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People displaced by fighting in Ethiopia.
State of emergency in northern Ethiopia
The security situation is spiraling in Ethiopia’s northern Amhara region with reports that an Amhara militia has wrested control of several towns from federal forces.
What triggered these clashes? This violence comes just nine months after a truce came into effect in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region ending two years of bloody conflict between government forces and Tigray Defence Forces. (Despite accounting for just 7% of Ethiopia's population, Tigrayans dominated Ethiopian politics for decades until current PM Abiy Ahmed, from the Oromo ethnic group, came to power in 2018.)
After that conflict, Addis Ababa called for the dismantling of all regional forces, hoping to integrate them into the national army. But Amhara nationalists who have long felt isolated from national politics opposed the move and took up arms.
Deadly clashes between government forces and Amhara nationalists prompted the central government to declare a state of emergency in recent days, giving its forces power to conduct raids and detain people without a court order, as well as impose curfews and ban public gatherings. Meanwhile, Amhara fighters have reportedly looted government offices and raided prisons.
Ethiopia, ruled by a military junta until 1991, is deeply fragmented and made up of more than 90 ethnic groups, many of whom have traditionally felt excluded from political power.
As Africa’s second-most populous country, instability in Ethiopia can have a destabilizing impact on the entire Horn of Africa. That’s what happened in Tigray in recent years, with hundreds of thousands of refugees forced to flee to neighboring countries.
The US, for its part, has warned Abiy to get hold of the situation before things deteriorate further. But in a country rife with ethnic strife, it seems more likely that the situation in Amhara will worsen in the near term.
Laborers offload bags of grains as part of relief food that was sent from Ukraine at the World Food Program.
Ethiopians caught in the middle
Weeks after the US and UN halted food aid deliveries to Ethiopia over the massive theft of supplies, Ethiopians are beginning to die of hunger because of the pause, according to new reports.
Quick recap: Earlier this month, the US announced that it was suspending food and medical supplies to Ethiopia because storage facilities were being looted – including by government officials – and sold on the commercial market.
The move was a huge blow for Addis Ababa as the US is by far its largest humanitarian donor, doling out $1.8 billion since the beginning of 2022. Confirming the findings, the UN World Food Programme promptly followed suit.
What happens now? The US says it is looking at food aid reforms in the country, though it is unclear when shipments will resume or if the central government will play ball, considering that some of its own have been implicated in the scheme. The Ethiopian government has agreed to conduct a joint probe with the US, while the UN is conducting its own.
Indeed, this is a catastrophe in a country – burdened by a civil war in the northern Tigray region that broke out in 2021 – where 20 million people rely on food assistance.
For the US, this also highlights the dilemma of delivering aid to countries grappling with endemic corruption and poor governance. On one hand, continuing to hand out goods sends a message to the bad guys that theft is permissible. It also makes it harder to convince taxpayers at home that it is worth aiding countries embroiled in drawn-out crises (hello, Ukraine!). On the other hand, the humanitarian argument for continuing to provide supplies that will reach at least some needy Ethiopians is clear-cut.
What do you think the US should do? Write to us here.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks at a joint press conference with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in Seoul, South Korea, 31 January 2023.
What We’re Watching: Pentagon leak fallout, Manhattan DA sues House Republicans, new source of tension in Ethiopia
The fog of leaks
Fallout continues from the leak of secret US documents related to the war in Ukraine. The leaked info suggests that Egypt, one of the world’s largest recipients of US military aid, planned to secretly supply Russia with tens of thousands of rockets for use in Ukraine and that the United Arab Emirates, also a key US ally, would help Russia work against US and UK intelligence. Egypt and the UAE say these reports are false.
Another document suggests that US eavesdropping on its ally South Korea indicated that aides to South Korea’s president had discussed sending artillery shells to the US or Poland for use by Ukraine, a move that would violate South Korea’s policy of refusing to export weapons to any country at war.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has claimed that “quite a few of the documents in question were fabricated,” but he isn’t saying what’s true and what isn’t. The world may never know who leaked these documents, why they were leaked, and which parts of them, if any, were entirely fabricated or partially altered. But the headaches for those who must now repair damaged international relationships are real, and the domestic political fallout for leaders of some of these countries, particularly South Korea, will continue.
Manhattan DA sues House Republicans
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced Tuesday that he’s suing House Republicans for allegedly interfering in the criminal case against former President Donald Trump.
Bragg’s lawsuit is focused on the actions of Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee. In the 50-page suit, Bragg accuses Jordan of “a transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” the district attorney as his office pursues criminal charges against the former president for allegedly breaking campaign finance laws by making a hush-money payment to a porn star.
House Republicans have demanded that Bragg’s office hand over documents and testimony related to the Trump case, insisting that the committee has oversight rights. Crucially, Jordan had issued a subpoena for Mark F. Pomerantz to deliver a closed-door deposition. Pomerantz is a former assistant DA who left his job last year after Bragg reportedly opposed a wider tax-and-insurance fraud prosecution of Trump, which Pomerantz favored.
Bragg has sued to block the subpoena saying it amounts to “an unconstitutional attempt to undermine an ongoing New York felony criminal prosecution and investigation.”
Whatever happens, as this case makes its way through the courts, Jordan will be delayed in getting his hands on the documents and testimony he is seeking.
Fresh unrest hits Ethiopia
For almost a week now, protests have raged in the Ethiopian region of Amhara over a federal government plan to absorb local security forces into the national army.
The tensions are only the latest example of how fragmented Africa’s second most populous country has become. It was just months ago that the government finally reached a peace deal with separatist militants from the region of Tigray, ending a gruesome civil war that had displaced millions.
In that conflict, as it happens, Amhara’s local forces fought alongside the government, pursuing long-standing grievances and territorial claims against their Tigrayan neighbors.
Now Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed wants to eliminate all regional forces of that kind. For Abiy, it’s necessary to strengthen national unity. He won’t back down, he says, even if a “price needs to be paid.” But the Amharas worry that without those forces, they’ll be vulnerable to fresh attacks from other ethnic groups or the federal government itself.
That puts Abiy in a familiar bind. Five years after popular protests swept him to power with a mandate to liberalize Ethiopia’s political system, he is still struggling to master the country’s ferocious ethnic and regional rivalries.
US President Joe Biden during a campaign stop ahead of the midterm elections in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
What We're Watching: Biden's secret papers, Ukrainians in Oklahoma, Tigrayan demobilization
Check your closets for classified docs
It’s been a rollercoaster kind of week for US President Joe Biden.
On the downside, it seems he just plumb forgot to return not one but two batches of classified documents from his days as VP. The first cache was reportedly found on Nov. 2 – yes, you read that right, just days before the midterms – but not reported publicly until Monday. Then, on Wednesday, reports emerged of a second tranche of unreturned docs discovered at another location. Biden, keen to distinguish himself from the way former President Donald Trump handled his own classified documents scandal, said his lawyers followed protocol and immediately contacted the National Archives about returning the documents. A Justice Department review is underway.
The good news this week for Biden is that for the first time since the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in Aug. 2021, his approval rating (46%) is now higher than his disapproval (45%), according to an Economist/YouGov survey. Why the uptick? Biden has signed major pieces of legislation like CHIPS and the Inflation Reduction Act in recent months. Meanwhile, Republicans blew their chance for a “red wave” in the midterms, and the GOP's chaotic election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy shows just how deep divisions in the party are. Still, House GOP members are hellbent on investigating Biden over a range of issues including, perhaps, the newfound classified files. Biden has had a good nine months — could the GOP-controlled house change his fortunes?
Ukrainian fighters headed for Oklahoma
As Russia and Ukraine argue over who is winning the battle for strategically important towns in the Donbas region, there are new signs that US support for Ukraine’s defense is intensifying. The US Defense Department has announced it will welcome up to 100 Ukrainian soldiers to a training facility in Oklahoma next week to teach them over the coming months how to use and maintain a truck-mounted Patriot missile defense system (or battery) that the US has agreed to provide to Ukraine’s military. (The US is supplying one battery, and Germany will provide a second.) It’s a significant step toward helping Ukraine establish a unified air defense system at a time when Russia is relying heavily on long-range artillery to target critical Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure as well as Ukrainian cities. This isn’t the first time Ukrainian soldiers have been invited to the US for training, but it remains unusual. The US also says it will train hundreds more Ukrainians in Germany in the use of other powerful weapons.
The long road to peace in Ethiopia
Tigrayan rebels on Wednesday started handing over heavy weapons to Ethiopia's federal government, as mandated by a cease-fire agreement signed two months ago. The deal ended more than two years of armed conflict and a humanitarian crisis that has killed thousands, left hundreds of thousands close to famine, and displaced millions. So far, so good, right? Not so fast. First, aid delivery and services have resumed but remain far below what's needed for a region that has been clobbered by fighting and cut off from the rest of Ethiopia since Nov. 2020. Second, before signing on the dotted line, the Tigrayans demanded the withdrawal of troops from neighboring Eritrea, who have been on-again, off-again fighting on behalf of the Ethiopian government for much of the war. Not all the foreign soldiers have left, and Asmara — which did not join the peace talks in South Africa — has been silent for months. Demobilization of the rebels is a big step toward ending the conflict, but peace will remain elusive until all of Tigray is fully back to business and Eritrea is finally out.Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto leads a rally ahead of the midterm elections in Henderson, Nevada.
What We’re Watching: Dems’ Senate victory, Iran's first protester death sentence, Ethiopia's peace deal
Dems take the Senate
The long wait has ended with Democrats retaining control of the US Senate. The victory was sealed after Catherine Cortez Masto, the Nevada incumbent locked in a tight race against her Donald Trump-backed rival, squeezed through with a narrow win. Meanwhile, a Democrat also won Nevada’s race for secretary of state – another midterm defeat for pro-Trump election deniers. With the Senate now at 50-49 for Dems (who have the advantage of VP Harris’ tie-breaking vote), the White House is now turning its attention to Georgia. A Senate runoff in the Peach State on Dec. 6 could see the Dems clinch 51 seats, giving them majorities in Senate committees and more wiggle room on key bills. Meanwhile, the House remains too close to call, but the GOP is slightly favored to win, needing just 7 seats to reach a majority, compared to the Dems’ 14. Still, many of the 21 House seats that haven’t been called yet are toss-ups, and the Dems have secured victories in unexpected races over the past few days. Buckle up for a nail-biter.
Iran sentences protester to death and indicts dozens
On Sunday, a Tehran court issued its first death sentence linked to ongoing riots in the Islamic Republic, and dozens more were indicted in a bid to quash the women-led movement that’s rocked the country for two months. At least 300 people have been killed and 15,000 arrested since nationwide protests erupted after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for donning her hijab "improperly." The death sentence comes weeks after 80% of Iran’s parliamentarians voted in favor of executing demonstrators, the majority of whom are young women calling for regime change. To date, most of the indictments – over 1,000 – have been handed down in Tehran, the capital, but the latest charges were issued in the southern province of Hormozgan, suggesting that the use of Iran’s draconian judiciary to deal with protesters is intensifying. A transnational group that tracks political detentions says at least 65 of those charged are minors. Meanwhile, Iceland and Germany are calling for a special session at the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the situation, which could send a powerful message to the mullahs but is unlikely to have a real bearing on the regime’s crackdown.
Inching closer to peace in Tigray
The Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces have agreed to terms for a peace deal that could end a two-year conflict that’s turned the northern region of Tigray into a hellscape. The deal stipulates that both sides will begin to lay down their arms on Nov. 15 and comes after Ethiopia's central government and the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a paramilitary group, agreed in principle to end the war at an African Union-brokered summit earlier this month. The aim is to create a humanitarian corridor to Tigray, which has long been blockaded by Addis Ababa, leaving more than 89% of Tigray’s population requiring food assistance. Still, several sticking points remain, including whether Eritrean forces, who have fought alongside Ethiopian forces and have their own territorial claims, will put down their arms. Clearly, the Tigrayans won't abide by the deal’s terms until all their opponents do. Will one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts finally come to an end?
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Ethiopian government representative Redwan Hussien and Tigray delegate Getachew Reda pass documents during the signing of the AU-led negotiations to resolve the conflict in northern Ethiopia
Just like that: Is Ethiopia’s war over?
For two years, it was one of the world’s most gruesome conflicts. Hundreds of thousands displaced, millions at risk of famine, and a rapidly shifting frontline that drew in neighboring countries and saw allegations of war crimes by both sides.
And then suddenly, last week, Ethiopia’s civil war, which pitted the federal government against fighters from the northern region of Tigray, seemed to end. Both sides agreed to a peace framework at talks in South Africa.
Why? How? And what are the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation, a country that until recently was one of the world’s fastest growing economies?
First a refresher on how we got here: Tigray is home to 7 million of Ethiopia’s 120 million people. For decades the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a political party, was top dog in Ethiopia’s dictatorship. But in 2018, a democratic popular revolution swept current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power. Two years later, a dispute with the TPLF over the timing and legality of local elections turned ugly. The Tigrayans felt their autonomy was threatened, while Abiy saw a challenge to federal authority from an ethnic group accustomed to having more power. War broke out and quickly drew in troops from neighboring Eritrea who fought alongside Ethiopian forces.
Peace: why now? The Ethiopian federal government has been struggling with an economic downturn, soaring inflation, the worst drought in 40 years, and the increasing costs of waging a war against a well-armed adversary fighting on its home turf.
But it was the Tigrayans – exhausted by nearly two years of siege and bombardment, running low on food and munitions, and reeling from recent Ethiopian battlefield gains – who were desperate to stop the war, say analysts.
Growing pressure from an international community that saw the limits of its ability to influence Addis Ababa also played a role, according to Connor Vasey, an Ethiopia analyst with Eurasia Group
“In the end,” Vasey says, “time was on Addis Ababa’s side but not on Tigray’s.”
So what’s in the deal?
Given Addis Ababa’s advantages, the deal is a sweet one for PM Abiy. The Tigrayans must give up their heavy weapons, recognize the authority of the federal government again, and hold fresh elections under Ethiopian national laws. In exchange, the federal government would relax its siege of the region, allowing desperately needed aid and services to resume.
“The deal was a huge diplomatic and political victory for the federal government,” says William Davison, Ethiopia senior analyst at International Crisis Group. “It allows the prime minister to tell the world that the war is over and that financial assistance to his country should resume in a rapid and substantial way.”
What’s the catch? The biggest initial sticking point, analysts say, will be the terms of Tigrayan disarmament. Eritrean troops remain in Tigray, but that country, ominously, is not party to the peace deal at all. So long as those troops – as well as those from neighboring regions of Ethiopia, which are also nibbling away at Tigrayan territory – stick around, Tigrayans won’t feel secure enough to give up their heavy weapons.
But in that case, the federal government's siege could remain partially or wholly in place, with devastating consequences for ordinary Tigrayans.
“One of the main fruits of this agreement,” says Davison, “would be relief for the Tigrayan population.” But if the disarmament talks fall through, “that may not actually be forthcoming.”
Human rights watchdogs, meanwhile, worry about accountability for crimes committed by both sides during the fighting. The current accord, says Amnesty International, “fails to offer a clear roadmap” for justice and “overlooks rampant impunity in the country.”
What to watch next: Military leaders from the two sides are currently negotiating disarmament terms in Nairobi, Kenya. By Friday evening, analysts say, it will be clear whether the fledgling peace has a chance. But given the uncertainty about Tigrayan security, and the lingering Eritrean wildcard, a durable end to the war could be a long shot yet.
Ethiopian government representative Redwan Hussien and Tigray delegate Getachew Reda attend signing of the AU-led negotiations to resolve the conflict in northern Ethiopia.
What We’re Watching: Ethiopian peace deal, Russia’s grain U-turn, Kim Jong Un’s wrath, China’s production woes
Peace at last in Ethiopia?
The government of Ethiopia and rebels from the Tigray region agreed on Wednesday to “permanently” end their civil war. The conflict, which began in late 2020 as Tigrayan forces sought more autonomy from the central government, spiraled into a brutal war that displaced millions, drew in forces from neighboring Eritrea, brought parts of the country to the brink of famine, and led to possible war crimes on both sides. The precise terms of the peace agreement, reached during African Union-brokered peace talks in South Africa, aren’t yet clear, but former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who oversaw the negotiations, said the sides had pledged to put down their weapons, restore “law and order” and open full access to humanitarian aid. One big wildcard? Eritrea, which was not involved in the talks but has its own security interests and territorial claims along its border with Tigray.
Rare good news from Ukraine
Russia has (again) reversed itself on a deal allowing Ukrainian food exports to cross the Black Sea toward international markets, this time by reaffirming its support for safe passage. This is great news for developing countries, particularly in Africa, that badly need affordable food supplies at a time of economic hardship. Under the rules of the July deal brokered by the UN and Turkey, Ukrainian grain and sunflower oil may leave Ukrainian ports and proceed through an agreed-upon maritime corridor. The ships are then inspected in Turkey to ensure they’re not carrying weapons. After a drone attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea, Russia retaliated on Saturday by announcing it would no longer support the deal. But, apparently to the Kremlin’s surprise, the ships continued their journey, essentially daring Russia to sink ships carrying food. Its bluff called, Moscow announced on Wednesday that it would continue to support the deal after all. The original agreement expires on November 19, and many have wondered whether Russia would renew it. This latest reversal suggests Moscow now understands it has little to gain by opposing it.
North Korean missile first
Supreme leader Kim Jong Un hates being ignored. To demand attention, North Korea let off its largest-ever, one-day barrage of missiles on Wednesday, firing 23 ballistics into the sea. One landed a mere 40 miles from the South Korean shore, the closest coastal near-miss since the peninsula was divided in 1945. The move came just as the US and South Korea began large-scale joint military drills, which drive Pyongyang up the wall and prompted it to threaten “powerful follow-up measures.” In response, South Korea flipped on air raid sirens, canceled commercial flights to Japan, and fired a volley of its own missiles northward into the sea. North Korea has conducted a record number of ballistic missiles this year in defiance of international sanctions. Talks between the US and North Korea on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons, meanwhile, remain in a deep freeze, and Wednesday’s barrage follows reports that Kim may be preparing his first nuclear weapon test since 2017.
Update: On Thursday, North Korea launched a suspected ICBM, which flew 472 miles before landing in the sea. The test likely failed but prompted a rare emergency alert in northern Japan.
Chinese manufacturing in chaos
China’s manufacturing sector is in a tailspin this week after several large production lines were shut down due to the country’s restrictive zero-COVID policy. On Wednesday, mass lockdowns in the industrial city of Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, caused several electronic factories to shutter, including Foxconn, one of the manufacturing hubs for iPhones that employs around 200,000 workers. Shortly after, Nio, an electric vehicle manufacturer, announced it was stopping operations at two factories in eastern Anhui province due to supply-chain kinks that have left it short of crucial parts. Some of Nio’s vehicles are bound for European markets that are already facing sky-high prices for cars and other commodities. While many predicted that President Xi Jinping would relax the country’s zero-COVID policy after October’s Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress, so far he’s doubled down on it. Crucially, the timing of this, just weeks before the holiday season, could not be worse for Big Tech or consumers.Supporters gather in front of the house of Argentina's Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner after she was attacked in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP assassination attempt, Ethiopian escalation, Zaporizhzhia tour
Argentine VP survives assassination attempt
Argentina's influential VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner survived an assassination attempt on Thursday night outside her residence in Buenos Aires. A gunman took aim from close range, but his loaded weapon failed to fire. Cops then arrested the man, a Brazilian national with a history of following hate groups on social media. We don’t know the motive and political violence in the country rarely gets bloody, but political tensions have been running very high since last week, when a prosecutor asked for the far-left firebrand VP and former president to be sentenced to 12 years in prison for corruption. Still, her trial will be anything but swift, and Cristina — as she’s universally known — is unlikely to go to jail for charges she calls a "witch hunt." President Alberto Fernández (no relation, nor a big fan of the VP) declared a national holiday on Friday, which the conservative opposition decried as a gambit to turn out crowds in favor of Cristina.
Eritrea jumps back into Ethiopia’s civil war
Eritrean troops have joined Ethiopian government forces in a fresh attack on the Tigray region, according to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. If confirmed independently, this would represent a major (re)escalation in the nearly two-year-long conflict between the Ethiopian government and Tigray militants who are seeking greater autonomy. Last year, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed admitted Eritrean involvement in the war, after initially denying it. Until the resumption of fighting last week, the front had been largely quiet for months under a tenuous humanitarian truce, and diplomats were working to broker a more durable peace. That path looks closed now as both sides gear up for a full-fledged fight again. The war has already led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray that is spilling into neighboring Sudan, and the UN has accused both sides of grave human rights violations and war crimes.
UN nuclear inspectors assess Zaporizhzhia damage
Arriving hours later than expected, a team of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on Thursday visited the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. After touring the facility for the first time, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi tweeted an on-site video vowing to set up shop there. But the last leg of the trip was almost derailed by heavy shelling, which Kyiv and Moscow blamed on each other. The Ukrainians say Russian artillery fire forced them to briefly shut down one of the reactors, while the Russians claim that the Ukrainians tried — and failed — to use the visit as cover for an assault to retake the site. Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, seemed on the brink of disaster after six months of intense fighting near the perimeter, overworked staff, and likely damage to the facility. But the odds of another Chernobyl have now been reduced by the presence of the IAEA team — as long as Russia, keeps its word and lets the foreign scientists stay.