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An F-16 Viper flies overhead during the Thunder Over Louisville airshow on Saturday, April 20, 2024.
The military jet that acts alone
The US Air Force and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, aka DARPA, have been tinkering with the latest aerial weapons. On April 17, DARPA confirmed that in military exercises with the Air Force last year, an AI-controlled jet was pitted against a human pilot in an in-air dogfight simulation.
The Air Force installed its autonomous pilot system in a modified F-16 relabelled as the X-62A back in 2021. Humans were aboard the autonomous aircraft during the dogfight experiment, with the ability to take control if necessary. The military didn’t specify whether the autonomous X-62A or the human-piloted opponent, an F-16 jet, “won” the duel, which took place in September 2023, though it did say the test was a success.
“The potential for autonomous air-to-air combat has been imaginable for decades, but the reality has remained a distant dream up until now,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall wrote in a statement. “This is a transformational moment.”
As we’ve written previously, militaries around the world are gearing up for autonomous warfare, with weapons systems able to identify and take out specific targets. The United Nations has meanwhile called the use of autonomous weapons on human targets a “moral line that we must not cross,” a signal that there will be a drumbeat of public criticism as the US and other militaries expand and deploy their AI-powered weapons.
US approves F-16s for Turkey, moving Sweden NATO membership closer
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How are things proceeding with the ratification of the Swedish membership in NATO?
Well, it’s been some back and forth. But now Turkey has ratified and that is important. That has to do with also the agreement with the US on deliveries of F-16s and modification kits of F-16s and deliveries of F-35s to Greece. A major package has been negotiated, so that should be okay. Now, remaining with Hungary. Prime Minister Orban is a slightly unpredictable fellow, but I would guess that he can't hold off for very long. So I would hope, expect this process to be wrapped up within a couple of weeks.
What about British generals and others warning for the danger of a major war in Europe?
There have been a couple of such voices. I don’t think they signify anything that is imminent in terms of dangers, but they signify a concern. What might happen if the war between Russia, the aggression, if that continues? If we don't have sufficient support for Ukraine, if Ukraine doesn't succeed, then that could well be the beginning of a much more major war and a much more severe security challenge for all of Europe. So I think what you hear, from different generals, should be seen in that rather serious light.
FILE PHOTO: A Turkish F-16 pilot taxis past another Turkish Air Force F-16 at the 3rd Main Jet Air Base in central Turkey's city of Konya.
Turkey gets F-16s, Greece gets F-35s, and Sweden gets one step closer to NATO
Alliances involve a delicate dance. Turkey’s parliament formally approved Sweden’s entry into NATO last week, finally removing the biggest impediment to Stockholm’s accession. In exchange, the US State Department has notified Congress it will now approve the sale of 40 F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, plus kits to modernize Ankara's existing “Vipers.” Not a bad deal, but Turkey really wants what its rivals/allies across the Aegean are getting: the F-35.
The Biden administration is moving forward with a $9 billion sale to Greece of 20 top-of-the-line Lockheed F-35 stealth fighter jets. Call it a perk of good relations. Turkey, on the other hand, lost its chance to buy the newest gear after purchasing Russian anti-air missiles in 2019, against strenuous American objections.
And there’s a lot at stake in the balance of air power between the two nominal NATO allies, as they dispute control over areas of the Aegean Sea. Starting in the 1990s, multiple dogfights between Greek and Turkish pilots have resulted in deaths, with the most recent in 2018. When the Greeks have been flying less capable French-made Mirage jets they have tended to get the worst of it, so leapfrogging over Turkey’s air power could shift the status quo in their favor.
Congress will have 15 days to review the deals. We’ll then have our eye on Hungary, the last remaining holdout against Sweden joining NATO. Considering Budapest has nowhere near the economic, military, or political heft of Ankara – and asked Stockholm for negotiations – we’re watching for a considerably smaller concession.
FILE PHOTO: The President of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speak at a press conference in Berlin on November 17th, 2023.
Still no Swedish meatballs at the NATO cantina
Just days after the Swedish foreign minister said he was confident his country would join NATO “within weeks,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has thrown up another roadblock.
If you’re counting, the process has now dragged on for more than 18 months, as Turkey and Hungary are the two NATO member holdouts blocking Sweden’s formal accession to the alliance.
Erdoğan says that while he’s “done his duty” by asking lawmakers to greenlight Sweden’s entry, he now expects Washington to reward him by approving his long-coveted purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. The Turkish president’s idea is that both processes should occur “simultaneously.”
But the US Congress doesn’t share that idea. Lawmakers in Washington won’t sign off on the F-16 sale “until Sweden is let into NATO,” according to Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen. And Erdoğan’s recent statements in support of Hamas and sanctions-busting trade with Russia will “make that even thornier,” he says.
Still, Erdoğan’s game isn’t to block Sweden indefinitely, but rather to engage in “diplomatic grandstanding and bazaar bargaining”, says Emre Peker, Europe analyst at Eurasia Group.
The inflection point, says Peker, will be Turkish local elections scheduled for next March. If Erdoğan detects political advantage in chastising the US and wagging his finger at NATO allies still, he can have his lawmakers withhold approval for Sweden until after that vote, if he likes.
Either way, that timeline would – in theory – make it possible to see Swedish meatballs on the menu at the NATO summit in Washington in July, commemorating the 75th anniversary of the alliance.