval of the entrenched aristocracy? The country heads to the polls on Saturday, Sept. 21.
Sajith Premadasa, leader of the main opposition United People’s Power party and son of the country’s third president, says that he willrenegotiate the country’s International Monetary Fund deal to shift more of the burden onto wealthy citizens if he wins. Years ofeconomic mismanagement led to food, fuel, and medicine shortages and mass protests, with then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother (then-Prime Minister) Mahinda Rajapaksa fleeing the country in 2022. Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son Namal is also running for president today.
Rajapaksa’s close political ally Ranil Wickremesinghe has been running the country ever since and negotiated a bailout with the IMF that included fiscal reforms and tax increases. Inflation has fallen from 70% in 2022 to 0.5% last month, and the currency is gaining strength as foreign reserves increase. Whether voters are feeling those improvements in their daily lives will determine whether he stays in power.
Sri Lanka’s 1983-2009 civil war hangs heavily over the election as well. Premadasa has reached out to the minority Tamil community, who make up about 11% of the population overall but predominate in the north and east. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam fought for independence in those regions after a series of vicious anti-Tamil pogroms between 1956 and 1983, and atrocity after atrocity by both sides have deeply scarred the country.
Estimates of the death toll run over 200,000 people, not to mention hundreds of thousands more displaced, and thousands disappeared, tortured, and executed without a trace. If Tamil voters believe in Premadasa’s promises of devolution of power, they could tip the election in his favor — but with so much blood spilt, it will be a hard sell.
We also have our eye on Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who alone among the major candidates has no ties to the island’s elite families. He rose from humble roots to lead the National People’s Power coalition and isalso promising to renegotiate the IMF deal and tackle pervasive corruption. However, he is not free of the taint of war: He is the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a communist party behind the 1987-1989 uprising that killed at least 60,000 people.US Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz takes the stage on Day 3 of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois, on Aug. 21, 2024.
Tim Walz introduces himself to America
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz had a heavy task before him when he stepped onto the Democratic National Convention stage Wednesday night to formally accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for vice president. He’s a relatively unknown politician who was tapped to be Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate — in an election unlike any this country has ever seen — earlier this month. Walz needed to deliver and sell himself as a viable, attractive VP candidate. And he was following some tough acts: former President Bill Clinton, Stevie Wonder, and a little-known talk show host named Oprah Winfrey.
By the time Walz was done speaking, however, the crowd in Chicago’s United Center was roaring with approval.
After walking out to the beat of John Mellencamp’s “Small Town,” in an allusion to Walz’s Nebraska roots, the Minnesota governor took it upon himself to lay out his life story — he was introducing himself to the country. Walz talked about serving in the military, falling in love with teaching, coaching high school football, and ultimately transitioning into politics.
“It was my students who first inspired me to run for Congress. They saw in me what I hoped to instill in them — a commitment to the common good,” Walz said.
Walz is a progressive, which could be a double-edged sword for Harris. He could help her draw in more left-leaning voters who’ve soured on the Democratic Party in recent years, but he might also turn off centrist voters who are on the fence.
But Walz leaned into his progressive record in his speech, at times contrasting his policies as governor with the culture wars being waged by many Republican governors and politicians. “While other states were banning books from their schools, we were banishing hunger from ours,” Walz said at one point, referring to his free school lunch program.
Walz said he would be an advocate for personal freedoms, summing up his view with the phrase: "Mind your own damn business." He also said Harris would "stand up and fight for your freedom to live the life that you want to lead."
Walz laid out what Harris would do for the country as president, including cutting taxes for the middle class, taking on big pharma to lower prescription drug prices, and fighting to make homes more affordable.
He wrapped up with a rallying cry for Democrats. “We’ve only got 76 days to go. That’s nothing. There’ll be time to sleep when we’re dead,” Walz said, offering a countdown until Election Day, with the crowd erupting in response.
While Walz’s speech was well-received at the convention, it remains to be seen whether it resonated with a national audience. Democrats are clearly fired up now that Harris is their nominee, but polling shows that she still faces a tight race with former President Donald Trump — and riling up party loyalists is a lot easier than winning over undecideds.
Walz was “very good, but the message seems very targeted toward Democrats,” says Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s managing director for the US, adding that the more important speech of the night was likely from Oprah Winfrey, who “was speaking to a broader audience.”
“Democrats like to paint Walz as a normal guy who can appeal to ‘everyday Americans,’ but the fact is that the margins in his two elections were pretty consistent with a D-leaning state that’s divided around 55/45 party lines,” Lieber adds. “He seems like a dedicated public servant, caring teacher and coach, and devoted family man, but I’m just not sure any of that translates into votes.”