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Rescue teams work amid rubble in the aftermath of an earthquake in a location given as Shigatse City, Tibet Autonomous Region, China, January 7, 2025, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
Hard Numbers: Deadly Tibet earthquake, Laken Riley bill passed, Another BRICS in the wall, Remembering Charlie Hebdo massacre
126: At least 126 people have died following a major 7.1-magnitude earthquake that struck Tibet and parts of Nepal on Tuesday. The exact death toll is still unknown as the rough terrain in the world’s highest mountains makes it difficult to access affected communities. Dozens more people are believed to be trapped in rubble, and China’s government has deployed over 3,000 rescue workers to save as many as possible.
264-159: The US House of Representatives on Tuesday passed the so-called Laken Riley Act mandating the detention of undocumented immigrants accused of certain minor crimes by a margin of 264-159. It had bipartisan support, with 48 Democrats voting for the bill, as the party faces pressure to toughen up on immigration.
10: Indonesia became the 10th member of the BRICS multilateral organization on Tuesday, as new President Prabowo Subianto attempts to position his country as one of the leading emerging economies. He’ll need to watch his step, however, as incoming US President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on countries that attempt to displace the US dollar, which BRICS has long set as one of its aims.
10: France marked the 10-year anniversary of the brutal terrorist massacre of the staff of Charlie Hebdo magazine by two al-Qaida-linked gunmen on Tuesday. The terrorists killed 12 people in retaliation for the magazine publishing cartoons depicting the Islamic prophet Mohammed, prompting a massive outpouring of support for the slain staff, whom many French and European voters see as having died in the name of freedom of speech and thought.France National Front presidential candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen addresses a political rally in Lille on Feb. 25, 2007.
Father of the French far right dies
Jean-Marie Le Pen, whose ultranationalist and conservative views enraged millions but also shaped the contemporary French political scene, died on Tuesday at 96.
Le Pen was a far-right fixture of French politics for nearly five decades as a legislator in the French and European parliaments, and as founder and leader of the National Front party, which he founded in the early 1970s.
What were his politics? A theatrical orator and a fierce opponent of immigration – he sought the “purification” of France and a return to traditional Catholic values – Le Pen’s rhetoric often veered towards xenophobia, homophobia, racism, and antisemitism. At least half a dozen times he was convicted of either inciting racial hatred or denying the Holocaust.
And yet, beginning in the 1970s, he, along with anti-tax advocate Pierre Poujade, amassed a dedicated following among a slice of the French public who resented the governing elite, struggled with economic hardship, and viewed immigration from France’s former colonies in Africa and the Middle East as a threat to their livelihoods and French culture.
Le Pen ran for the presidency five times. He never won but he came closest to the prize in 2002, when he made it to a runoff against Jacques Chirac, taking nearly 20% of the vote.
Ultimately, his more extreme rhetoric came to cap the appeal of his party. When his daughter, Marine, inherited the organization from him 15 years ago, it was something she sought to address.
“He gave her a family business,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group. “But she had to change the brand.”
While she kept the focus on limiting immigration and protecting French cultural values, she distanced herself from his antisemitic and homophobic rhetoric, expelling him from the party, and changing the name to National Rally.
The party has surged in popularity in recent years. Politics in France – as elsewhere in Europe and the US – have shifted rightward in ways that were hard to imagine even during the height of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s polarizing influence in the early 2000s.
In 2022, Marine got more than 40% of the vote in the presidential runoff against Emmanuel Macron. And last summer, National Rally won the first round of France’s snap elections outright for the first time.
Le Pen’s legacy continues to polarize French politics. Far-right TV host and former presidential candidate Eric Zemmoursaid Le Pen “was among the first to alert France to the existential threats that awaited it.” Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, meanwhile, said that “the fight against the man is over” but that “the fight against the hatred, racism, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism that he spread continues.” Macron, for his part, said Le Pen’s legacy “is now a matter for history to judge."Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the opening session of the 19th Summit of the Francophonie at the Grand Palais in Paris, France, on Oct. 5, 2024.
France fades in Africa as Ivory Coast cuts ties
The Ivory Coast has ordered French forces to leave the country by August 2025. In a New Year’s Eve address, President Alassane Ouattara exhorted Ivorians to “be proud of our army, whose modernization is now effective.”
While Ivory Coast achieved independence in 1960, it is still home to 600 French troops, the biggest remaining contingent in West Africa. It also hosts a French military base in Abidjan, which will be turned over in January and renamed after Gen. Ouattara Thomas d'Aquin, the first chief of staff of the Ivorian Army.
The announcement from Abidjan follows Chad’s decision last month to remove French troops, the latest in a wave of expulsions from former colonies in recent years. France withdrew from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger after a series of coups, and will be leaving Senegal by 2025. Anti-colonial sentiment and protests against a lack of benefits from the former colonial power have seen over 70% of African countries cut military ties with Paris, leaving only Djibouti and Gabon, with 1,500 and 350 troops, respectively.
France out, who’s in? France’s exit leaves a vacuum that other powers, including Russia, China, and Turkey have sought to fill as African nations battle Islamic insurgents. However, Russia’s Wagner Group had been accused of human rights abuses and violence in the Sahel has reportedly worsened since France withdrew.
Ukraine kills top Russian general: What it means for the war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Ukraine assassinated a top Russian general on a Moscow sidewalk. Is this a significant or dangerous escalation?
I think it's a significant escalation in the sense that the highest-ranked Russian official who has been killed by Ukraine in the war has been assassinated in Russia. And it's the kind of thing that, frankly, we've seen from Israel in terms of top officials, Lebanon and Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, in Iran. So I mean, this kind of asymmetric warfare, in addition to the fighting on the front lines, is something that we're increasingly getting used to everywhere. But of course, not so much from the weaker power, in this case, Ukraine.
And what we're seeing is an escalation on both sides. More Russian missile attacks, larger numbers, more damaging, more efforts to take territory, more significant than early in the war by the Russians in Ukraine. And more Ukrainian efforts to do damage to Russia before negotiations start to get them both in a better position. Is it more dangerous? A little bit it is. But it also shows that negotiations are coming soon.
With the recent collapse of both France and Germany's governments what kind of turmoil does it create for the EU bloc?
It just means a less strong European Union because the replacements for these governments are not all aligned in the same direction. In France, it's going to be internal fighting between foreign policy run by Macron and domestic policy run by a series of prime ministers, and very challenging to get a strong coordinated support for the EU. In Germany, a very weak Scholz coalition is going to be replaced by probably reasonably weak center-right coalition.
We see a level of populism, nationalism getting stronger in outcomes for European elections across the board. And some of that is a very challenging economic environment that is not rebounding the way the United States is. Some of that is very strong opposition to all of the refugees. Migrants a bigger problem in Europe than it is in the United States. And part of it is upset that they don't have the sovereignty to respond because of the European Union, and that's an easy thing to make into a bogeyman. So for all of those reasons, I think the EU is going to get a little weaker while it's been getting stronger over the last 10 years.
Why does Trump say Turkey "holds the key" to Syria's future?
Well, one, because the Americans under Trump are likely to remove the small number of troops that the United States has had operating in the north. And that means that Turkey is the country that is most capable and also most aligned with the United States to respond, to take over that position to lead the fight against ISIS.
Also, if you're Turkey to lead the fight to contain the Kurds, which is not so aligned with what the Americans want. They'll also be key to reconstruction. The money will come largely from the EU, but the reconstruction on the ground will largely be done by the Turks. So for both of those reasons, if there's any international player that is going to be critical to what happens in Syria, it's not going to be the United States. It's not going to be the Russians that have been forced out. It's not going to be Iranians that aren't playing the state's different role anymore. It's going to be America's NATO ally, Turkey.
French Gendarmerie forces cross a damaged area in the aftermath of Cyclone Chido, in Mayotte, France December 15, 2024.
France rushes aid to Mayotte, devastated by cyclone
France rushed aid to Mayotte on Monday, with death estimates running into the thousands after the most powerful cyclone in nearly a century devastated the small Indian Ocean island overnight. The Red Cross described the destruction as “unimaginable” with photos showing streets completely blocked with rubble, entire hillside neighborhoods crushed into chaos, and rural areas cut off by debris.
Time is running short: The storm left much of the island without water or electricity, and survivors are reportedly beginning to go hungry in some areas. Residents in the capital, Mamoudzou, lined up at the few functional stores searching for basic supplies, while rescue teams literally cut their way into the hinterland through downed trees.
Mayotte is the poorest French territory — and by extension, the poorest part of the EU — with median annual disposable income about 1/8th that of Paris, and three-quarters of the population in poverty. Situated between Mozambique and Madagascar, it has become a destination for migrants from southeastern Africa, who mistakenly believe landing on Mayotte can open a pathway to Europe. The underinvestment and social changes have led to repeated unrest over the last decade, with the French army deploying to quell riots over water shortages last year.
We’re watching what rescue teams discover as they re-establish links to rural areas, how many souls were lost in the storm, and whether the French government’s response can help re-establish trust in the far-flung territory. Remember that earlier this year, one of France’s other overseas possessions, New Caledonia, suffered weeks of unrest stemming from similar underinvestment and political alienation.
Can Syria rebuild to welcome returning refugees?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from San Francisco, United States.
with all of the millions of Syrian refugees that you find in Europe, what's got to be the consequences for them of the fall of the Assad regime?
Well, the first thing that's happened is that European countries have imposed new asylum applications from Syria. That's fairly logical. But the bigger question is, of course, to which is that it will be possible for these people to return. Very many of them want to. There have been a huge number of people who've already returned, primarily from Turkey. But that's going to be dependent upon stability in the governance of Syria. That's still an open question for that. And secondly, economic reconstruction. That is both humanitarian aid and then lifting eventually the economic sanctions so that there is the possibility of bringing the country back again and people having the possibility to go back. Let's see, let's hope, and let's work on that.
What's the nature of the big agreement that is now being concluded with the European Union and the Mercosur countries of South America?
It's been negotiated for a very long time. It's a free trade agreement. It's a partnership agreement. It is going to be the biggest such in the world. It's two huge economies. Significant benefits in reducing trade and opening up for more of trade to the benefit of the European economy, to the benefit of the economies of the Latin American countries. There's still opposition to it in some European countries, notably France. That has to do with the French farmers fearing competition from more competitive Brazilian perhaps beef or whatever it is. That, has to be said, is something that is good for the European consumers. So slight battle ahead inside the European Union, but hopefully it will go through. And as I said, the biggest such deal that the world has seen so far.
Marine Tondelier, of Les Ecologistes party, talks to journalists next to colleagues as they leave a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 10. They had met with the French president as part of consultations aimed at appointing a new prime minister.
Macron works to end France’s political deadlock
France finds itself unable to form a government and pass a budget because Macron called an election for July that empowered both right- and left-wing hardliners with no political bloc winning a majority. France has no prime minister at the moment because these hardliners ousted Michel Barnier – who held his post for just 90 days – in a no-confidence vote. That’s the shortest tenure for any PM in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
For now, France’s Green Party says it won’t join a “national interest” government. The Socialists insist they will only support a left-wing prime minister, a non-starter for conservatives.
Opinion: The world prepares its go bags
The abundance of volatility in the global system since at least the start of the pandemic has meant that we should expect more geopolitical risk rather than less. Now, in addition to multiple ongoing conflicts, a year of electoral instability, and pandemic hangovers, the return of Donald Trump as the US president injects further unpredictability into this landscape.
Already since his reelection, an unusual set of waves have crested. In South Korea – a key US ally – the declaration of martial law last week stunned the domestic and international audience. After widespread protests broke out, President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a quick (but not immediate) retraction with more fallout yet to come. Elsewhere, in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote after parliamentary budget talks stalled. The measure reveals the fractures and radicalized forces that continue to plague one of Europe’s leading economies. And in Syria, Islamist militants turned Aleppo and Damascus into a hot zone once again – raising tensions in an already active neighborhood – before spectacularly overthrowing Bashar Assad’s government on Saturday.
Trump is, of course, not responsible for any of these developments. But the world is on edge. His posts in recent weeks on Truth Social have done little to assuage the anxieties and instead serve as kerosene to various burning fires. Trump roiled markets in late November when he announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The market remarkably found the news surprising despite Trump’s avowal throughout his 2024 election campaign that he would again rely on the tariff lever as president.
More recently, Trump posted to warn that if the hostages held by Hamas are not released before his inauguration there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” Trump’s commitment to “hit harder” those responsible at a historic level strikes a distinctly different tone than the one regional actors have become accustomed to with Joe Biden’s administration.
In response to the preexisting condition of volatility and the forthcoming infusion of Trumpredictability, the world is preparing “go bags” for the year(s) ahead. For both global political leaders and private sector firms, this preparation involves kicking the tires on current strategy, stress testing supply chains and sourcing, evaluating budget plans, and checking in with the man himself.
After Trump’s tariff threats, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew immediately to Mar-a-Lago to assess the damage. Inremarks afterward, Trudeau said it was an “excellent conversation” and that he “look[ed] forward to the work we can do together, again.” In his own posts, Trump said the two had discussed many important topics that would require the US and Canada to work together, including trade, illegal drugs, and energy. In the days that followed, Trump posted a photo of himself staring out at snow-capped mountains with the Canadian flag at his side – after jokingly saying the country could become America’s 51st state. It was a reminder to Trudeau that one dinner will not resolve everything.
European leaders, meanwhile, are debating a lot more defensive spending for the journey ahead. At early December meetings of NATO foreign ministers, Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked Trump for getting NATO territory allies to the 2% defensive spend target, calling it the “Trump push.” Rutte went on to say that – and not just because of Trump – he now believes strongly the 2% is not enough for long-term deterrence. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock similarly called on NATO to make big investments in European security beyond the standard 2% defensive target.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has seemingly demonstrated a new willingness to consider negotiations as a Trump return looms. After repeatedly vowing to continue the fight, Zelensky indicated this week he would be open to Western troops deploying in Ukraine as a security guarantee and step toward NATO membership to halt the war with Russia. The shift comes as polls suggest that Ukrainians are increasingly inclined toward a negotiated solution, but also after months of Trump campaign pledges to swiftly drive settlement and end the war. With Assad’s toppling in Syria, having long been propped up by Russia, Putin will be recalculating his own ambitions in Ukraine in real time in the coming weeks.
Unsurprisingly, Trump is not immune to the effect he is having on global behavior. He launched a site to track the “Promises Kept,” which tallies “securing our border,” “working towards international peace,” and “propelling economic growth” among his pre-inauguration successes.
The world at the close of 2024 stands on the precipice, awaiting the impact that another Trump presidency will bring. Trump 2.0 will be all-encompassing. His administration will pursue policies that reshape the global economy and international trade patterns. It will target ongoing fault lines and new challengers. And there will be unpredictability. Global leaders of all stripes are counting on being kept on their toes. Some across Europe have even begun ramping up crisis capabilities for citizens with initiatives advising on stockpiling and bunker building. They have six weeks to pack their bags.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.