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The Veepstakes: Who will be Donald Trump's VP pick?
With Donald Trump set to announce his vice presidential running mate in the coming days, we explore the possible contenders — and their viability.
Tim Scott
Tim Scott
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination last November, has been campaigning hard for Donald Trump – and he has his eye on becoming vice president. But will the GOP’s only Black senator get Trump’s VP nod?
Raised by a single mom in Charleston, South Carolina, Scott became the first Black Republican elected to any office in the Palmetto State since the 19th century when he won his 1995 Charleston city council race. In 2008, he won a seat in the statehouse and went on to the House of Representatives in 2010. After one term, then-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley appointed him to fill a vacant Senate seat, and he has easily won reelection three times. He is arguably the most recognizable elected Black Republican in office today. (Could Tim Scott become Trump's No. 2? Continue to read here.)
Elise Stefanik
Elise Stefanik
Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a rising star of the GOP, is one of the few women on former President Donald Trump’s vice president shortlist.
When Stefanik first entered the national political scene in 2014, she was considered the new face of the Republican Party. At the time, she was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and widely considered a moderate. Fast-forward to 2024, and Stefanik has drastically shifted to the right. She’s a full-blown MAGA Republican, routinely defending Trump and echoing his talking points – including the white nationalist “great replacement” conspiracy theory. (Could Stefanik, now a full-blown MAGA Republican, become Trump's running mate? Continue to read here.)
JD Vance
JD Vance
CNP/INSTARimages.com via Reuters
From holler to white collar. That’s the unusual life arc of J.D. Vance, the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio.
Born into extreme poverty in rural southern Ohio, he grew up in the holler – “the hollow” – surrounded by abuse, addiction, and despair. But he made it out: He joined the Marines, graduated from Yale Law School, and became a successful tech venture capitalist.
He recounted all of this in his bestselling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which became required reading after Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton spurred interest in the disaffection of white working-class America. In the book, Vance criticized a culture of victimhood and dependency among poor whites while also blasting the establishment’s condescension and neglect. (Could Vance make it to the very top? Continue to read here.)
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
Mariana Robertson via Reuters
Florida’s senior senator earned the nickname “Lil’ Marco” for challenging Donald Trump during the 2016 primaries, but he has since forged a close alliance with the former president – so much so that some believe he could be tapped for No. 2.
Rubio was born in Miami to Cuban immigrants who arrived before the 1959 communist revolution — contrary to claims he had long made of them fleeing from Fidel Castro. He speaks fluent Spanish and got his start in politics in 1998 as a city commissioner in West Miami, where the 2000 census showed 87% of residents spoke Spanish as a first language. (Could Rubio stand a chance of becoming the first Latino VP? Find out more here.)
Doug Burgum
Doug Burgum
When Doug Burgum launched a campaign for the Republican presidential nomination focused on economic growth, energy production, and national security, few Americans outside of the Flickertail State had heard of the former software CEO turned governor of North Dakota. Just to get the 40,000 unique donors needed to make the debate stage, he had to give out $20 gift cards in return for $1 campaign donations. While he’s still far from a household name, he has emerged as a dark horse favorite to become Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate.
Who is he? The67-year-old Burgum hails from Arthur, North Dakota — a town of roughly 300 residents — and worked as a consultant at McKinsey & Co before leveraging his family farm to start an accounting software company called Great Plains Software, which he sold to Microsoft for $1.1 billion in 2001. (Would Trump fancy a biz-savvy VP pick? Find out more here.)
Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate?
Wildcards: Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Vivek Ramaswamy, Ivanka Trump, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Tulsi Gabbard & Byron Donalds
Luisa Vieira/GZERO Media
Donald Trump has been teasing his vice presidential pick for weeks, but with the Republican National Convention kicking off next week, he’s likely to make it official — and soon.
Right now, the front-runners appear to be Sens. Marco Rubio and JD Vance, along with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. But what about the contenders who aren’t grabbing headlines yet remain on Trump’s radar? Here is everything you need to know about the dark-horse candidates.
Nikki Haley: We know, we know, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s former ambassador to the UN fired shots at the former president as his main opponent in the primary. But just because she once challenged him doesn’t mean she wouldn’t be a valuable running mate. (Could Trump surprise us with his VP running mate? Find out more about his wildcard prospects here.)
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The GOP centrist turned Trump loyalist
Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a rising star of the GOP, is one of the few women on former President Donald Trump’s vice president shortlist.
When Stefanik first entered the national political scene in 2014, she was considered the new face of the Republican Party. At the time, she was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and widely considered a moderate. Fast-forward to 2024, and Stefanik has drastically shifted to the right. She’s a full-blown MAGA Republican, routinely defending Trump and echoing his talking points – including the white nationalist “great replacement” conspiracy theory.
As chair of the House Republican Conference, Stefanik is one of the most powerful GOP lawmakers in the lower chamber and knows the inner workings of Washington. Stefanik gained a lot of attention this year over her criticism of university presidents in relation to protests over the war in Gaza and antisemitism on campuses. She recently introduced legislation to impose penalties on “antisemitic universities.”
“Stefanik has as good a chance as anybody of becoming the VP. She's been a loyal Trump ally and has good connections in Congress,” says Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s managing director for the US. But he also notes that “it isn't remotely obvious that she brings to the ticket anything other than being a reliable Trump supporter, as she doesn't obviously help him appeal to moderate Republicans, women, or people of color.”
“Still, we don't know what Trump is looking for, and it could be that a friendly face is enough,” adds Lieber.
To learn about Trump’s other possible VP picks, check out our Veepstakes series here.
What you should know about Elise Stefanik’s rise in the GOP
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Who is Elise Stefanik and what does she mean for the Republican Party right now?
Elise Stefanik is a young member from Upstate New York. She had originally started her career as a staffer in the George W. Bush administration, but in recent years, has turned into one of the most outspoken defenders of President Donald Trump, particularly during the impeachment trial last year. She's relevant right now because it looks like she'll be replacing Liz Cheney, the Representative from Wyoming and also the daughter of the former Vice President, who has been outspoken in her criticism of President Trump since the January 6th insurrection, and probably more importantly, outspoken in her criticism of the direction of the Republican Party.
The irony here though, is that while Cheney is going down, she's being replaced by somebody who, when she came into office, was expected to be a pretty standard-bearing Bush Republican. And so this is just really indicative of where the Party is, very hard to stay on in Republican leadership if you aren't going to be a supporter of President Trump. Too many of Cheney's colleagues thought she had become a distraction and wanted her gone. Stefanik is probably a placeholder. She says she doesn't want to serve in the position long-term. She eventually wants to take over the chairmanship of a committee, and she has many years ahead of her in Congress. She is very young.
What's the outlook for the Democrats' election bill?
Well, the Democrats in the House and Senate have introduced a bill to rewrite federal election law. Traditionally, election laws have been set by the state. States are allowed to choose how to do their redistricting. They're allowed to choose how people vote. Do they do mail-in votes? Do they have no-excuse mail-in votes? How many days of early voting are they going to allow? And, the Democrats bill would append that entire regime, and create a federal standard that every state would have to meet for number of days of pre-election day, in-person voting, standards around absentee voting, how to draw districts, taking it away from partisan gerrymandering and moving it towards a commission, in most states. And, there's been a lot of opposition to it. So the Democrats argue that this bill is necessary because Republicans are passing what they think are restrictive voting laws across the country. And Republicans are saying the Democrats are trying to take over and federalize elections to increase the chances that they win future elections and hold onto their current majorities in the House and Senate. And there's truth to both claims. The bill is very unlikely to move anywhere. It has 49 Democratic Senators who support it, who are co-sponsors, and one Democratic holdout, Joe Manchin. But even if Manchin never came around and said he supported the bill, it would require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate, or the elimination of the legislative filibuster, so it's very unlikely to pass into law. You know this is a really big deal for the Democrats. They've given it the special designation S.1 in the Senate, H.R.1 in the House, which is a symbolic act suggesting this is their highest priority. But also, in a Rules Committee hearing earlier this week, both Majority Leader, Schumer, and Republican Minority Leader, McConnell, showed up to debate the bill in-person, debate amendments, and there've been multiple showdowns on the Floor. This is a really high-stakes piece of legislation. It would fundamentally tip the balance of power in favor of the Democrats were it to pass, which is, among other reasons, why Republicans are so opposed to seeing it get into law.
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