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Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7
In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.
Five years later, reality imitated art when the countries decided to begin meeting regularly at “BRIC summits,” with the latest occurring in Kazan, Russia, this week. The subsequent inclusion of South Africa upgraded the “s” to a capital letter: the BRICS.
The group, which lacks formal treaties or binding obligations, has always been united more by what it opposes — US dominance of global financial systems — than by what it supports.
After all, it’s a hodgepodge: energy exporters (Brazil and Russia) and importers (China and India), democracies (India and Brazil) and non-democracies (China and Russia), allies (Russia ❤️China) and adversaries (India x China).
But the economic clout of the group is, on paper, formidable. With the addition of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates this year, the BRICS+ economies account for 36% of global GDP – while the G7 group of wealthy democracies amount to just 29%. But, of course, there’s a catch: China and the US each contribute more than half of their respective group’s GDP.
Here’s a look at the economic size, and breakdown, of the BRICS+ and the G7 group it hopes one day to eclipse — not only economically but also geopolitically.
Can Europe become a global superpower?
It’s a critical time for Europe. In the recent European Union elections, voters unhappy with the establishment status quo delivered historic gains for far-right, nationalist parties in countries like France and Germany. But a fractured EU Parliament makes it harder for the ruling centrist coalition to deliver on key priorities like immigration reform and the Green deal. Can the 27 member states come together to address big challenges?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola discusses Europe’s future amid an ongoing migrant crisis, the war in Ukraine, and an economic slowdown. The EU is the world’s largest trading bloc and a regulatory superpower, but Metsola says Europe needs to strengthen its strategic autonomy to avoid getting squeezed by the US and China. Part of that vision includes Ukraine joining the European Union, which Metsola tells Bremmer is unequivocably “win-win” for both sides. But finding consensus among so many countries, cultures, and political parties in the EU government can be a major challenge.
“We’re not yet coherent, I think we've weakened ourselves by being a cacophony of what we think we want,” Metsola says, "We still have not, as a European Union, become better as a whole than individual countries.“
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Austrian, Hungarian, and Czech far-right form new EU coalition ›
- How the EU Parliament elections work ›
- Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers ›
- How Ukraine's EU membership would change Europe ›
- Ian Explains: If the US steps back from Ukraine, can Europe go it alone? ›
- The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order - GZERO Media ›
- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: How does the European Union work?
How does the European Union work, exactly? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the different institutions of the EU and how they work together. In recent EU elections, the centrist European People’s Party held onto a slim majority , pushing back on the rise of far-right nationalist parties that have surged in national elections in places like France and Germany. The EPP will now have to find a way to deliver on key issues like migration reform and the Green Deal using a coalition in European Parliament, no easy task for a body with 720 members that represent some 450 million citizens. But how do EU laws actually get passed? The institutions of the EU can be hard to keep track of: there’s also the European Commision, the European Council, the Council of the EU—admittedly confusing. Ian Bremmer unpacks the seven major institutions that govern the European Union, the world’s largest trading bloc and most ambitious effort at supranational governance, a political experiment that’s turned a historically fractious continent into a unified whole.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
A 'coal is dead' placard is seen during the demonstration. Activists from Friends Of The Earth and other environmental groups gathered outside the Royal Courts of Justice as the legal challenge to the Whitehaven coal mine in Cumbria begins.
Hard Numbers: UK buries coal, Austria’s far right surges, Le Pen faces trial, UN extends but doesn’t expand Haiti mission, Russia spends more on guns (less on butter)
142: After 142 years, the UK government closed the country’s last coal-fired power plant on Monday night. Coal power was a critical factor in the British-born Industrial Revolution of the 18th century, but it wasn’t until 1882 that the British opened the first public coal power plant. The closure is part of the government’s plan to generate 100% of Great Britain’s energy from renewable sources by 2030. Our favorite British coal story? How coal pollution changed the color of the Peppered Moths of Manchester.
29.2: Austria’s Freedom Party became the first far-right party to win an election in the country since World War II, after taking 29.2% of the vote in Sunday’s election by appealing to Austrians worried about immigration, inflation, and the Ukraine war. But it’s a familiar story in Europe these days: A far-right party takes a plurality of the vote, only to find that it lacks an obvious coalition partner to form a government. The incumbent Austrian People’s Party has said it will only work with the Freedom Party if party boss Herbert Kickl renounces any cabinet position. That’s a tough sell – Kickl says he wants to be chancellor.
9: Meanwhile, elsewhere in European right-wing news, Marine Le Pen, the former leader and top candidate of France’s National Rally party, began a nine-week trial in which she and two dozen other party officials are accused of misusing EU funds by using them to pay party staff for political work. Le Pen says the payments were legitimate. If convicted, she faces up to 10 years in prison, fines of several million euros, and possibly being deemed ineligible to run for office. She is considered a top contender in the 2027 presidential election.
1: The UN Security council agreed unanimously on Monday to authorize the UN-backed security force in Haiti for one more year. But a US proposal to make the mission – currently a Kenya-led volunteer force – into a formal UN peacekeeping operation was blocked by Russia and China, which said the current force needs more time to find its footing. Haiti, for its part, has called for a peacekeeping operation as the Kenyan-led force struggles to subdue the powerful gangs that have taken control over vast swathes of the capital.
25: Russia will boost defense spending by 25% next year, as Vladimir Putin doubles down both on his invasion of Ukraine and on the deeper militarization of the economy at home. Social spending, meanwhile, is set to fall by nearly 20%. Heavy spending on defense has helped to insulate Russia’s economy from the effects of Western sanctions, with GDP growing 3.6% last year and forecasters predicting a similar outcome this year. How secure is Putin? Read our recent piece on the endless ends of the Russian president.The Telegram logo.
Telegram and X back down
Score this one Nation-States 2, Tech Tycoons 0?
Pavel Durov, the CEO of the messaging app Telegram who was arrested recently in France on charges that his platform facilitated criminal activity and was refusing to help law enforcement investigate, has changed his tune.
After initially claiming it was “absurd” to hold a platform responsible for illicit content, Telegram now says it will share information with law enforcement “in response to valid legal requests.”
The about-face came just days after self-styled “free speech” crusader Elon Muskclimbed down in his battle with Brazil. To refresh: Last month, Musk rejected a Brazilian court order for X to deactivate certain disinformation accounts, refused to pay relevant fines, removed X’s local legal rep, and launched a meme war against Brazil’s controversial disinformation czar.
As a result, X was banned outright in the 200-million-strong country, and that seems to have turned the tables. Now, the company is reportedly ready to take down the accounts, reappoint a rep in Brazil, and pay fines.
Depending on your politics, you may see all of this as a victory for the nation-state (nearly undefeated since the Peace of Westphalia, as GZERO’s Matt Kendrick points out) or as a hit to free speech and privacy. What’s your view? Share with us here.
European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier talks to journalists in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018.
France gets a government - but how long will it last?
A droite, s’il vous plaît! Three months after France’s snap election produced a hung parliament, President Emmanuel Macronfinally unveiled a new government with a distinct rightward tilt.
Led by conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the new 39-member cabinet includes ten key figures from the establishment center-right Republican Party, including staunch conservative Bruno Retailleau as interior minister, overseeing immigration. Macron loyalist Sébastien Lecornu will remain defense minister, while Antoine Armand, a low-profile member of Macron’s centrist alliance, took finance.
The only left-winger in the cabinet is independent Didier Migaud, the new justice minister.
Given that the leftwing New Popular Front alliance won the most seats, Macron’s choices put the government on thin ice.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon dubbed it"a government of the general election losers" and the New Popular Front has threatened a no-confidence motion. That could come as early as October, when Barniermust submit the government’s 2025 budget plan.
Barnier may need to draw support from rightwing parties, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. But that’s dicey too. Although National Rally has no government portfolios, it has enough votes to bring it down if it works with the left wing. Cooperating with archrivals might prove too high a hurdle, but we’re watching how Barnie navigates the dangerous waters.French political leaders
Macron has put France’s fate in Le Pen’s hands
President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of Michel Barnier as France’s new prime minister on Sept. 5 has put an end to two months of political deadlock and disarray triggered by the Jul. 7 parliamentary election result. But with the far right’s Marine Le Pen having emerged as kingmaker in a deeply fractured parliament, the respite for Macron, Barnier, and France could prove short-lived – and costly.
Since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has had majority governments aligned with the president, majority governments opposed to the president (“cohabitations”), and – in the last two years – minority governments that have struggled to enact the president’s legislative agenda but have nonetheless had enough support in parliament to evade censure.
That era of broad stability is now over. Macron’s surprise election returned a hung National Assembly split into three-and-a-half ideological blocs. For the first time in 62 years, no party, bloc, or natural alliance won anywhere near the 289 out of 577 seats needed to govern comfortably or to survive censure. This means that any government that emerged was bound to be the most fragile in recent French history.
Following a brief Olympic truce, Macron finally launched negotiations to form a new government on Aug. 23. The left-wing New Popular Front insisted that it was entitled to elevate a little-known radical to the top job who’d reverse the president’s agenda and blow up France’s deficit, despite holding only one-third (193) of deputies in the assembly. Macron, who has the sole constitutional right to nominate the prime minister, refused.
Such a government, he argued correctly, would have zero chance of surviving immediate censure by Macron’s center (166 seats), the ex-Gaullist center right (47 seats), and Le Pen’s far right (142 seats). Outraged, the left took to the streets in force on Sept. 7, accusing Macron of “trampling democracy” and “staging a coup.” But it’s hard to argue with the president’s math.
And math is the main reason why Barnier was named to the post.
Yes, the 73-year-old former Brexit negotiator and veteran of the center right is a pragmatic dealmaker with an independent streak who would build a coalition of “national unity” from center right to center left. Barnier also promised to let Macron do his own thing on foreign affairs and defense, and he pledged to try to preserve the bulk of the president’s labor market and pension reforms. But he was far from Macron’s first choice. The two men had clashed in the past, and Macron exhausted several other options before finally nominating him.
Here’s the kicker, though: Unlike Macron’s first picks for the role, the former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the center-right president of the northern French region Xavier Bertrand, Le Pen signaled that her party would not join the left in an immediate no-confidence vote against Barnier. And without her implicit blessing, no government could hope to survive contact with the National Assembly, as the left is committed to voting down candidates from the center and right.
Le Pen’s willingness to passively tolerate Barnier’s appointment suggests that, at this moment, she believes her political interests are best served by appearing to be on the side of stability rather than chaos. Moreover, she has reportedly been promised that the new government will advance her party’s policy priorities on immigration, the cost of living, and proportional representation voting – the latter a long-standing demand of the National Rally to better its chances of winning future elections.
How far will this constructive approach go? We will get a glimpse into the limits of Le Pen’s strategy when the new government is confronted with its first and toughest test in a few weeks. Facing the prospect of a destructive fiscal crisis, Barnier and his new finance minister (whoever he picks) will have to propose some way of filling a €16 billion hole in this year’s budget and introduce a deficit-cutting draft budget for 2025 by Oct. 1 to prevent punishment by the European Commission and financial markets. Both the amended 2024 budget and the draft 2025 budget will require far-right votes to pass the National Assembly.
Le Pen will then face an uncomfortable but clear choice. If she supports (or acquiesces to) draconian spending cuts, she won’t face an internal revolt, but she’ll be accused by the left and even some on the right of being a tool of the establishment. But if she precipitates the government’s collapse only weeks into her newfound kingmaker role, she’ll be blamed for plunging France into an unprecedented political and economic crisis. She will also potentially spoil her best chance to influence the country’s direction, legitimize the National Rally, and win the presidency in her fourth attempt in 2027. On balance, Le Pen will probably go the “responsible” way in this instance, choosing to edge Barnier’s government toward her preferred policies while keeping her veto powder dry for future legislative priorities.
And that is precisely the problem for Macron and Barnier. Even if they manage to steer France out of this budget crisis, Le Pen’s calculus could change at any moment – and it will be within her power to bring down the government whenever she pleases. All she has to do is add her party’s 142 assembly votes to the 193 held by the four-party left alliance – which is furious at Macron and will undoubtedly introduce, not to mention support, countless censure motions – to produce many more votes than the 289 needed for a majority.
Macron’s shock election has placed the fate of France’s fragile new government in the hands of his archrival. Quite the failure for a leader who had made it his life’s mission to consign Le Penism to the dustbin of history. Whether or not she ends up succeeding him in 2027, Le Pen has never been closer to the levers of power than she is today.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a joint press conference with Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the Locarno room at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in London, Britain, September 10, 2024.
US accuses Iran and China of supplying Russian war machine
Iran and China have found themselves in the crosshairs of accusations from Washington. They stand accused of being Russia’s partners in crime in its ongoing war against Ukraine.
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Tuesday that China is giving Russia “very substantial” support for its war machine in exchange for top-secret Russian submarine and missile technology. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy accused Iran of supplying Moscow with short-range ballistic missiles and announced new sanctions on both countries, which will also be enforced by France and Germany.
Tehran denies involvement, but the West knows Iran has been sending Moscow so-called “suicide drones,” and ballistic missiles are seen as an escalation. North Korea, meanwhile, has been providing Russia with missiles since at least January, which has brought Moscow and Pyongyang closer, to the chagrin of both Beijing and Washington. Eurasia Group, our parent company, highlighted the growing affinity between Russia, Iran, and North Korea as one of its top risks for 2024.
But the debate around Beijing’s support of Moscow – China also denies supplying Russia for its war effort – has thus far focused on “dual-use” items, such as mechanical components that can be used in drones and missiles.
Campbell’s unambiguous but vague accusation could strain Sino-American ties despite efforts by both sides – US and Chinese military officials just held high-level talks aimed at keeping open channels of communication – to stabilize the relationship. He did not lay out plans for sanctions or other possible reactions to China’s alleged support, but Blinken and Lammy will be in Kyiv tomorrow, and we will be watching how their meetings go in light of the revelations.