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National Rally leader Marine Le Pen poses prior to an interview on the evening news broadcast of French TV channel TF1, in Boulogne-Billancourt, outside Paris, France, on March 31, 2025.
Can France’s Marine Le Pen run again?
National Rally leader Marine Le Pen was found guilty by a French court on Monday for embezzling European Parliament funds. She was sentenced to four years (with two years suspended and the remainder under house arrest with electronic monitoring) and faces a five-year ban from running for public office.
Coup de grâce? Le Pen shared her anger with French voters. “Like you, I’m scandalized, indignant, but this indignation, this feeling of injustice, is an additional push to the fight that I fight for [the voters],” she said on French television Monday night.
Le Pen’s lawyer said she will appeal the decision, which will likely lead to a retrial in 2026 — months before the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen can also petition the Constitutional Council to review her case and ultimately decide her eligibility. Last week, this court ruled that local politicians can be barred from office immediately if they are convicted of a crime — but this won’t apply to national figures like the National Rally’s longtime leader.
“Le Pen will now seek to make her appeal explicitly political, arguing before the Constitutional Council that she is too important a politician to ban and that doing so would be an affront to French democracy,” said Rahman. Even so, her route back to eligibility won’t be easy.
Next in line. If Le Pen is ultimately barred from running, National Rally President Jordan Bardella would be the most likely candidate to succeed her. The clean-shaven millennial, who grew up in the Paris suburbs, has tried to expand the party’s tent by courting younger voters and distancing the party from Le Pen’s father, the Holocaust-denying founder of National Rally.
Will Marine Le Pen's conviction really keep her out of French politics?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Turning to France where Marine Le Pen, who has long been the leader of the National Front, now renamed National Rally Party, and principal contender her party to win French elections in 2027, which would be an absolute turning point in French elections, as meaningful for France as Trump's second win in 2024 in the United States, has been found guilty in a criminal court in France of embezzlement charges up to $500,000 directly and millions of dollars in terms of mishandling the way European funds were being used for staffers, including her sister and her best friend and a bodyguard. Not a political case at all, actually just a criminal court. Nobody arguing that the judge is particularly politicized here. And while two of the years of the jail term's suspended, the first two years, she has to wear an ankle bracelet. So we'll probably get a video of that real soon. I'm sure it'll be fashionable, since it's France.
But the point is, this would prevent her from running in 2027. And that would mean that Bardella, who is number two essentially in that party, all of 29 years old, nowhere near as popular as Le Pen and would completely tank the ability of the National Rally to win, would become the candidate. It is too early to say that this ban is going to stand up. She has an appeals process. She can bring it to the French equivalent of the Supreme Court, a constitutional counsel, to answer what'll be called a priority question of whether her immediate five-year ban from politics before her appeals against the conviction can stand as valid. And there's a very good argument that has been made in the plaintiff's favor in recent cases that this would not stand. And that while her appeals are going on, she would still be eligible to run, and indeed, she'd be able to go through this appeals process through 2027.
So what now looks like and is being reported in the English language press as she's being thrown out of politics probably isn't going to stand. So in other words, Le Pen out for now. Le Pen probably back soon. And France, in 2027, a really significant, maybe watershed moment from where European politics are going to go. Because if you look at politics right now, you have Friedrich Merz, probably shortly after Easter going to be putting together his grand coalition government, very strongly pro-Europe, very centrist government. You have Meloni, who certainly has a good relationship with Trump, but nonetheless, very strongly pro-EU and very much wanting to act as a bridge to support the EU in using her relations in the United States to be effective in that regard. Macron same, and even Keir Starmer in the UK, post-Brexit, yes, but wanting to be seen as a European leader. Hence taking the lead with Macron in all of these Ukraine summits. That's for now.
But as we look forward to what politics in 2027, '28, '29 look like in Europe, we could easily see that in Germany, suddenly Alternative für Deutschland could do better. Especially if the economy is not doing well. And could force the Germans to be in a position where they would have to enter a coalition with them. In France, very much the National Rally Party and Le Pen still in contention. In the UK, the Reform Party in contention too. So the end of Trump's term for Europe and the transatlantic relationships looks radically different than the beginning of Trump's term. And today's news headlines on France are a blip, not a structural shift. Watch this space as Le Pen is still very relevant indeed. That's it from me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
France puts the AI in laissez-faire
France positioned itself as a global leader in artificial intelligence at last week’s AI Action Summit in Paris, but the gathering revealed a country more focused on attracting investment than leading Europe's approach to artificial intelligence regulation.
The summit, which drew global leaders and technology executives from around the world on Feb. 10-11, showcased France’s shift away from Europe’s traditionally strict tech regulation. French President Emmanuel Macron announced $113 billion in domestic AI investment while calling for simpler rules and faster development — a stark contrast to the EU’s landmark AI Act, which is gradually taking effect across the continent.
Esprit d’innovation
This pivot toward a business-friendly approach has been building since late 2023, when France tried unsuccessfully to water down provisions in the EU’s AI Act to help domestic firms like Mistral AI, the $6 billion Paris-based startup behind the chatbot Le Chat.
“France sees an opportunity to improve its sluggish economy via the development and promotion of domestic AI services and products,” said Mark Scott, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. “Where France does stand apart from others is its lip service to the need for some AI rules, but only in ways that, inevitably, support French companies to compete on the global stage.”
Nuclear power play
France does have unique advantages in its AI: plentiful nuclear power, tons of foreign investment, and established research centers from Silicon Valley tech giants Alphabet and Meta. The country plans to dedicate up to 10 gigawatts of nuclear power to a domestic AI computing facility by 2030 and struck deals this month with both the United Arab Emirates and the Canadian energy company Brookfield.
About 70% of France’s electricity comes from nuclear — a clean energy source that’s become critical to the long-term vision of AI companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
France vs. the EU
But critics say France’s self-promotion undermines broader European efforts. “While the previous European Commission focused on oversight and regulation, the new cohort appears to follow an entirely different strategy,” said Mia Hoffman, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. She warned that EU leaders under the second Ursula von der Leyen-led Commission, which began in September 2024, are “buying into the regulation vs. innovation narrative that dominates technology policy debates in the US.”
The summit itself reflected these tensions. “It looked more like a self-promotion campaign by France to attract talent, infrastructure, and investments, rather than a high-level international summit,” said Jessica Galissaire of the French think tank Renaissance Numérique. She argued that AI leadership “should be an objective for the EU and not member states taken individually.”
This France-first approach marks a significant departure from a more united European tech policy, suggesting France may be more interested in competing with the US and China as a player on the world stage than in strengthening Europe’s collective position in AI development.
Trump-Putin chat over Ukraine "deeply" worries Europe
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from Munich, Germany, where the Munich Security Conference is just about to kick off. And it is going to be a historic meeting, and not necessarily in a good way.
Everyone I've been speaking to here, deeply concerned about the sudden conversation, 90-minute conversation, with a full readout from, both the Kremlin and from the United States, between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Not so much concerned that a conversation took place, rather that it happened, and Trump is engaging unilaterally without coordinating in advance with the Ukrainians or the Europeans. And in that regard, very, very different than what we've seen over the first three years of the war.
Look, there's no question, everyone does want to see the war wind down. Everyone would love to see a ceasefire. The question is, how and what does the NATO alliance look like after that? What does Europe look like in terms of its engagement, its trust with the United States, the transatlantic relationship? And, of course, what happens with Ukraine? The statements that have been made by Trump and by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are things that we've heard a lot about privately, not just from the Trump administration, from the Europeans, from the Biden administration too, the idea that NATO membership is not in the cards, long-term, if there's going to be some sort of formal peace agreement, that Ukraine is going to have to give up some kind of territory, not that they should, not that that's reasonable, not they don't have territorial integrity, but there's no way for them to get back all the territory that they had back in 2014. Those are things that have now been said publicly by the Americans. But they are being said both unilaterally and also in advance of any negotiation. In other words, concessions are being made to the Russians before both sides sit down. And that is, of course, a very significant concern, for the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
There is also a question what kind of security guarantees would be provided to Ukraine? According to the United States, certainly will not involve Americans on the ground. No troops. Would be European troops. They're the ones that have to do the bulk of the lifting. They're the ones that have to ensure that there was a response if Ukraine were attacked again, after a ceasefire. Now, it's not that the Americans are suddenly washing their hands of all of this. In fact, the first cabinet official to go to Kiev from the Trump administration, just met with Zelensky in the last 24-hours; that’s Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. Why Treasury? Because Trump is trying to get something for giving something. It's transactional, as he always is. And in this case, focusing on critical minerals from Ukraine. Nominally, the number is some $500 billion of what would be Ukrainian resources to the United States in return for ongoing, US military support for Ukraine.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “This is selfish, the Americans shouldn't be doing this.” The Ukrainian president, who actually has to work with the Americans going forward, unlike Scholz, saying, “What a great offer. Happy to talk to you. Want to find a way to make this work?” So, on the one hand, it's not as if the United States is leaving Ukraine high and dry. And certainly, a level of engagement between the Americans and the Russians is very important. It’s essential going forward. But of course, what Putin wants is a deal not only to his favor, but not just about Ukraine. He wants to be talking just to the Americans, and he wants to be talking to them about missile defense, about NATO enlargement, about a whole range of issues that he has, that he takes issue with. And that's something that Trump is perfectly interested in.
At the end of the day, Trump is a lot more interested in cutting a deal for himself that allows the Americans to focus a lot more on China and on Asia, from a security perspective, than working with the Europeans to try to do something collectively on Ukraine. And this is the biggest challenge and also the biggest difference between Trump and Biden, in terms of foreign policy. Biden fundamentally believe that a strong Europe, coordinated with the United States, was long-term in American interests. President Trump does not. He believes that a strong Europe is a bad thing. He wants to see more exits, like Brexit, from other countries. He supports Euro-skeptic movements across Europe. He would much rather have individual negotiations with individual European countries where the Americans are stronger.
What does that mean for the Munich Security Conference? What does it mean for NATO? What does it mean for the transatlantic relationship? Long-term, nothing good. Final point here, the Europeans are taking this seriously, but it's late. They've been told, by Americans for several administrations now, they need to be spending more time and more money on their own defense, their own collective security. Macron has talked about it a fair amount in France. The Polish government is certainly taking the lead on that, especially after the Russians invade Ukraine. But most European governments aren't taking it nearly as seriously and aren't prepared to spend the money. And that reality, for decades now, made much more stark and severe with the Russian invasion in 2014 of Ukraine, which the Europeans did virtually nothing about, and now, when 2022, you've got Trump coming in and saying, “I'm not going to do this,” that's forcing the Europeans in a much more stark way, but also much too late for them to get their act together, in my view.
So, we'll see what we see over the next couple of days, but this is going to be a very, again, historic Munich Security Conference. Glad to be here, and we'll talk to you soon.
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during the plenary session of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit at the Grand Palais in Paris, France, on Feb. 11, 2025.
France’s nuclear power supply to fuel AI
France has real AI ambitions — and nuclear energy might be the key to unlocking them. Ahead of the AI Action Summit, which kicked off on Monday at the Grand Palais in Paris, the French government announced $113 billion in new investments in artificial intelligence at the summit, investments that will be powered by 1 gigawatt of dedicated nuclear power.
The initiative, spearheaded by the British data center company FluidStack, will begin construction in the third quarter of 2025. It seeks to achieve a similar scale to Stargate, the US government-backed project to expand the data center capacity of industry leader OpenAI.
The Wall Street Journal reports that France has 57 nuclear reactors at 18 separate plants, generating two-thirds of its national energy supply from nuclear, a clean energy source. Additionally, it had surplus energy last year, which it exported.The Amazon logo is being displayed on a smartphone in this photo illustration in Brussels, Belgium, on June 10, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Amazon’s spending blitz, Cal State gives everyone ChatGPT, a $50 AI model, France and UAE shake hands
500,000: More than half a million new people will gain access to a specialized version of ChatGPT after OpenAI struck a deal with California State University, which has 460,000 students and 63,000 faculty members across 23 campuses. Students and faculty will be able to use a specialized version of the chatbot that can assist with tutoring, study guides, and administrative tasks for staff. The price of the deal is unclear.
50: Researchers at Stanford University and the University of Washington trained a large language model they say is capable of “reasoning” like the higher-end models from OpenAI and Anthropic. The catch? They did it while spending only $50 in compute credits. The new model, called s1, is “distilled” from a Google model called Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental, a process that allows training fine-tuned models based on larger ones.
1: France and the United Arab Emirates struck a deal to develop a 1 gigawatt AI data center on Thursday, ahead of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris. It’s unclear where the data center will be located, but the agreement means that it will serve both French and Emirati AI efforts.
French President Emmanuel Macron receives Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Jan. 28, 2025.
France weighs EU troop deployment to Greenland
Geopolitics are heating up in the Arctic. Inan interview Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Paris had started talking with Copenhagen about sending troops to Greenland, and that the Danes are “open to considering it if our security interests are at stake.” When asked whether the US would invade Greenland, Barrot said, “That won’t happen … No one has any interest in entering into conflict with the European Union.” However, he added that “if Denmark requests the solidarity of the European Union member states, France will be ready to respond.”
Barrot isn’t the only European politician speculating on the need for military defense of Greenland. On Monday, the EU’s Military Committee head, Austrian Gen. Robert Brieger,floated the possibility of deploying EU troops to the island. And during a recent visit to Berlin by Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholzstressed that “Borders must not be moved by force – to whom it may concern” – a not-so-subtle jab at US President Donald Trump, who has spoken about taking Greenland.
How might a deployment of French troops be received in Washington? Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen says the US president would likely see it as a challenge. “Trump would see any move by France to send troops to Greenland as an escalation from what is, to him, a purchase attempt,” he says.
“It would give Trump or those around him a convenient and tangible justification for NATO pullback; if France deploys troops to counter US interests, why should the US expend resources on their defense?”
So far, the Danes are playing it cool. On a whirlwind tour of three European capitals this week, Frederiksen said she had “no reason to believe that there is any military threat to Greenland or Denmark,” but her government recently announceda €2 billion investment in Arctic defense, including three new navy vessels. When asked about the relationship between Europe and Trump, Frederiksen commented, “I think everyone in Europe can see that it will be a different collaboration now.”Re-elected Croatian President Zoran Milanovic with wife Sanja Music Milanovic celebrate after winning Croatia's presidential election ON January 12, 2025 in Zagreb, Croatia.
Hard Numbers: Croatia’s populist prez, Sweden sails forth, Mayotte hunkers down again, Hindus commence world’s largest religious ceremony
74: Populist Croatian President Zoran Milanovic won an impressive landslide reelection on Sunday, taking 74% of the vote. His office is largely ceremonial, but the overwhelming margin of victory should send a message to Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic – in power since 2016 – about the changing mood of the country.
3: Sweden, NATO’s newest member state, announced its Navy would contribute up to three warships to the alliance’s efforts to secure the Baltic Sea from Russia. The Swedish coast guard will also contribute a further four ships, with seven on standby. With increased resources, NATO aims to prevent possible provocations like severing undersea communication cables, 10 of which have been damaged since 2023.
1: Nearly one month to the day since the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte was devastated by Cyclone Chido, Tropical Storm Dikeledi brought more inundating rains and strong winds to the island. Over 200 people were still missing from the first storm, which killed at least 39 and injured over 5,000 while destroying entire neighborhoods, and the French government has deployed over 4,000 emergency personnel and security forces to the island.
400 million: At least 400 million pilgrims are expected to kick off the Maha Kumbh Mela festival on Monday in the Indian city of Prayagraj, where pilgrims will immerse themselves at the confluence of the Ganga and Yamuna Rivers over six weeks. Hindus believe the mystical Saraswati River will intermingle in the mundane waters and cleanse worshippers’ souls — but the government faces a big logistical challenge: This will be the world’s largest-ever religious gathering, and officials have assembled 150,000 tents, 3,000 kitchens, 145,000 lavatories, all served by 450,000 new electric connections, protected by 40,000 policemen, and transported by 98 special trains making over 3,300 trips.