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How Trump is remaking US public health, with NY Times reporter Apoorva Mandavilli
Listen: In President Trump’s short time in office, he’s already made sweeping changes to US public health policy—from RFK Jr.’s nomination to lead the health department to withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization. On the GZERO World Podcast, New York Times science and global health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli joins Ian Bremmer for an in-depth look at health policy in the Trump administration, and what it could mean, not just for the US, but for the rest of the world. President Trump has made it clear: he wants to slash government spending and remake institutions like the CDC, NIH, and FDA. But are those plans a much-needed correction to an overly bureaucratic system or prescription for the next pandemic? What do we need to know about bird flu and changes to USAID? Bremmer and Mandavilli discuss RFK Jr.’s influence in Trump’s second term and what the future of health and medical policy in America could look like.
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Trump's health agenda—from RFK Jr. to leaving WHO
From RFK Jr.’s nomination to lead the health department to an executive order withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization, President Trump has already made sweeping changes to public health policy, and this may be just the beginning. On GZERO World, New York Times Science and Global Health Reporter Apoorva Mandavilli joins Ian Bremmer for an in-depth look at health and medicine in the second Trump administration—and what it could mean, not just for the US, but for the rest of the world. With bird flu numbers rising in the US and a noted vaccine skeptic poised to become the country's most powerful public health official, should we be worried about potential new pandemics or cuts at the CDC and NIH? Will the FDA endorse RFK’s ideas about raw milk and unfluoridated water? RFK gets a lot right about the need to focus on disease prevention and remove toxins fom our food and environment, but many of his ideas are at odds with mainstream medical science, posing a risk to public health. Bremmer and Mandavilli break down the big stories in healthcare right now, and what the future of the US medical establishment could look like.
"We have a huge problem with trust in this country, and that predates RFK Jr.," Mandavilli says, "Now when you have somebody who has made those comments very openly about the CDC not being trustworthy or the FDA not being trustworthy, and that's who's leading the health department, I think we are in real danger of people [not trusting] anything."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Abortion pills likely headed to Supreme Court, says NYT Mag columnist Emily Bazelon
The issue of abortion pills could soon be taken up by the Supreme Court, New York Times Columnist Emily Bazelon told Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. This comes despite Attorney General Merrick Garland’s announcement that the pills could not be banned by states because of their FDA status.
“That's a pretty basic principle [that] federal regulation gets to trump essentially state regulation,” she said. However, she issued a warning about how the court’s handling of the issue could play out: “Sometimes when rules seem like they generally apply, they can look different in the context of abortion, especially with this conservative court.”
After 50 years of precedent, Bazelon argued that pro-life groups including the Federalist Society have worked for decades to overturn Roe V Wade, while liberals were more complacent and assumed the constitutional right to an abortion was safe.
“You wonder whether the people who care the most are going to triumph in the end,” she added.
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NBA player sparks backlash from China; Bolsonaro's COVID negligence
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the NBA's latest rift with China, Brazil's Senate investigation, and COVID booster shots.
China wipes Boston Celtics from NBA broadcast after the "Free Tibet" speech from Enes Kanter. Is NBA boxing itself into a corner?
Nice mixed sports metaphor there. NBA has some challenges because they are of course the most progressive on political and social issues in the United States among sports leagues, but not when it comes to China, their most important international market. And you've seen that with LeBron James telling everyone about we need to learn better from the Communist Party on issues like Hong Kong and how Daryl Morey got hammered for taking his stance in favor of Hong Kong democracy. Well, Enes Kanter's doing the same thing and he's a second-string center. Didn't even play yesterday and still the Chinese said that they were not going to air any Boston Celtics games. Why? Because he criticized the Chinese government and had some "Free Tibet" sneakers. This is a real problem for a lot of corporations out there, but particularly publicly, the NBA. Watch for a bunch of American politicians to make it harder for the NBA going forward, saying how dare you kowtow to the Chinese when you're all about "Black Lives Matter" inside the United States. No fun.
Brazil's Senate committee accused President Bolsonaro of crimes against humanity for COVID-19 negligence. What's happening there?
Well, they did actually consider accusing him of genocide. They chose not to do that, probably because someone looked into the definition of genocide and realized that that was really stupid. Certainly this is going to make a lot of headlines in Brazil. It's embarrassing for Bolsonaro. None of it's going to pass into law. None of it's going to lead to him being incarcerated or sent to The Hague, but it is one more thing, along with energy price spikes because of drought and their reliance on hydro, because of the economy not doing very well. His popularity right now is in the toilet. It's around 30% and they've got elections next year. Very unlikely that Bolsonaro is able to win. That's the real importance here, is his days are numbered.
FDA is set to approve the "mix and match" approach for COVID booster shots in the US. Will this deepen global vaccine inequality?
I don't know if it would deepen it, but it's going to extend it in the sense that we in the United States have been saying publicly that the vaccine..., this pandemic is not over anywhere until it's over everywhere, which is a great thing to say. But of course it's not in any way true in terms of the way we act. The way we act is as long as we've got our Moderna, we've got our Pfizer and we've got our boosters, we get to live like normal again. While around the world, most of the lower-developed countries haven't even gotten their first shot yet. That's the reality around the world. And that's driving much greater mistrust between wealthy countries and poor countries. At the same time, we have our own political differences that are growing inside the United States.
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Will Joe Manchin thwart Biden's spending? FDA credibility hit
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:
What does the disappointing jobs number mean for the Democrats' agenda?
Well, payroll employment in August came in well under expectations with under 300,000 jobs created. This is in contrast to the last several months, which really saw a torrid pace of job creation as the US started to recover from the pandemic and restrictions were lifted. With new mask mandates and the Delta variant spreading, Americans are slowing down their pace of activity and slowing down spending, which means you could see more economic volatility in the next couple of months. At the same time, Democrats are attempting to find consensus around a major new spending initiative, which would spend up to $3.5 half trillion over the next 10 years. This initiative isn't really about coronavirus pandemic recovery, or even stimulus, it's about expanding the size and scope of government for increased transfer payments and increased subsidies for education services and healthcare and also, of course, on infrastructure. The slowing jobs growth creates more fiscal space for Democrats to borrow more, and that's a real sticking point because you have moderates like Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who says the US is already at their borrowing limit and shouldn't be borrowing more to spend money. This is going to be the major storyline in Washington for the next several months because it's also probably going to be the last big initiative of the Biden administration before the midterm elections next year.
Two top FDA vaccine regulators are about to leave this fall. How will this influence the vaccine rollout?
Well, the FDA has really struggled over the last year with vaccines and with the coronavirus pandemic. There's been mistakes and missteps along the way between the FDA and the Center for Disease Control, both around messaging, the science around the pandemic, and on things like testing kits, where there's been major screw-ups by the federal government. The two top vaccine regulators at the FDA announced they're going to leave, supposedly, according to some reports, because they felt like they were under political pressure to approve booster shots. The White House has said they plan on doing booster shots. They've already authorized them for people who have underlying conditions that make them more vulnerable. These two regulators leaving is just another bump in the road for the FDA. It's going to take a long time for the American health agencies to recover their credibility
Why CIA director Bill Burns met with the Taliban
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on the CIA director's secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban, the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan, and the future of vaccine mandates following the FDA's approval of Pfizer's COVID vaccine.
CIA director Bill Burns held a secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban. How will it impact the ongoing evacuations?
Well, at the very least, you have to think that America's top priority, ensuring that all Americans get out of Afghanistan, given that the US controls nothing on the ground but Kabul Airport, will be facilitated. I would think that that was the reason for him to be there, absolute top priority. That has been successful. If it was a failure, we would've heard something about it by now, and the situation on the ground would be quite different. That is very different though than what happens after August 31st, and whether or not all of the Afghan nationals working with the Americans and in physical danger are going to be let out. So far, I haven't heard that from the Taliban. Certainly that will be a big piece of the negotiations. But better that he's there than not.
What do you expect to come from the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan on Tuesday?
Well, this is interesting because the Brits, who are chairing the G7 this year, really want to ensure that everyone gets out, and that means all the Afghans that have been working with the coalition forces. That means you have the ability to extend beyond August 31st, which President Biden has certainly not said he's been able to do and the Taliban forces have not said they'd agree to. We'll see where it goes. This is going to be a much more contentious G7 than what we saw in Cornwall a couple of months ago, and it'll be very interesting to see whether we have anything like the kind of statements from the Germans, from the French, the Brits criticizing the Biden administration after today's meeting that we did over the last week on Afghanistan. A lot of damage control will be done by President Biden in today's summit.
With FDA approval, are vaccine mandates imminent?
They're happening, and they will ramp up. There are a lot of companies that are going to feel much more comfortable requiring vaccines now that they've been fully approved. Pfizer Comirnaty, the name of their vaccine now, has been approved by the FDA. I also think that a lot of skeptics in the United States will get more comfortable because this was an emergency authorization before, and now it is a fully-approved vaccination the way others that we take, that our children take, have been for decades and decades. I'm hoping that it means good things for the United States in relatively short order. Certainly the numbers of vaccinations over the last couple days, also driven by Delta variant, also going up.What We're Watching: VP Harris in Southeast Asia, FDA approves Pfizer jab, Qatar's first legislative election
Harris' Southeast Asia tour overshadowed by... Afghanistan: It's been a bad week and a half for the Biden administration, which has gotten terrible PR over its disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. But Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to flip the script a bit on a current, week-long tour of Southeast Asia. The main aim of the Veep's visit to Singapore and Vietnam is to shore up relations with Asian partners as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive China, and to emphasize the Biden administration's "pivot" to the Indo-Pacific region more broadly. That's particularly true in Vietnam, which is extremely concerned about China's behavior in the disputed South China Sea. But when Harris held a press conference with Singapore's PM Lee Hsien Loong Monday, hoping to highlight new cooperation on climate change, cyber security, and COVID tracking, she was instead peppered with questions about violence at Kabul's airport and the administration's so-far botched evacuation plans for Americans there.
FDA approves Pfizer jab, will skeptics roll up their sleeves? The US Food and Drug Administration on Monday granted full, formal approval to Pfizer's COVID vaccine, for people 16 and older. Until now, the vaccine has enjoyed only emergency use approval. The difference, in case you are wondering, is that formal approval is based on a larger and longer-term data set. According to Pfizer's numbers, the vaccine is 91 percent effective at preventing severe infections. The FDA's designation opens the way for schools, the military, and other employers to require vaccination against COVID-19 just as they already do for other diseases — including measles, polio, hepatitis — for which there are formally approved vaccines. A big question is whether the FDA move will dent persistent vaccine hesitancy in the US, where only 52 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. A June poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation showed that about a third of unvaccinated adults said they'd get the jab once it received full FDA approval. Well, now it has — let's see what they do.
Qatar elections, better late than never: The small, gas-rich gulf kingdom will hold its first legislative elections ever, when Qataris vote to fill two-thirds of the 45-seat Shura Council on October 2. The remaining 15 seats will continue to be hand-picked by the Emir. The move has been a long time coming: it was 18 years ago that Qataris voted in a referendum to approve a new constitution that called for legislative elections of this kind. The Shura Council's powers are limited, particularly on key issues of defense, foreign policy, and economic policy, but the move is a step forward for democratic representation in a region of repressive monarchies. Nearby Kuwait is currently the only Gulf Arab state that has given much power to a popularly-elected legislature, and it hasn't always gone well. Still, Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani is looking to burnish his forward-looking bonafides ahead of all the attention his country will get during the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
J&J vaccine review will cause hesitancy; Blinken warns China on Taiwan
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week on World In 60: J&J vaccine woes, Blinken warns China, Fukushima water and a large rabbit.
How will the pause of Johnson & Johnson vaccine affect the overall pandemic fight in the United States?
Yeah. Right at it, right? Well, we heard that the FDA has suspended vaccines from J&J because of blood clots. They found six in seven million cases. It's kind of like the suspension of AstraZeneca in Europe. It's likely only going to last for a few days. It's a very small percentage of the total number of vaccines that are being jabbed right now into the arms of Americans. It's not going to really slow America's ability to get everyone vaccinated, but it is going to create more vaccine hesitancy. People at the margins will say, "Is this safe? They said it was fine. Now they're saying it's not okay." I understand why there's enormous caution on the part of the FDA, but I wish, wish, wish the communications had been a little softer around all of this. Also will be a problem in terms of export, as J&J is going to be a piece of that. And again, others around the world will say, "Well, if I don't get Moderna, if I don't get Pfizer, I'm not sure I want to take it at all." So all of this is negative news, though I would still say the United States this year is looking really, really good among major economies in dealing with pandemic.
Secretary of State Blinken recently warned that China interfering with Taiwan would be a "serious mistake". What would an interference it look like?
It could be anything from cyberattack against Taiwan assets to shutdowns or constraints on Taiwanese businessmen and women who make so much of their money in mainland China. You could imagine that you could see some arrests on national security bases of some Taiwanese operating in the United States, general harassment, right? And then, most significantly would be interference with Taiwan's military capabilities. We've already seen a lot more military exercises in contested territory of mainland China, in and around Taiwanese airspace and naval space, water space. So all of this is looking more challenging, the Americans standing up for Taiwan. But Secretary of State Blinken saying very pointedly, the US will help the Taiwanese defend themselves. Did not say the US would come to Taiwan's defense. That is not part of the agreement with the United States. Chinese very aware of that.
Why is Japan dumping contaminated Fukushima water into the ocean?
Well, because they're running out of space to store it, because they've done decontamination around it, but it's still radioactive. Apparently, levels of tritium, as well as other radioactive elements still in the water. It is quite controversial as to whether this is safe or not. The original plan the Japanese government put out was approved by the International Energy Agency about a year ago. There is radioactive wastewater that is disposed of, also evaporating into the atmosphere from other nuclear plants around the world. The Japanese incredibly risk-averse population around this stuff so they're going to be very focused on whether or not this is all being done in a way that is completely unproblematic to the population at large, marine life, you name it. Anyway, I don't think we have the final word from science on this, but clearly something that the Japanese government is going to have to deal with. And by the way, they could continue to store it. They just would have to build additional storage capacity, which is going to cost them money. So, that's the question here. It's all about economics.
Optional kicker question. Where in the world is Darius, the "World's Longest Rabbit"?
Who's into this stuff? So a rabbit, it's a pet, but it's barely a pet. It's apparently the longest rabbit in the world. It's four feet long. It was in England, and it was abducted from the house of the owner. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, Darius is the longest rabbit in the world. That's if Darius is still alive. We'll see. Stay tuned. Next week or not. I probably won't to talk about it again.
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